THE STRASBURG EFFECT

[IronHorse4]

So Strasburg was filthy today. Milton basking in the afterglow.

Here's the thing. Strasburg is on tap for roughly 95 innings this season, according to Nats sources. Can figure that a couple of ways. One way is to break it down by number of starts. If he averages 7 IP/start, that's 13 or so starts. 34 points today for Strasburg. Multiply that by 13, that's 442.

But he won't win every start.

Here are the approximate point totals for the last two phenoms that could show what we're in for this season stuff-wise, using our current scoring system:

2003 Mark Prior 570
1998 Kerry Wood 422

This was the first full season for both. Bear in mind that Prior pitched some in 2002, so he had time to learn some.

The kicker, though, is that Prior pitched 211 innings in 2003, more than double the workload Strasburg is expected to be allowed. Kerry Wood pitched 166 innings in our example, over 40% more of the expected workload of Strasburg.

Nothing exact here, but comparing him to Prior's first full season, if Strasburg is expected to work about 45% of that, he's looking at roughly 256 points.

Compare to Wood's first season, pro-rating Strasburg's projected total (57%) would shake out to around 240 points.

So the projections come out pretty much the same.

Now, Strasburg has the luxury of pitching in an environment where steroid, HGH, and amphetamine use are nowhere near as rampant, so we're seeing the pitchers start to take things back some. But how much more is that worth? Not sure right now, but here are a couple of numbers:

1998 Roger Clemens 737
2003 Roy Halladay 633
2008 CC Sabathia 642
2009 Zach Grienke 603

Clemens had no problem, though he was probably on an even playing field with the roid boys, so maybe throw him out. But these numbers are probably the highest point totals by a SP in their respective years. Doesn't seem like much of a variance. In fact, Clemens was even better in 1998 than the top guys the last 2 years.

Basically, I think we're looking at 250 points for Strasburg this year. MAYBE 300. Worth a 12th-round pick? Well, if he gets to that 300 points, it barely is. Better question is was it worth being Milton's 3rd SP picked. That 300 points last year would have put him somewhere in the 35-40 range in the ranks of SPs last year. All things being equal, that makes him, on average, a low 3rd or high 4th starter.

Basically, it's not a huge shot to turn out to be worth it in the long run.

However, the real money will likely be made in sessions. If Milton gets a session out of it, it's worth it. Two? More worth it.

Stay tuned.

[MSBNYY]

What happens if he takes a liner off the face and is never the same again?

[IronHorse4]

What I did fail to calculate was what Strasburg's replacement did/will do. Cecil has about 150 so far, but Milton didn't have hin there the whole time. The value lies in what he truly gets out of that rotation spot. If he gets 150 from that spot aside from Strasburg, then that 300 becomes, in effect, 450. Then it really is worth it. I think Strasburg does more like 250, and his replacement does maybe 125 which puts the spot at 375. In that case, the Strasburg pick was worthwhile after all.

[MSBNYY]

It's probably a pitch limit rather than an inning limit.

Let's say he has 100 innings. He used 7 last night.

93 innings left. The DBacks have 103 games left. That's about 20 starts for a guy run out there every 5 days.

Are they going to limit him to 4 2/3 inning per start to save him? Or will they pitch him normally and shut him down?

IP is 2 points, and that's going to be below average from here on out--if they follow their limit.

Also, if he gets close to his limit, would they move him to the pen?

If so, unless he becomes the closer, he becomes useless to Milton.

[IronHorse4]

No, it's not a pitch limit. It's an innings limit. They have said all along they want him going no more than 160 IP this year. Around 65 in the minors means around 95 in the majors, like I said.

And who cares how many games the DBacks have left? I know you don't follow baseball outside the New York American League entry, but it's the Nationals that own Strasburg.

They are going to pitch him normally and shut him down when he is done. Riggleman learned from the Wood debacle that he'll have to limit his pitch count, but probably around 80-90 per start on average, which will not hurt him. Not like it will be 70. If yesterday was, say, his second start, I think he would have sat after the 84 pitches through 6. But a sense of history took over, and I don't think it was a bad thing, as long as they do the right thing moving forward.

If he gets close to his limit, they will start him until he reaches his limit, and then they will shut him down. They likely learned from the abortion that was the Joba Chamberlain debacle.

Essentially, Milton will get three really good months out of Strasburg, barring injury.

[MSBNYY]

Let's just take an impossible extreme and say he is super efficient, and throws 10 pitches an inning for 6 innings. Do they take him out?

As for how many games a team has left, let's see if you can get the math. If you have 100 games left, and are in a rotation of 5, you have approximately 20 starts. If you want to stick to that 90 or so innings left, then you either have to severely limit his starts, stick him in the pen to keep him the whole year, or shut him down.

That has nothing to do with who owns the guy or baseball outside of NY. It's simple math, and fewer innings means fewer points.