2009 Season Previews

[MSBNYY]

I'm basically going to do this as I can, basing it on the lineups you have in, with a few educated guesses as to 2009 projections. 99 percent of these previews are going to basically use 2008 numbers as a guide, though trying to take into account fluke years and injuries.

It's hardly an exact science, but it's something to talk about before the season, and sometimes, I've been pretty accurate.

So let's start with Tom, who is currently tied for first place.

Pitching:

I realize Hamels already is having some elbow problems, but in the light most favorable to Tom, he's not hurt, and the latest report was pretty good. So let's say he has a carbon copy year.

Cliff Lee won't do as well as he did last year, even HE acknowledges that. He's simply not Sandy Koufax. So I'm dumping 120 points from him, which actually STILL puts him as one of the better pitchers in baseball.

Matt Cain is someone that is at the right age to have a breakout year. If I remember right, he also had some losses due to bullpen meltdowns and tough luck. I'm going to add 50 points to his totals.

Josh Johnson only threw 87.1 innings. If he is that bad again, Tom will not have him in his rotation. Yes, we can certainly debate as to Tom's managing prowess, but I think he's smart enough to get at least 175 innings out of that 5th spot. That alone is worth a 75 point bump. I think he has a few pitchers that he's not using right now that can help his team too.

As for Gonzalez, I'll assume he holds the closer job all year, and gets 350 points.

All in all, that's 2771 pitching points, give or take.

As for Tom's hitting, I'm going to say that his team is pretty weak at 2B and 3B. But both Zimmerman and Hudson are coming off 2008s that were far worse than their 2007s. The only adjustment I'll make is to split the difference, and take the average of the past 2 years for them.

That gives Tom 4409 hitting points, a total of 7180 possible points. That's a pretty good score, but everything has to break right for Tom, and a lot is dependent on his management ability.

Players need to bounce back. I think in reality, he will do less than that, but these previews tend to skew higher.

[$heriff Tom]

But both Zimmerman and Hudson are coming off 2008s that were far worse than their 2007s

Hudson is simply my backup plan, I am hoping Aaron Hill picks up where he left off before his concussion injury. A couple of years ago he hit .291 with 17 homers and over 70 RBIS for a middling Toronto team. He's only 26 and many are calling a breakout year. I got crap for taking him, but Orlando Hudson is not a bad fallback to have.

Zimmerman was also injured. If these are the worst of my problems, I am in good shape.

Either way, Ill be ok, I am more excited about this team than most I have put on the field.

[MSBNYY]

Yeah. It's the most exciting for you since 2008.

[yanxchick]

My guess is Hamels will have a better year than last year, if he stays healthy. Hamels didn't get the wins last year because he didn't get very good run support. His win-loss record doesn't reflect the type of pitcher he can be.

[$heriff Tom]

I feel the same way about Matt Cain.

[IronHorse4]

I really feel like Balls mailed in that prediction. I don't sense the effort.

[$heriff Tom]

Ya think?

Here is last years. It does look like he went into that with more gumption.

I agree with you, by the way. He only bothered to mention 2 of my hitters, and with absolutely no detail or reasonings. See below for how it SHOULD be done.

Time for one of the more anticipated previews--Tom's team. I guess if you had to describe Tom's strategy in 2008, it would be to load up on pitching depth and hope that he could pick some decent hitting up late. It's not the worst idea in the world, especially when Tom has been weak in pitching in past seasons.

Pitching is tricky in fantasy, and Tom's pitchers have not been consistent year in year out guys. He has two guys, Beckett and Lackey, coming off career years. They are both very good pitchers, but can they both repeat their Cy Young level performances? I doubt it, and I think combined, they are going to produce a good 100 points less than last year. Beckett already shut himself down with back spasms. If we're lucky, he will have a shit year and take Boston's repeat hopes on the DL with him, but assuming he's ok, I'm expecting at least a 50 point drop. And I will have to see Lackey repeat 2007 to believe it. But even factoring in that 100 point drop, both those guys should yield good results for Tom, barring injury.

Harang is a very good pitcher to have on your staff. The high strikeout total helps him be one of the more productive pitchers in the league, even though he had 11 losses. I can't see him being too far off his 2007 total, and if he can cut those losses down, he could even do better.

If Tom is going to lose 100 points on Beckett and Lackey, I think he will gain them back with Matt Cain. I realize that the Giants aren't exactly a great team, but Cain was a 200 inning pitcher that was 7-16. I think that's going to be tough to repeat. Oswalt should produce the same totals at minimum and is also capable of better. So in the end, barring some injuries or something unexpected, Tom's pitching should be at or near 2007 levels.

Hitting may also be a wash for Tom in terms of adjustments. Ramon Hernandez, if he stays healthy, should net Tom another 100 points. But I do not believe in Carlos Pena. The guy had one good year, and needs another one to prove he's not a fluke. I don't believe this guy is a 46 HR/ 120 RBI guy. And I don't believe the guy is going to produce 625 fantasy points again. He can have a solid year, and produce 500 points.

Tom doesn't have a very good backup for Pena, but I do think he has some solid trade bait on his bench, which is pretty good too.

Brad Wilkerson's an interesting utility guy for Tom. I'm going to bump his totals to 450 points. I don't think Wilkerson alone will do that, but Tom has some good people on his bench, and should be able to get kind of production out of that spot, unless he's an idiot.

So Tom's pitching projects at 2839 points. His hitting projects at 4468 for a whopping 7307 points. This projection was good enough to be in 2nd place last year.

Last year, it was hitting that carried Tom to 3rd place. This year, his pitching is his strength. Pitching is hardest to predict and hitters are more stable and better point producers in this league, so things really have to break Tom's way, but he definitely drafted a pitching staff that can outshine the rest of the league. It's easily the best staff of the teams I've looked at so far. I would rather be hitting heavy in this league with the same numbers, but in the end, a point is a point. Tom is the only original member of this league not to have a championship. He is the San Diego Padres of this league. He's been around a long time, but never won the big one.

This could be his best shot ever. I have more teams to look at, so I can't declare him the preseason favorite yet. But so far, he is.

[MSBNYY]

Moving on to Neil....

It seems I tend to be down on Neil's teams after the draft every year, and this year is no exception. As always, for the most part, I'm assuming the repeat performances.

In Neil's case, I didn't make any adjustments with hitting. Yes, he has ARod, who I'm expecting to have at least a 120 drop from last year's totals due to the fact he won't even get to the team until May, but at the same time, in the light most favorable to Neil, Vernon Wells will play a full season, and have a similar bump in production to cancel that out.

With good management, despite Sheff's anemic totals last year, Neil should be able to pull at least 400 points out of that utility spot.

Neil needs a lot of breaks to go his way for a decent pitching staff to rise. From last year's numbers, his pitching is significantly worse than Tom's. But at the same time, there's a chance things could break his way. No real issues with Haren or Dice K, but his top of the rotation isn't as strong as Tom's top. The final 3 starters are filled with questions.

I hope Pettitte comes back and has a better year than last year, but given that second half and his age, to give him a repeat performance is far. Barring injury, I don't see him doing worse. I bumped up Joba to 275 points. That's not great, and I hope he can do better. As a 5th starter, I would expect more wins out of him, especially given that he will face other 5th starters. I also feel that he has an innings limitation as well. So 275 is a fairly good guess for this year, and hopefully he will do better.

I think giving Jamie Moyer a repeat performance is also generous, given his age. Neil has some old men on his team, and the innings pitched category is lacking.

Overall, I have Neil getting 4416 hitting points, and 2220 pitching points, for a total of 6636.

[nobeernofun]

Neil's teams tend to be Yankcentric. So how long till he pick's up Cody Ransom to fill in for ARod ? Look's like Phil Hughes will be this years Kei Igawa.
BTW how come Neil has more Red Sox on his team then Yankees ? And come on he drafted Tim Wakefield.

[MSBNYY]

Moving on to Laura's team, I see some holes already. Looking at her lineup, she has Ryan Freel, who hasn't started more than 75 games since 2006. He got a whopping 87 points last year. That said, Laura would have to be a complete fool to not be able to pull at least 350 points out of that position, and that's a very low number. So I'll bump that position to 350, and by doing that, I'm probably being light. Similar comment on Elijah Dukes. He had good production in his limited at bats last season. In the light most favorable to Laura, I'll bump that up to 450 points.

Hitting is the most consistent part of fantasy baseball, and Laura took a lot of risks in the lineup. While Neil and Tom have fairly even hitting (and Tom having the pitching advantage), Laura's hitting only projects to 4004 points.

I would THINK she will do better in real life, but again, this is based on last year's production, and some guesses in her favor.

Laura seemed to use the top of her draft to fortify the starting pitching. Santana and Oswalt are a very good front 2. She has Matt Garza and Ted Lilly as her 3-4.

Ted Lilly may suck, but he's consistent and barring injury, should be good for another 390 points. Garza may have been good pitcher on the field, but his lack of Ks hurts his fantasy totals.

The most interesting pick for Laura was Fausto Carmona, the big risk in her rotation. If he returns to his 2007 form, which certainly is possible, that will be a big boost for her, and I think it's safe to say she won't have the indignity of being relegated again. If not though, at least she has Mark Buehrle. I'll give that spot 350 points, though it could be higher if all goes right.

That's 2748 pitching points for a total of 6752.

[IronHorse4]

I believe Lilly will fall short of last year. He is behind already, because he didn't pitch nearly as much as he needed to during the WBC. I believe this will cost him in April.

[MSBNYY]

An interesting theory. Could that get Laura relegated again?

[MSBNYY]

On to Larry's team...

Looking at the hitting first, I can say that Pablo Sandoval had a decent run over 145 at bats last year. He was called up last August, and has a very good bat, but shitty glove from what I read. The risk with him is how will he do over a full season? Hard to say, so I'll be kind and give him 400 points. He could do better, but if he does worse, it means he likely will not be starting and Larry will dump his ass. It's nice potential because he's a multiposition player and at the catcher position, that's good production.

I will bump up Troy Tulowitski too. He got a nice 550 points for Colorado 2 years ago, and had an injury filled 2008 campaign. Over a full season, giving him 475 points is conservative, yet a nice boost for Larry.

Larry also has a decent bench, led by Jose Lopez, who I think may win the job over Chone Figgins for smash fuckin' mouth at some point. If not, expect Larry to use him on the occasional week. Either way, given that Larry actually MANAGES his team, expect 425 points out of that slot.

Carl Crawford should also have a rebound year, which I'll conservatively give 500 points.

Even though he has a foot in the grave, in the light most favorable to Larry, I'll figure Thome will have his usual year. Good hitting team for Larry.

Larry's hitting comes in with a nice 4557 points.

On to the pitching. Larry's team has a solid top of the rotation led by Halladay, Burnett, and Volquez. If Burnett stays healthy, he's in great shape.

Adam Wainright put up decent numbers in 132 innings last year, but he's still Adam Wainright, and he'll be scored 300 points until he has a season where he does better.

I don't like Brandon Morrow as the 5th starter at all, but I also don't think he will keep the job for Larry. I do think that Larry will get a minimum 250 points at that slot, no matter who fills it.

I'm not a big fan of Roy Corcoran as a closer. Quick research had an article which said he may not have the job outright. If that's the case, Larry will have to either find a closer on the wire, or trade for one. No clue what will happen there, but the second closer is Larry's weak spot. Still, again, this is in the light most favorable to the manager, and if everything goes right, Larry will get a minimum of 275 points out of that slot.

That's a decent 2726 points for Larry's pitching, or 7283 points total, and dethroning Tom as the preseason favorite to date.

[$heriff Tom]

That's a decent 2726 points for Larry's pitching, or 7283 points total, and dethroning Tom as the preseason favorite to date.

Yeah, great, all cause you decided to be "kind" to Pablo Sandoval, and handing him all these closer points when he has a missing closer.

Thanks, Balls! Great job.

[$heriff Tom]

That's a decent 2726 points for Larry's pitching, or 7283 points total, and dethroning Tom as the preseason favorite to date.

Yeah, great, all cause you decided to be "kind" to Pablo Sandoval, and handing him all these closer points when he has a missing closer.

Thanks, Balls! Great job.

[MSBNYY]

Larry is one of the better managers in the league. That's factored in.

[$heriff Tom]

Where did he finish again last year?

[MSBNYY]

He's finished in the money 2 times in 4 seasons, with a championship and a runner up. You have finished in the money 2 times in 7 seasons, with a silver and a bronze.

[$heriff Tom]

Thats a bunch of bullcrap. The years he has been out of the money, he has been one of the worst teams one can find.

If anything, his inconsistency speaks to his managing being crap.

[jwmcc]

Kinda burns you when someone else gets praised for their managing ability, doesn't it?

[9]

By the way, I have iTunes running on random play, as I usually do, and Dio's "Don't Talk to Strangers" is playing right now. I'm here gagging thinking of Larry yelling, "What the FUCK is this SONG??"

[IronHorse4]

Larry is one of the best in-season managers in this league, without question.

If there is one spot where you can have a question going in and have it end up working out in spades, it's the closer role.

[$heriff Tom]

Larry is one of the best in-season managers in this league, without question.

Yeah, when he bothers to pay attention. For someone who has spent so much time running near the bottom of the standings, you guys sure stand in line to hock on his hose.

Balls, considering you are in such a giving mood regarding Larrys closers, what did you happen to give the other teams for their established closers in the way of points?

[MSBNYY]

If they're established and entrenched, I tend to give them what they got the previous year. And Justin is right about the closer issue. If there is one weak spot, especially in THIS league, that's the one you want.

[$heriff Tom]

Ok, but what did you give MY closers. You are very generous with his.

What did you give MY closers, of a returning Valverde, and a healthy Mike Gonzalez?

[MSBNYY]

Interesting question, since you sometimes accuse me of not reading your posts in detail. I left Valverde alone because he's entrenched, and bumped Gonzalez to 350. The Gonzalez bump is in the first post in this thread.

[area51]

Balls, just for the record, IF you don't want to really upset my hitters I suggest you give them a total of 5450 points ...

I am planning to have 1 hitter (Martinez) get around 500 points, 2 hitters (Jeter and Atkins) get around 550 points, 3 hitters (Cabrera, Granderson & Abreu) get around 600 points, 1 hitter (Utley) get around 650 points and 2 hitters (Holliday & Ortiz) get around 700 points.

I don't want people to quit this league, so I won't even bother to give you predictions on my super rotation full of aces ....... lol

This thing is over ...... pay up !!!!!!

Let's start betting some bottles....

[$heriff Tom]

As for Tom's hitting, I'm going to say that his team is pretty weak at 2B and 3B. But both Zimmerman and Hudson are coming off 2008s that were far worse than their 2007s. The only adjustment I'll make is to split the difference, and take the average of the past 2 years for them.

See, this is fucking ridiculous as well. Did you not realize that both Hudson and Zimmerman were hurt last year, and neither played more than 108 games?

In fact, both were well on their way to topping their 2007s before each missed a third of the year with injuries. Holy crap.

Also, I said 100 times I am hoping a healthy Hill is my 2B this year. You know, the guy who hit almost 20 homers and batted .290 before he too got hurt the next year.

All in all, that's 2771 pitching points, give or take.

Balls, I will bet you $1000 cash my pitching staff will top that.

My #5 had almost 200 points in 87 innings. Not only is he healthy right now, his fastball is up 3 MPH to boot. Im in dandy shape.

[MSBNYY]

Moving on to Knoblauch--

It's clear this year that he drafted the team himself. His first question mark comes at the 3B position, where he has Chris Davis. Davis' numbers were very good over 285 at bats, but there's no guarantee that doubling the at bats will double the numbers. Still, 400 points is a conservative estimate, and probably low, but I'll go with that. I don't like Rick Ankiel as his utility guy, but he should also be able to get 425 points out of that spot. I think Jimmy Rollins is going to have a much better year than last year, and last year was good, so I'm bumping Rollins to 600.

Scott Kazmir has been fairly consistent over the past 2 years, though he did lose about 50 innings due to injury. Assuming he's healthy again, pencil him in for 375 points. I can't be generous with Ryan Dempster, who I think had a career year last year. I'm dropping him to 380.

I'm not a fan of Clayton Kershaw, and given that this is also just a second year pitcher, there is risk, and he can't be annointed superstar status until he performs like a superstar for at least a full season. I do think Knoblauch should be able to pull at least 300 points in that spot though. Bronson Arroyo is Bronson Arroyo. Letting him keep his totals is generous.

4422 hitting points. 2303 pitching points. 6725 total.

[IronHorse4]

His boy Tommy Hanson that he couldn't stop talking about that weekend is starting in the minors, too.

Knoblauch's team is a disaster this year. I spent a lot of money on Jagermeister the night before the draft, and it appears to have paid off.

ETA: Hanson might make the club after all. Bobby Cox won't commit.