Post by IronHorse4 on Mar 15, 2010 18:50:54 GMT -5
Did some number-crunching based on projected stats and translated point values. Bear in mind, it’s a long season. These projections do take into account players that currently have injuries, and whether or not they will play a full season. But that can’t always be accurately predicted.
Also, keep in mind that these are based on the best players currently on each roster, as they fit into position allotments. It’s almost impossible to have the same starting team all year, so this will change some. But these numbers are fairly accurate. These also do not take into account the fantasy baseball aptitude of the owners. This is just for entertainment purposes.
But some of it is pretty entertaining. Here they are, in order of projected finish:
JOSE
Jose had a wonderful draft. The crafty veteran, former champion, and charter member of the league has drafted a great team. I’ll avoid saying things like “some things need to break right,” because that’s really true of everyone. But a key will be Reyes. If Reyes starts playing and is effective on May 1, Jose has a good shot at running away with it. But even if he has Theriot in there all year, he only loses 60 points or so off that value. If Ortiz settles for a season like last year, take away another 40 points. Keep an eye on Roberts’ back at 2B as well. Pitching is very solid as well, even with Dice-K. As it stands right now, Jose is the team to beat.
Hitting: 4,845; Pitching 2,914
Mile High Burritos 7: 7,759
JUSTIN
Yup…had a nice draft again. The rumors of my death a couple of years ago were strongly exaggerated. Coming off that last-day steal of second place, The Dicks look to be contending for the crown yet again, as we have the best chance of claiming a third crown this season among the 2-time champions. Blanton is the weak link in the starting rotation, but he’s still among the better number-5 starters in this league. The hitting is interesting this year. Lots of speed in the outfield, which is something that often gets neglected. But those SBs can be valuable. No shortage of power either. It’s a balanced squad overall, anchored by the man at the 1 bag, 1st pick Al Pujols. Devastating loss if this team does not finish in the money.
Hitting: 4,740; Pitching: 2,602
The Swingin’ Dicks: 7,342
TOM
Our fearless league co-founder has put himself in a great position yet again this season, with a very solid shot to finish in the money again. Tom wasn’t too happy with his pitching coming out of the draft, and that was an accurate feeling on his part. However, expectations are tempered for Peavy due to the injury history and the move to the American League and a launching pad on the South Side. Still, I personally feel there is a terrific chance Peavy blows away his projection and tacks on another 100 points to that pitching total, which I believe keeps Tom in the money. Hitting is always in the top half of the league on the HHO, and this year is no different.
Hitting: 4,756; Pitching: 2,352
High Hard Ones: 7,108
POPS
Uncle Pops has a very good chance at the money this year. His team is almost neck-and-neck with Tom’s, right down to the expectations of the pitching. I think Scott Feldman is a key here. If he can find a way to win a few more games, he will really elevate the Solons’ mound laborers. Also counting on Ibanez to have a solid season coming off sports hernia surgery at the age of 38. Kubel can be a real turning point as well, depending on how kind the new Target Field is to power. Javy Vazquez is making a similar leap to Jake Peavy, but I don’t know if he handles it as well as projected.
Hitting: 4,716; Pitching: 2,362
Solons: 7,078
LAURA
This is not a typo. Laura had a very good draft. There are several risks on this squad, and that leads to a lower hitting projection. But if Quentin returns to form, you can add at least 100 points to that overall total – putting her squarely in the money hunt. 3 Red Sox in her starting rotation (if she so desires) means a good number of wins as well. Reigning AL Cy Young winner Greinke anchors the staff. Could be a grumpy nuptial weekend if Laura’s the one who passes her brand-new brother-in-law on the last weekend of the season.
Hitting: 4,379; Pitching: 2,664
NJ Barflies of LI: 7,043
NETTLES
Rounding out the top half of the table is our second-year man from Hoboken, looking to improve on last year’s impressive fourth-place showing. Good chance to do just that with a strong hitting lineup and a pitching staff that I believe will out-perform projections. The starter to keep an eye on here is David Price, who is very likely to overshoot projections. The question is, will Huston Street be healthy enough to not offset the Price gain? If he is, the Nine are primed for a shot at a return on this year’s investment.
Hitting: 4,698; Pitching: 2,277
Hoboken Nine: 6,975
GROVER
A hearty welcome back to our resident Muppet-turned-50s-crooner (minus the voice). Grover looks to not set a record this year by snapping his resuming streak of 47 consecutive sessions without a victory. If he does break the record, it will be a very happy birthday to me, as the record will be broken in the waning hours of August 21. But enough of that. Grover has a good enough team to not only win a session, but challenge for a rebate at years’ end. Strong hitting and good pitching have him in the mix, and you can boost that number even higher if Johan Santana gets back to 200 innings. Sadly, I believe 56 consecutive losing sessions will still be the number (not) to beat for a long time.
Hitting: 4,536; Pitching: 2,409
The Abortions: 6,945
EVAN
Here’s where things start to take a turn. Once again, Evan decided to eschew pitching for the reliable, big-number hitting. As a result he accumulated the best hitting in the league – and the worst pitching. Balance is the key here, and for the second year in a row, the Incalls appear to have left their pitching in Tudor City. Look for some trading here for the erstwhile Hookers to stay competitive.
Hitting: 4,888; Pitching: 1,969
Forest Hills Incalls: 6,857
KNOBLAUCH
One of our resident two-time champs*, Knoblauch lauded the decision not to drink during the draft for the first time, praising the clarity with which he left the draft. What wasn’t as clear to him was that he didn’t have a very good draft. Unlike Evan’s team, the Easy have a more balanced team. Problem is, both hitting and pitching are equally mediocre. I think Montero and Andrus will be worth a little more that they project to be, and Brett Anderson should be better as well. So perhaps it’s not as bad as it appears. But moves aplenty will have to be made in order to prevent this from being just another lost wager.
Hitting: 4,496; Pitching: 2,319
Just Too Easy: 6,815
WALKMAN JOHN
The man with more access to stats that the rest of us probably have never heard of, it’s been a challenge thus far for John to take advantage of the…well…advantage. I think the team is better than projected, but not sure that it will be all that much better. Good chance that Rajai Davis does a little better, and that Max Scherzer does a lot better, but even if that’s all worth 150 points, it may not be enough this year. Pitching is very good regardless. Might be a trade possibility or two. He’ll get the hang of it one of these years. But there’s certainly no rush, if you ask me. Welcome back!
Hitting: 4,294; Pitching: 2,511
The Bureau: 6,805
MILTON
Another wayward member comes back to the flock, as we welcome back Milton with a resounding round of applause. He made the point that the draft is a lot more fun with him around, and you’ll find no argument from this veteran. Perhaps the high point of the draft was Milton’s 12th-round selection of the Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg, who is not likely to get more than 125 innings this year – which may or may not all occur in the majors. Only thing funnier was him explaining that Strasburg would be penciled in as his 5th starter – even though he had yet to select his 3rd and 4th starters. Missed you, buddy. Good hitting opens up the possibility for Larry to ransack his team for parts as the season goes along.
Hitting: 4,607; Pitching: 2,159
Brooklyn Bad Boys: 6,766
LARRY
By a cruel twist of fate, Larry was awarded the 12th pick in the draft, which might make some karmic sense as the defending champion if last year’s 2nd-place finisher didn’t end up with the top pick. The defending champion has a strong reputation for being the best in-season manager in the game, and boy is he going to need it this year. Thankfully he has his old personal Brooklyn pawn shop back to grab a couple of winners and stay competitive in this thing. Not much to say here…Larry can never be counted out, given his track record as simply the best player in this league. But that reputation will be put to the ultimate test this year.
Hitting: 4,488; Pitching: 2,083
smash-fuckin-mouth: 6,571
So to recap, this is your projected order of finish for 2010:
Mile High Burritos 7 7,759
The Swingin’ Dicks 7,342
High Hard Ones 7,108
Solons 7,078
NJ Barflies of LI 7,043
Hoboken Nine 6,975
The Abortions 6,945
Forest Hills Incalls 6,857
Just Too Easy 6,815
The Bureau 6,805
Brooklyn Bad Boys 6,766
smash-fuckin-mouth 6,571
Good luck to one and all!
Also, keep in mind that these are based on the best players currently on each roster, as they fit into position allotments. It’s almost impossible to have the same starting team all year, so this will change some. But these numbers are fairly accurate. These also do not take into account the fantasy baseball aptitude of the owners. This is just for entertainment purposes.
But some of it is pretty entertaining. Here they are, in order of projected finish:
JOSE
Jose had a wonderful draft. The crafty veteran, former champion, and charter member of the league has drafted a great team. I’ll avoid saying things like “some things need to break right,” because that’s really true of everyone. But a key will be Reyes. If Reyes starts playing and is effective on May 1, Jose has a good shot at running away with it. But even if he has Theriot in there all year, he only loses 60 points or so off that value. If Ortiz settles for a season like last year, take away another 40 points. Keep an eye on Roberts’ back at 2B as well. Pitching is very solid as well, even with Dice-K. As it stands right now, Jose is the team to beat.
Hitting: 4,845; Pitching 2,914
Mile High Burritos 7: 7,759
JUSTIN
Yup…had a nice draft again. The rumors of my death a couple of years ago were strongly exaggerated. Coming off that last-day steal of second place, The Dicks look to be contending for the crown yet again, as we have the best chance of claiming a third crown this season among the 2-time champions. Blanton is the weak link in the starting rotation, but he’s still among the better number-5 starters in this league. The hitting is interesting this year. Lots of speed in the outfield, which is something that often gets neglected. But those SBs can be valuable. No shortage of power either. It’s a balanced squad overall, anchored by the man at the 1 bag, 1st pick Al Pujols. Devastating loss if this team does not finish in the money.
Hitting: 4,740; Pitching: 2,602
The Swingin’ Dicks: 7,342
TOM
Our fearless league co-founder has put himself in a great position yet again this season, with a very solid shot to finish in the money again. Tom wasn’t too happy with his pitching coming out of the draft, and that was an accurate feeling on his part. However, expectations are tempered for Peavy due to the injury history and the move to the American League and a launching pad on the South Side. Still, I personally feel there is a terrific chance Peavy blows away his projection and tacks on another 100 points to that pitching total, which I believe keeps Tom in the money. Hitting is always in the top half of the league on the HHO, and this year is no different.
Hitting: 4,756; Pitching: 2,352
High Hard Ones: 7,108
POPS
Uncle Pops has a very good chance at the money this year. His team is almost neck-and-neck with Tom’s, right down to the expectations of the pitching. I think Scott Feldman is a key here. If he can find a way to win a few more games, he will really elevate the Solons’ mound laborers. Also counting on Ibanez to have a solid season coming off sports hernia surgery at the age of 38. Kubel can be a real turning point as well, depending on how kind the new Target Field is to power. Javy Vazquez is making a similar leap to Jake Peavy, but I don’t know if he handles it as well as projected.
Hitting: 4,716; Pitching: 2,362
Solons: 7,078
LAURA
This is not a typo. Laura had a very good draft. There are several risks on this squad, and that leads to a lower hitting projection. But if Quentin returns to form, you can add at least 100 points to that overall total – putting her squarely in the money hunt. 3 Red Sox in her starting rotation (if she so desires) means a good number of wins as well. Reigning AL Cy Young winner Greinke anchors the staff. Could be a grumpy nuptial weekend if Laura’s the one who passes her brand-new brother-in-law on the last weekend of the season.
Hitting: 4,379; Pitching: 2,664
NJ Barflies of LI: 7,043
NETTLES
Rounding out the top half of the table is our second-year man from Hoboken, looking to improve on last year’s impressive fourth-place showing. Good chance to do just that with a strong hitting lineup and a pitching staff that I believe will out-perform projections. The starter to keep an eye on here is David Price, who is very likely to overshoot projections. The question is, will Huston Street be healthy enough to not offset the Price gain? If he is, the Nine are primed for a shot at a return on this year’s investment.
Hitting: 4,698; Pitching: 2,277
Hoboken Nine: 6,975
GROVER
A hearty welcome back to our resident Muppet-turned-50s-crooner (minus the voice). Grover looks to not set a record this year by snapping his resuming streak of 47 consecutive sessions without a victory. If he does break the record, it will be a very happy birthday to me, as the record will be broken in the waning hours of August 21. But enough of that. Grover has a good enough team to not only win a session, but challenge for a rebate at years’ end. Strong hitting and good pitching have him in the mix, and you can boost that number even higher if Johan Santana gets back to 200 innings. Sadly, I believe 56 consecutive losing sessions will still be the number (not) to beat for a long time.
Hitting: 4,536; Pitching: 2,409
The Abortions: 6,945
EVAN
Here’s where things start to take a turn. Once again, Evan decided to eschew pitching for the reliable, big-number hitting. As a result he accumulated the best hitting in the league – and the worst pitching. Balance is the key here, and for the second year in a row, the Incalls appear to have left their pitching in Tudor City. Look for some trading here for the erstwhile Hookers to stay competitive.
Hitting: 4,888; Pitching: 1,969
Forest Hills Incalls: 6,857
KNOBLAUCH
One of our resident two-time champs*, Knoblauch lauded the decision not to drink during the draft for the first time, praising the clarity with which he left the draft. What wasn’t as clear to him was that he didn’t have a very good draft. Unlike Evan’s team, the Easy have a more balanced team. Problem is, both hitting and pitching are equally mediocre. I think Montero and Andrus will be worth a little more that they project to be, and Brett Anderson should be better as well. So perhaps it’s not as bad as it appears. But moves aplenty will have to be made in order to prevent this from being just another lost wager.
Hitting: 4,496; Pitching: 2,319
Just Too Easy: 6,815
WALKMAN JOHN
The man with more access to stats that the rest of us probably have never heard of, it’s been a challenge thus far for John to take advantage of the…well…advantage. I think the team is better than projected, but not sure that it will be all that much better. Good chance that Rajai Davis does a little better, and that Max Scherzer does a lot better, but even if that’s all worth 150 points, it may not be enough this year. Pitching is very good regardless. Might be a trade possibility or two. He’ll get the hang of it one of these years. But there’s certainly no rush, if you ask me. Welcome back!
Hitting: 4,294; Pitching: 2,511
The Bureau: 6,805
MILTON
Another wayward member comes back to the flock, as we welcome back Milton with a resounding round of applause. He made the point that the draft is a lot more fun with him around, and you’ll find no argument from this veteran. Perhaps the high point of the draft was Milton’s 12th-round selection of the Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg, who is not likely to get more than 125 innings this year – which may or may not all occur in the majors. Only thing funnier was him explaining that Strasburg would be penciled in as his 5th starter – even though he had yet to select his 3rd and 4th starters. Missed you, buddy. Good hitting opens up the possibility for Larry to ransack his team for parts as the season goes along.
Hitting: 4,607; Pitching: 2,159
Brooklyn Bad Boys: 6,766
LARRY
By a cruel twist of fate, Larry was awarded the 12th pick in the draft, which might make some karmic sense as the defending champion if last year’s 2nd-place finisher didn’t end up with the top pick. The defending champion has a strong reputation for being the best in-season manager in the game, and boy is he going to need it this year. Thankfully he has his old personal Brooklyn pawn shop back to grab a couple of winners and stay competitive in this thing. Not much to say here…Larry can never be counted out, given his track record as simply the best player in this league. But that reputation will be put to the ultimate test this year.
Hitting: 4,488; Pitching: 2,083
smash-fuckin-mouth: 6,571
So to recap, this is your projected order of finish for 2010:
Mile High Burritos 7 7,759
The Swingin’ Dicks 7,342
High Hard Ones 7,108
Solons 7,078
NJ Barflies of LI 7,043
Hoboken Nine 6,975
The Abortions 6,945
Forest Hills Incalls 6,857
Just Too Easy 6,815
The Bureau 6,805
Brooklyn Bad Boys 6,766
smash-fuckin-mouth 6,571
Good luck to one and all!