$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 26, 2009 15:05:48 GMT -5
See, the problem with Hanson is, even if he starts with the team, he wont pitch much. They will not rely on him, and kick up his inning counts. He will be babied. We saw what that did for Joba as a starter, and look at David Price in the minors now.
To put your stock in a "Tommy Hanson" is stupid.
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Post by IronHorse4 on Mar 26, 2009 15:29:13 GMT -5
I agree. It reminds me of a move a younger Tom Brown might have made circa 2003.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 26, 2009 16:32:26 GMT -5
Knoblauch was the pre-draft predicted 7th place finisher. Hope I didn't overestimate.
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Post by IronHorse4 on Mar 30, 2009 1:56:46 GMT -5
Some musings, looking at my projections so far...
- I had my best draft in years, and yet I still made mistakes. The two biggest mistakes I made were: a) taking Peavy over Webb, even though I think Peavy goes to a contender this season and rattles off wins; and b) leaving Derrek Lee on the table to be taken in Round 17 by Nettles. Shame on some of us for letting that happen. Lee's value dropped significantly for me this year, but I probably should have taken him before Mike Aviles. Other than that, I had a great draft, and it gets better the more I study it.
- I think Balls was pretty dead on with Tom. His team looks to be very strong going in. If Hudson does anything for him, and Zimmerman does what he can do, that point total is pretty accurate. I don't think there's much difference between Hill and Hudson, especially in a points league, but we'll find out. Strong team across the board though. I'm surprised that Tom picked Pujols over Reyes, but it's not like you can go wrong with Albert. And even with Josh Johnson at the back of the rotation, Tom's pitching is among the best in the league. In fact, I only projected one staff to be better than his, factoring in SP and RP.
- Laura's pitching, stem to stern, shakes out the best right now. Pitching is always harder to predict, especially closers, but hers right now is solid. Too bad her hitting is likely to drag her down.
- I don't even know that Neil will reach his projected point total this year. A-Rod is really good value at 47th overall, but there are holes. Even if the hitting overachieves, though, the pitching stinks.
- Larry's goof of taking Corcoran will be covered by Morrow getting the closing role. Problem is, that leaves a SP hole. There are options out there, though. He's a player away from serious contention.
- Knoblauch is in trouble this year with that pitching. But that hitting is spectacular, even with Ankiel in the utility role. Fair chance to repeat, or, at least, finish in the money. Need s alittle work though.
- I think Jose is fucked with that mediocre bunch of crap that qualifies at SP and RP, but even with zero depth in hitting, that starting hitting is projecting out as the best in the league right now.
- Pops is in deep shit if Mauer misses significant time. SP stinks right now, too.
- Suzy might be in trouble at SP as well. Beckett and Harden both are injury risks, and I'm not terribly high on Floyd. Lohse....yeah.
- Walkman John has a nice team this year, and I think he will compete for the money. SP is a question, but he should be all right.
- Nettles looks very strong as well. Could storm in the first year and win the whole damn thing. Getting Derrek Lee in Round 17 will be the reason he wins if he does. But we'll see what happens with the closers. Broxton is awesome but a question, and Mo isn't young. But Nettles is among the favorites according to the raw numbers.
- As of right now, Evan has the best team. That hitting is awesome.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 30, 2009 6:27:39 GMT -5
Moving to the Swingin' Dicks....
Justin says he has had his best draft in years. Without going into previous years, I have to agree. If his team stays healthy, he is pretty strong at every batting position. In fact, despite a very solid 445 points from Carlos Lee, I'm going to account for Lee's injury last year and bump him up 100 points. I actually think that by doing that, I may even be shortchanging him, but it's a fair call given previous non injured years.
That's the only adjustment I'll make for hitting, because for the most part, Justin drafted consistent, established guys that only need to do what they have been doing and stay healthy.
As is usually the case, when you are so solid in one area (hitting), it's hard to be equally solid in pitching, and Justin does have some question marks there. Pitching is not as consistent year to year, so it's much harder to project.
The first question mark is actually Peavy. Which Peavy is going to show up this year? The guy who scored 575 points in 2007, or the guy who was 10-11 and scored 312 points in 2008? Peavy's year was cut short last year due to some injury, but the guy's ERA was still 2.85. So it's not so much that Peavy pitched badly, it's more that he didn't get any run support. When you have a 2.85ERA, you really need to have a shitty team to have such low numbers, so assuming Peavy pitches like last year and stays healthy, the law of averages should catch up to him, and he should get a good 150 more points minimum. That may be a low estimate because a healthy Peavy maintaining his skill will also throw another 50 innings.
Felix Hernandez, like Peavy, had a very good year for a shitty team. Hard to say if Seattle will be as bad as last year, but again, with an ERA of 3.45, Hernandez should do better this year. There's hard luck involved there, and the law of averages should have a pitcher in the AL with an ERA of 3.45, posting a winning record. The 267 points he got in 2008 just seems too low, and I think bumping him up to 350 is also a conservative estimate should he stay healthy and pitch like he did last year.
Just look at Zack Greinke, who put up very similar numbers and had exactly 350 points. The hardest pitcher to project is Gallardo, who hasn't had a great year in the majors yet, mostly due to his youth. Not established, never played a full season, and only threw 24 innings last year. But he does have good reports. I'll be conservative and go with 300 points, because I figure if Gallardo shits the bed, Justin will yank him out of the rotation early, and either use his bench or the waiver wire to find someone who can produce 300 points (which isn't really that high of a goal).
Justin's bullpen isn't as strong as the other aspects of his team, but if all goes RIGHT for him, it's fine. Both Qualls and Hanrahan are projected to open the season as their team's closers. If that's the case, and they hold the job all year, that's all Justin will need to get the 600 points out of his pen that even shitty closers get if they hold the job all year.
4575 hitting points 2464 pitching points
7039 total.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 30, 2009 8:19:41 GMT -5
Balls' later reports have been very informative and well done. Justins was a top notch job, a good summary. Its interesting to compare the two. Im very much looking forward to this season.
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Post by IronHorse4 on Mar 30, 2009 14:32:06 GMT -5
I agree. I think the analysis has to do with paying a bit more attention to the tragic story of a once-great champion who has fallen on the hardest of times in recent years. Will this be the year I rise like the phoenix? I think it will be. I vowed to re-focus last year, but that effort was interrupted by the transition from Pittsburgh to Chicago. This year that is not an issue. Either way, I'm always the story more than many, for better or worse.
As for Balls' projections, his pitching numbers are dead-on with what I have based purely on numbers, though I am expecting more of Gallardo. Can't project it, but Gallardo's main injury last year was a complete fluke. It also wasn't to his arm, which is key. He will do better than the numbers project. Someone will likely due worse, so it may balance out. As for hitting, I have my hitting about 200 points higher than Balls has it, due to things like Cameron's suspension last year (though I don't know that I'll have him in there for very long) and growth of guys like Fielder and Pence. But it's not too far off. All in all, anyone who projects at 7000+, which is about half the league, has a chance to win the whole thing. A little good luck and some good managing will be the difference from here with those teams.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 30, 2009 17:27:28 GMT -5
The thing with Gallardo is that he's all potential. Never done it on the big league level, so it's hard to give him a super great projection, even if he gets there. Interesting point on Cameron. I admit forgetting about that, but he is another year older, and I don't know how much he has left in the tank. Ks don't matter in this league, but that's a LOT of strikeouts to put in the lineup daily.
What helps with your team is that you got a LOT of established guys that have been consistent. It makes it a little easier because there's less speculation. I'm not looking forward to tomorrow's preview, because there's potential to be off by a lot. Pops' team is a tough one.
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Post by IronHorse4 on Mar 30, 2009 18:20:13 GMT -5
No argument on Gallardo. I have him projected at 300 points, too. I just have a hunch he will do better. He was a reach, and he was my fourth SP selected. I just have a feeling he will have an awesome season, and he will more than make up for Sheets. Unfortunately for the Brewers, he won't make up for Sabathia.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 31, 2009 7:59:43 GMT -5
So moving to Pops. Like I said earlier, Pops' team is harder to predict because he took some chances. Beginning with the hitting...
I think it's kind of funny that a guy like Pops, who can't spell the P.T.A., has a guy like AJ Pierzynski as his catcher. Pierzynski had a decent, though not spectacular year last year in fantasy baseball, and while it was a good 50 points better in 2008 than 2007, I think that in the light most favorable to Pops, we can keep him as is. Guys like Alexei Ramirez are a pain in the neck to predict. Will he have a sophomore slump, or will he get better? I think because of that, again, holding the line is fair.
I am going to knock Nady down to 425 points. I think he had a career like year, and given his injury history, the fact that he's hardly a superstar, and Girardi's likely desire to get Swisher and Melky at bats, I don't expect a repeat performance from last year. 425 may actually be generous.
Overall, Pops' hitting is pretty strong. He has both Berkman and Reyes. That's a good 1b/SS combo. Not to mention--he has Beltran at CF. That's 3 players in his lineup that had over 650 points last year. In reality, I wouldn't expect a repeat performance from all three, but this projection again, gives Pops every benefit of the doubt.
Turning to his pitching, for Pops to compete, he needs LOTS of breaks to go his way.
Starting with Carlos Zambrano, who didn't pitch 200 innings last season, I think I will bump him up to a conservative but fair 400 points. His numbers weren't THAT great last year, but they were solid enough that 400 points is fair. He's not like Peavy who just was hard luck. In fact, he pitched on a very good team and had a respectable record. He just wasn't as good and wasn't as healthy. Assuming a decent year and another decent run by the Cubs, 400 points may be on the low end.
I'm going to bump Pelfrey up to 325 points. Assuming he continues to mature, the Mets, with a better pen, should be able to improve those numbers from last year. More important, even if he sucks, Pops has an injured Santana on his bench, and he should more than make up those points. I don't think Cook is going to outpitch his 2008 performance. He is what he is. Jurrgens has potential to do better, so I'm actually going to bump him to 350. He had a good ERA, and with another 25 or so innings, and some decisions breaking his way, that's fair.
As for the Pops pen, both his closers pitched full seasons last year, so no reason to adjust.
Pops has a strong DL. He has guys that could come back and make a big impact on his team. Of course, there is always a risk with that. They could not come back, or they could come back and suck. You never know. Lots of risks. Pops' best chance will rest on the fact that like Larry, he's one of the better in season managers in the league.
4729 hitting points 2286 pitching points
7015 total.
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Mar 31, 2009 13:15:50 GMT -5
and the rich get richer with brandon morrow moving over to closer.
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Post by IronHorse4 on Mar 31, 2009 14:35:00 GMT -5
And on the other side of the coin, Neil's utility hitter was just released.
Though the Phillies are interested in Gary Sheffield. With 499 home runs, I'm sure he'll get a job somewhere. But likely only as a part-timer.
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Post by area51 on Mar 31, 2009 14:47:05 GMT -5
Balls
You are leaving the best for last??
Great idea, that will give me time to try to get a few bottles from some of these guys/girls before you scare them off with your review of my team.
Ok ... let's get to the point... anyone, and I mean anyone wants to bet a bottle (as long as it isn't Blue label or anything like that), just let me know.... my team against yours ... one on one
By the way Tom, when you pay up at next year's draft I don't want to hear how much you had to pay for the bottle or bottles ...lol
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Post by IronHorse4 on Mar 31, 2009 15:09:48 GMT -5
I'm not betting Jose. I have a good feeling I will finish ahead of him this year, but last year was the first time I bet bottles against Jose, and I had my worst finish ever. I think I'm done with that.
That, and his hitting is ridiculously good (though his pitching, overall, blows).
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 31, 2009 17:22:44 GMT -5
Uptown had the funniest comment ever about Sheffield's 499 HRs.
"He's Bernie Mac."
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Apr 1, 2009 6:36:59 GMT -5
Actually Jose, you are last on the list. It's the way Yahoo ordered it at random.
Today's preview is Ignorant Evan.
The first issue with Evan's team is Mike Napoli, his starting catcher. He put up 20 HRs last year in 227 at bats. Hell of a run. But in his entire career, he has never had more than 268 at bats. That makes him very tough to predict. He spent the offseason recovering from an injury, but may be ready by opening day. I'm going to be VERY generous with him and give 400 points. In a full season, he should easily get that, but again, he just hasn't played that much. I have to figure Evan, also a good in season manager, will do something if he doesn't produce.
Evan's other hitters are solid. Alfonso Soriano should get 550 points this year. He missed a good chunk of time due to injury last season and he's never been injury prone.
I'm also going to bump Evan's utility spot up to 500 points because he has 2 500 point guys on his bench so if Gordon shits the bed, he has replacements.
Evan's pitching, like so many others in this league, isn't as strong. It's hard to trust pitchers returning from bad injuries, but one of them is Eric Bedard. Bedard, pre-injury, was too good to not be able to get 350 points in his sleep, minimum, and if he is truly himself, 400 is not out of the question. His big drawback is playing with Seattle. I'll stick with 350.
There's nothing special about Evan's bottom of the rotation. Jimenez on Colorado was a mediocre pitcher in Colorado. Vazquez is Vazquez. I don't see much room for improvement there. He is what he is. And same goes with John Maine. Bumping Maine up to 300 points is about as far as I will go.
Evan's bullpen, in the light most favorable to him, sees Francisco as the closer all year and getting 300 points. Not too much depth in the closer department for Evan.
Evan's best pitcher is a Marlin. That really could be a problem if things don't break entirely his way.
Pitching points: 2283 Hitting points: 4842
Total--7125
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Post by MSBNYY on Apr 2, 2009 6:18:40 GMT -5
Four teams to go, and it's time to look at the Bureau. I have to say, John has been the biggest fantasy baseball disappointment in league history. The man is an outstanding individual in every facet of life--except fantasy baseball. Given his profession, this is the ultimate irony. It's kind of like a college math professor getting beaten on the SAT by his students.
But let's actually look at his team.
We start with the returning Jorge Posada, who had a career year in 2007, and a DL shortened year in 2008. Jorge seems to be healthy again, but of course, he's 2 years older than his last good year. I would think Girardi may be a little cautious with the guy, but hard to say. He got 500 points in 2007, but again, career year. To give him 425 is generous, though as a Yankee fan, of course I root for more.
Mark De Rosa, if he produces this way again, is a GREAT pick for John. Not only does he play 4 positions, he is a 500 point guy. He IS coming off a much better 2008 than 2007, so he may not produce that way again. However, for purposes of this prediction, he will.
I'm also going to bump Longoria up to 500 points. He only played in 122 games last year and got 450. If he plays 150 games, 500 is actually conservative.
John's lone hitting question mark is Denard Span, whose career has only spanned half a season. It's hard to predict how a guy with 347 career at bats will do over the course of a season. His numbers are very good for those at bats because he steals bases, but there's no career body of consistent work, and hell, Shane Spencer had a short span great run too. Not saying Span is Spencer, but it's too tough to predict how a guy is going to do in his second year. So I'll go with 400 points, and for John's sake, let's hope that's on the light side.
Turning to pitching, I think I will drop Sabathia to 575 points. Not that he's not capable of doing so well, but I don't think his IP count will be as high in NY. I think the Brewers knew they weren't keeping him, and didn't give a shit about his arm, so they threw him constantly. The Yankees have him for the long haul, and I'm guessing the CGs and IP will be down. Plus, given baseball history, people who come to NY tend to not pitch as well at first.
Jon Lester may be a cancer in the clubhouse, but I actually think he may do a little better this year than last year. I'll give him 450 points, and he may do even better than that. If he could strike people out, he'd be a fantasy golden boy.
John Danks is being bumped up to 375. He was really good last year, and I think better than his 12-9 record. If he pitches at the same level, he should do a little better in the wins column.
I'm not a fan of Brett Myers, but John has a strong enough bench to get 300 out of that slot, and because Matt Capps coming back from an injury, he'll get the requisite 300 minimum points for a closer if he stays healthy. Of course, for purposes of these predictions, no one gets hurt and everyone rebounds.
2695 pitching points 4675 hitting points
7370 total. John so far, would be the preseason favorite, but again, a lot has to break his way. This does look to be his best draft ever.
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Post by yanxchick on Apr 3, 2009 18:34:17 GMT -5
Nearly everyone is projected to have a plus-7,000-point season, which isn't going to happen. If you're team finishes over 7,000, you're pretty much a lock for the money.
These previews are bogus.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Apr 4, 2009 9:38:19 GMT -5
Keep in mind, EVERYTHING has to break right. That NEVER happens.
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