2010 PROJECTIONS!!!!!

[$heriff Tom]

As for my team I hope to have Ben Sheets as my #5 by May

Good luck with that! He is totally looking lost out there. He was the first pitcher in the modern era to see 10 runs score on him without an out recorded on him the other day. Yes, its spring, but come on.

Ibanez is one of those guys insiders are saying to stay wary or away from. He totally fell apart in the second half of the year, and inevitably helped cost me 2nd or even 1st. He was terrible and if I had any options, he would have been out of my lineup.

And please, stop trying to spin the offensive projections for someone on the Pirates!

[MSBNYY]

On to our defending champ, Larry...

I think it's safe to say Larry didn't have his best draft. As he said, at least 4 times, Nettles picked the guy he wanted right before he was going to go. Larry took a lot of chances, on injured guys coming back. He also has some up and comers.

Like most, he managed to grab two decent closers in Aardsma and Madson. If things break his way, his team should do better than these projections.

Chris Davis is an interesting case--the type of player I would loathe if he was a Yankee. Low average, tons of Ks, and he only had 391 ABs last year. In theory, with another 100-150 ABs, he could hit 35 HRs, if he doesn't strike his way out of the lineup. Yet even if that happens, Larry has Lance Berkman, so he'll be fine.

Manny Ramirez, even if he's off the juice, should still put up 500 points over a full season, as long as he isn't injured. He did miss over 50 games last year.

Josh Hamilton is kind of tough to predict, given his injury filled 2009 looks to be followed with some injuries in 2010. I don't trust his health, but I do believe he can do better than that 272 from last year. If he has a decent season, he should be able to grab 450.

4447 hitting points.

Larry's pitching is even tougher to predict. I like that he has at least 2 200 inning guys in Wandy Rodriguez and Edwin Jackson. Neither are expected to win the Cy Young, but they will anchor his rotation if healthy. Pettitte is Pettitte. He could get hurt, or he could be his usual self. For purposes of the preview, we go with his usual self.

Tommy Hanson is a very interesting pitcher that could pay major dividends for Larry. He has to translate his 2009 stuff over a full season. It makes it tough to predict. The guy got 284 points in 127 IP, which was due mainly to being stingy 2.89 ERA. Obviously, that significantly improves chances of getting the win.

Will major league hitters adjust to him in his sophomore year? One would think yes. But for purposes of this projection, I'm going to give him 400 points. Lots of potential there. It could blow up in his face, but he could be a golden boy.

Brandon Webb also has the potential to be a nice pickup for Larry when he gets back on the field. Projected to possibly return in late April, his last report was actually decent, showing improved velocity. Still, surgery is surgery, so you never know. What I do know is Larry is not going to get 76 points like Wade Davis did last year. Of course, Davis only pitched about 36 innings, and has some nice potential as well.

Either way, Larry will find a way to get 275 points minimum out of that 5th starter spot.

2347 pitching points.

I would add 125-150 points to Larry's team because he is the best in season manager of the league, but I think I already accounted for that in the projections. Some of these guys may do better, some may not, but even if they don't, Larry should adjust. I'm giving him a little more breaks than Justin did in the pitching department, but again, that's so hard to predict.

I can't say this will be a championship year for Larry, but he projects at 6794.

[grover]

I project to be the best looking guy in the league.

Hey T, you like my Roy Orbison hair?

[$heriff Tom]

Eh, let me comment on Larry for a minute here.

Lots of people think Manny Ramirez is in serious decline. Horrible last few weeks of the season.

Edwin Jackson??? Thats a non-factor. And no way Wandy repeats. Larry is in serious trouble with that staff. Oh, and Brandon Webb?? April my ass. Dude, serious chance he does NoTHing this year. And IF he does come back, he will be on a pitchcount and limit that will make Joba look like Wilbur Wood.

[MSBNYY]

Laura's preview will be delayed until she puts a lineup in.

So onto the most controversial preview of the bunch--Sheriff Tom.

It's not so much that Tom's team is any different than the rest of you, but well, it's Tom.

Not matter what happens, controversy follows him.

Let's start with the hitting.

Will Shin Soo Choo improve or maintain last year's numbers? For purposes of this preview, he will.

Tom has a very solid lineup. No real weaknesses--as long as these guys play up to their 2009 levels. If one player gets hurt, it won't really damage his team that badly though Brian McCann staying healthy is pretty damn important.

The only guy in his lineup that I don't like is Milton Bradley, in part because he's a doofus, but also because I wouldn't trust his reliability. He does tend to produce when on the field, but even if he pulls a Nick Adenhart, Tom has a good backup in Hawpe, so it's not a concern.

I really only have to bump up the RF spot, to 490, and project Tom's hitting at a nice 4722 points.

His pitching looks good too, especially at the top of the rotation.

Will Adam Wainright repeat last year?

Haren and Wainright were both 200K guys who threw 230 innings. That's a nice top 2. They combined for over 1000 points between them last year which is dominant in a league like this one.

His rotation does tend to weaken a bit after that. Peavy is interesting. He's no longer in the minor leagues anymore, and will face better hitting in the AL. He didn't do much last year due to injury, but he is healthy now. He may not do as well in the AL as he did in SD, but that doesn't mean he isn't still a very good pitcher. I'll bump him to 375 points, which is above average.

Tim Hudson is also a hard one to predict this year, since he's also coming off a rough 2009. He's nowhere near the pitcher he once was, but even if he sucks, it's not like Tom won't get someone else to play. I'll throw 275 points in that slot.

I don't like his 5th starter, Aaron Harang. What was once a promising pitcher a few years ago, he's just sucked the past 2 years--especially in fantasy baseball. If he gets 200 points, that will be better than the last 2 years for him.

That said, Tom has a solid pen, with Hoffman and Bell. I don't have much faith in Hoffman because of his age and that he has shown he is human. But I also see no reason for him to do worse than 2009 barring injury.

2579 pitching points.

If all breaks Tom's way, that's 7301 points.

Barring injury, it's going to be a good year for Tom.

[$heriff Tom]

One thing to add, Hudson is getting rave reviews this spring, and he could help me a lot if things hold true. That could be my sleeper pick, though I did not realize it going in. Since the draft I am loving the results he is putting up (though its only spring) and the reports coming from the sites / scouts. Even if he is no barnburner, Im confident I will get over 275 from him.

Harang is my "for now" guy. I am eventually going to seek other options, but I could be in worse shape there for now.

Fair projection. Ill admit this, I like my team a lot better than I did an hour after the draft. I think I came out of it pretty well.

[MSBNYY]

This prediction always assumes that everything breaks right. 2009 good performances are repeated, and 2009 injured players come back strong. If Brian McCann, Chone Figgins or Hanley Ramirez go down or don't produce the same, that will impact things because your backups are nowhere near as good. But likewise, you could lose Adam Jones without batting an eye because you have Gutierrez. Some of your backups are strong, some are weak, so you just need to pray your starters stay healthy.

[MSBNYY]

I had written a very long post about Jose's team, just like all the others, but for some reason, it either didn't post or got deleted. I'm thinking the latter. Anyway, that made me mad enough not to do previews for a few days. I'll get back to Jose later, but the short answer is that Jose has the worst bench in the history of this league, but if all goes well, his team is good.

Today though, I'll focus on Laura's team:

Starting with the hitting, it seems that Laura, like Jose, focused more on pitching and as a result, has a very weak bench.

So we have to focus on the lineup, and she needs to pray she doesn't get hit with the injury bug.

No one on her bench even played a full season last year. Two of her THREE bench players had 29 at bats between them. One of them, Jeff Clement, had ZERO at bats.

Carlos Quentin and Garrett Jones, in her lineup, also didn't have a full season's worth of at bats.

Quentin had a foot injury last year that hurt his production, but in 2008, he was a 500 point player. So let's assume he'll be healthy and give him 500 points.

Should be interesting to see Garrett Jones in a full season in the majors. That's also a risk for Laura because he simply hasn't had a full MLB season yet. Here's where having a solid bench is important--if he falters, Laura's best current option is Nolan Reimhold, another guy who didn't had a full season in 2009.

When I redo the Jose preview, it may be an interesting debate as to who drafted the worse bench. I may have to rethink my previous statement. Either way, both benches are putrid.

Giving Jones the benefit of the doubt, I'll give him 475 points.

That could be a low projection, but it could actually be a high one. Or it could be exactly right.

4450 Hitting Points.

On to the pitching.

As always, we're dealing with the best possible scenario for Laura. If that happens, Zack Greinke will produce exactly the same as in 2009. I don't think that will happen. No question he's an outstanding pitcher and barring an injury should put up great numbers, but his numbers were flat out off the charts last year, and that's tough to keep up for anyone. Still, for this preview, it's a carbon copy.

Laura spent her draft focusing on pitching, and her rotation as a result is above the norm in this league. But that said, I don't like her pitching bench that much either. Some good names are there, but based on 2009, not good numbers.

She should do well in IP. She has some arms that threw a lot of innings.

John Lackey is an interesting pick. He's kind of an example of a pitcher you want on a team in real life, but not much of a fantasy pitcher. Surprisingly, his fantasy numbers just aren't that good, and haven't been that good for the past 2 years. He's had a couple of injuries that have slowed him down. He hasn't won that many games and doesn't strike out that many batters.

He should get some more wins in Fenway, but playing in the AL East will likely affect his IP and ER allowed. Of course, he'll see Nick Swisher more, so that will help. He hasn't had a 300 point season in the last 2 years, but there's reason to believe that he can do so now.

In another divergence, here's a question--in real baseball, who would you rather have on the mound, John Lackey or Ted Lilly? I think most of us would rightly say Lackey. But not in fantasy baseball. Lilly has been significantly better than Lackey in each of the last 2 years. In fact, Lilly got 393 points in 2009 and 348 in 2009, which for a starter in this league, is pretty damn good. Playing in the NL central definitely helps a career.

2771 pitching points.

7221 total. In a perfect world.

The big caution is the top heavy starting pitching and the weak bench.

[$heriff Tom]

Um, why would you give GARRET JONES 475 hitting points?

[MSBNYY]

Stretching him out over a full season and assuming he has the starting job. I'm hardly up on the Pirates, but why would anyone draft someone and put them in their starting lineup--if they aren't a starter? Who would do that?

[MSBNYY]

Tough to redo a long preview once you've already typed it, posted it, and it somehow didn't take, but here's JOSE again.

Basically, the gist of Jose's team is as follows--he needs everyone to stay healthy, because his bench sucks. If everyone stays healthy and performs up to snuff, his team will do well, but in reality, that doesn't tend to happen.

The guy drafted 2 bench hitters--David Ortiz, and Ryan Theriot.

He has no back up at catcher, 2B, 3B, LF or RF. He does have two guys who can play LF and RF, but they're both in his lineup.

The only legit backups he has are at 1B and SS. Despite this--he has 5 people who can play 1B.

Four of them are in his lineup.

Soto had some injury issues last year, but was better the year before. He should be able to get to 400 points.

That leads to another problem with his team--not only is his team weak in the bench, he has several guys coming off injuries, like Reyes. For purposes of this preview, we have to assume the best of them, but brittle players do tend to be brittle.

I do think Reyes can give Jose 550 points though.

A healthy Aramis Rarmirez should be able to put out 500 points. He did 550 in 2008.

I don't think Swisher is going to do what he did last year, but for purposes of this preview, he will.

I do think Sizemore will do better. At least he should.

4693 hitting points--but that really requires a lot of good things to break his way.

Onto the pitching, Jose spent his draft clearly focusing on the mound.

He has 2 of the top pitchers in baseball, and fortunately for him, they have been consistent.

Sabathia and Lincecum, should put up consistent numbers for him, and it's not a stretch at all to see repeats of 2009. Hell, they were better in 2008.

Danks is a nice pitcher to have. He threw 200 innings, which is great in this league.

Dice K should rack up his share of wins, assuming last year is not a fluke and he can come back at the same level. No WBC this year helps. He'll need that. When healthy, Dice K can be a 400 point pitcher, but given that he hasn't shown 100 percent that he IS healthy, giving him 300 points is the best I'll go.

Despite drafting so many pitchers, Jeff Niemann is the best he could do for the number 5 spot. He had a solid fantasy year last year, and for Jose's sake, he'll need that again.

I like Erik Bedard when healthy on his team, but he hasn't been healthy for awhile. If he does get healthy, look for him to crack Jose's rotation relatively quickly.

He'll have to. Despite Jose's decision to have 7 pitchers on his bench, his pitching bench isn't that great. I won't go crazy as to reasoning, because he needs to make moves on his own, but if his starters fail, it's going to be a long year for Jose.

That said, 2705 pitching points can be had from his starters/bullpen.

That puts Jose at 7398 points, which seems like the best team out there. But that's shaky. As of NOW, even though the preseason look has Tom a little behind Jose, Tom has a much stronger bench and should finish ahead of Jose despite this preview. Same holds true for several others.

[grover]

By the time you're done with these projections the season will be on and no one will care.

[MSBNYY]

You're right. I'll do another one then.

NETTLES

Nettles drafted a nice lineup. No real need to do any estimating. His bench is only ok, nothing special, but his starters are good.

4589 hitting points.

The pitching though, isn't that great. He needs King Felix to have the same year or he's toast.

Beneath that, he has pitchers who are ok. The best of the rest is probably Porcello, but since he doesn't strike anyone out, he's more of a real world pitcher than a fantasy one.

David Price over a full season should net him 300 points minimum, maybe more.

His bullpen has 2 guys who combined for zero saves last year, but assuming they have the closer's job for the full year and keep it, they should be somewhat competitive with other pens.

2302 pitching points.

6891 total.

[IronHorse4]

The best of the rest is probably Porcello?

The lack of baseball knowledge continues to baffle me. It's like...I expect it, I'm ready for it, and yet...still shocked. Amazing.

[grover]

>The best of the rest is probably Porcello

[nobeernofun]

Looks like I'm not the only one who took last week OFF. Come on Ball's tell them how my team is going to get me Back in the Black this year.
Jose team looks like it's held together with Duck tape and smoke & mirrors. No back up for Mr. Met Jose or behind the pleat ? But year in & year out Jose finish's in the upper half & can open a bar with all the bottles he has collected over the years.
Way to mail in NETTLES team's preview, It was almost like you ....passed over it.

[MSBNYY]

Lemme guess--you're a fan of the great Ryan Dempster?

Time to move on to GROVER.

With 47 consecutive session losses, and several years studying baseball in Taiwan, Grover is looking to do SOMETHING this year.

He does have a team that is capable of doing some damage. His bench is much better than Jose's and Laura's. There are some people that are wait and see people, like Soriano. Can he come back? His stats have declined. The best he could do for Grover is the utility guy since Grover has Carl Crawford in left. Can Soriano outproduce Paul Konerko?

If so, Grover's bench is that much better.

I like that he has Ben Zobrist on his team. A player that produces over 550 points AND plays 4 positions is a great person to have on any team.

He's a little weak catching, but most people are.

Prince Fielder's production is very important obviously. 697 points is gigantic in this league, and he doesn't have anyone else capable of even approaching that.

4588 hitting points.

Grover's starting pitching is pretty good--if Johan Santana returns to form. Even without that, even if Santana produces like last year, it's still pretty good.

Giving Grover the benefit of the doubt, bumping Santana up to 400 points is reasonable. It may even be light.

Where Grover was smart is that everyone in his rotation EXCEPT Santana pitched 200 innings or more last year. I don't remember any other team I've looked at have that.

I'm going to bump Matt Garza up to 330 points. He was 8-12 last year, but his ERA was 3.94. Sounds like a hard luck pitcher.

Even if he went 10-10, he'd get another 34 points added to him.

I don't think Randy Wolf will do as well as last year. He's just not that great of a pitcher. But I won't downgrade the numbers for this preview.

Grover's pen is interesting. He has Brian Fuentes, who had 48 saves last year, but with a high enough ERA to go 1-5 and only get 300 points.

A 48 save closer should have way more points than that. Given that he had 272 points the year before, no bump up.

Leo Nunez isn't exactly the best closer either, so Grover's pen looks to be a bit below average. That said, if something on your team needs to be weak, the pen is the place.

2455 pitching points.

I don't think Grover necessarily has a winning team, but it should be in the top half, and if he manages his team well in season, he could compete for the money.

7043 total.

[grover]

I'll take that.

My team is built on the hope that the teams on the playoff bubble make more of a push.

I think if that happens ill be in good shape.

[MSBNYY]

I think a lot will depend on your in season managing. You drafted well enough to contend. You have a semblance of a bench, with some weaknesses. You didn't have the best draft, but you didn't have a bad one either.

[IronHorse4]

Lemme guess--you're a fan of the great Ryan Dempster?

Even by your primitive method of adding/subtracting a few points off last year's totals due to injury, Dempster AND Billingsley are better points-wise. By more complex methods, I still have Porcello as his 4th starter. Certainly could be wrong, but to not acknowledge Dempster or Billingsley is dumb.

[grover]

What did Balls predict last year and how did it go?

[9]

Mar 29, 2010 21:48:19 GMT -5 IronHorse4 said:

The best of the rest is probably Porcello?

The lack of baseball knowledge continues to baffle me. It's like...I expect it, I'm ready for it, and yet...still shocked. Amazing.

Billingsley pitches in the NL, so Balls doesn't know who he is. ;D

[grover]

>Read Balls' review of my team
>Only NL players mentioned are people who've been first rounders
>My face

[MSBNYY]

I understand that Dempster and Billingsley are both better points wise. But they are what they are which is not that good, and when talking about Porcello, I was talking about a REAL world pitcher, not fantasy points. This is evident by the fact that I mentioned that in the same sentence.

[MSBNYY]

Moving onto WALKMAN JOHN:

For me, the big curiosity is Rajai Davis over a full season. The guy had 41 steals last year and only 390 ABs. Add another 150 ABs, and that could be about 57 steals. That's a nice point getter. He's never done that before though. I see no reason he can't do 450 points.

When it comes to LF though, I don't know if John's choice of starters is the right Juan. Pierre was good several years back, but he hasn't produced over the last 2 years. But unlike Jose or Laura, John has this thing called a bench, and a healthy Marlyn Byrd can net John 450 at that position as well.

With Victor Martinez, John is strong where most in the league are weak--in the catching position.

That, and a very good infield makes up for the below average OF.

4620 hitting points.

John's starting pitching is 3 deep, which is good because some teams are more top heavy in this league. He has 3 200 inning pitchers, and two guys who almost got to the 200 inning threshold themselves.

Even his 4th best starter, De La Rosa, is above average. There are some people who don't have a #2 starter that good. Actually, call that a maybe, because I don't feel like checking.

Max Scherzer is one to watch. He will do better than last year if he puts up the same numbers as he did in Arizona, but virtue of simply being on a better team. But the problem is, he doesn't get to beat up on pitchers anymore, and he will be playing in the AL. Maybe he'll mature and pitch better. But a lot of pitchers see their stats fall when going to the AL from the NL, so it's hard to bump Scherzer up.

But that said, Jon also has Pineiro on his bench, so he should still be able to pull 325 in that 5th spot.

John's pitching weakness will be his pen. Nothing wrong with Beach Boy Brian Wilson, but I'm not sold on Mike Gonzalez. He's not having a great spring, and my sources are already talking about his job being shaky.

Halladay in Philly should be very interesting. He could exceed his 2009 totals.

So could Matt Cain, who only won 14 games despite a stellar ERA.

2690 pitching points.

So John does have one of the more balanced teams, with a solid bench, and a possible 7310 total points.

[MSBNYY]

Barring a change in circumstances, this will likely be my last preview before Opening Day. My duties as commissioner will not allow me to take the steps necessary to ensure that the last preview is written. There are quite a few people smart enough to understand what I'm saying. Those that aren't, will be let in on the secret after first pitch, though I still will not allow myself to say what I know on this message board.

Those who can guess can do so via email or text.

I've said enough. Time to discuss the team that belongs to POPS!!!!

Pops is a disgrace. He should not be allowed in the league this year. He finished in last place last year, and should have been relegated. In short, Pops sucks.

But Sheriff Tom granted Pops a stay of execution and because of that, there will no longer be relegation.

However, should Tom change his mind again and wish to reinstate relegation, it will be done and there's nothing you can do about it. HA HA!

Anyway, he did draft a team this year, and I don't think it's a last place team. Of course, he didn't draft a last place team last year either. He just drafted a few players that played in Flushing. I think he had both David Wright AND Jose Reyes, among others, and that killed him in this league.

Pops made some safe choices and some good ones. His hitting is solid, and barring injury of course, should put up decent numbers. He can't do worse than last year.

Kevin Youkilis is the starter on his team with the fewest at bats--491. Yet with that, he nearly got 550 points.

No real need to bump anyone up.

4645 hitting points.

Pops did his best to draft workhorse pitchers as well, and is only starting one pitcher who threw less than 200 innings in 2009. That pitcher, Scott Feldman, threw 189 innings and won 17 games. Even if Ben Sheets doesn't work out, Pops has Kevin Correia on his bench, who isn't the best pitcher in baseball, but isn't a bad 6th starter.

If KRod pitches like he should, he should do better than the 285 points. The Rays will in theory win enough games for Soriano to get more than last year's 27 saves.

Pops has a 600 point bullpen minimum.

Lost is that Pops is a good in season manager. I doubt even Larry could have done much to fix Pops' team last year.

Cliff Lee is one of Pops' top pitchers. It's funny that Javier Vazquez is Pops' ace. Normally I don't downgrade a player in the preview, but I also can't see Vazquez putting up his 2009 numbers in 2010. He's in the AL East, and until I see otherwise, he's a pussy.

But Lee should make up a good chunk of that difference, since he should do better than his 14-13 record.

Of course, Lee also doesn't have the NL to pad his stats either.

I think Vazquez will do 150 points less than last year, but Lee should do at least 50 points better, for a net 100 point loss. I like round numbers.

2425 pitching points.

7070.

Not a bad team.

[MSBNYY]

So Knoblauch finally put in a lineup and I can do the final preview.

Knoblauch has a bench, but it's not a great one. His hitting is good, led by ARod and Matt Holliday. I think ARod in a full season is going to nab 600 points, so he gets that bump. The only other bump will be Richie Weeks, to 400 points, because he is capable of that in a full season as shown in 2008.

Knoblauch is pretty weak in the SS position with Elvis Andrus, and OTHER than ARod and Holliday, he's pretty much average or below at every position.

4274 hitting points.

Knoblauch needs a 2009 repeat out of Verlander, which will be hard to get.

But again, for purposes of the preview, we'll assume that. He has 3 starters with over 200 innings, with Verlander throwing 240 innings. That's big. Historically, because Knoblauch picked him, I would expect Verlander to be on the DL by May, and he'll be lucky to throw 150 innings this year. But we'll see.

Knoblauch's bottom of the rotation is uninspired, but he does have JA Happ on the bench, who had a very good 2009 fantasy wise.

Andrew Bailey will get his share of bullpen points for Knoblauch, but his second closer is according to Yahoo, a lead candidate in a closer by committee situation. In the light most favorable to Knoblauch, he'll have the role the entire season.

2586 pitching points.

However, Knoblauch, depending on the year, tends to not pay attention. For that reason, just like I added points to Larry, I'm subtracting 50 points from Knoblauch because he's Knoblauch.

6810 points.

Not a good team compared to the rest of you folks.

[MSBNYY]

Preseason predictions:

Jose--7398
John--7310
Tom--7301
Laura--7221
Justin--7079
Grover--7043
Pops--7070
Nettles--6891
Milton--6850
Knoblauch--6810
Larry--6794
Evan--6613