Post by MSBNYY on Sept 29, 2010 12:01:04 GMT -5
So thoughts on who should get the award?
Contenders in my opinion are CC, Price, Felix Hernandez, Jared Weaver, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz.
Stats:
CC--21-7, 237.2 IP, 3.18 ERA, 195K
Price--19-6, 207.2 IP 2.73ERA, 187K
Lester--19-8, 204 IP, 2.96ERA, 220K
Buchholz--17-7, 173.2 IP, 2.33ERA, 120K
Hernandez--13-12, 249.2IP, 2.27ERA, 232K
Jared Weaver--13-12, 217.1IP 3.02 ERA, 229K
I think immediately, you have to knock out Jared Weaver and Clay Buchholz.
Weaver has the IP, is second in the league in Ks, but if you look at that 13-12 record, he's done. Not so much because of the record, but his numbers are similar to King Felix, but Hernandez' ERA is 0.70 LOWER.
There is no objective way you can pick Weaver over Hernandez--especially when King Felix has an extra 30 plus IP.
You can eliminate Buchholz next. His ERA is phenomenal, and his record is good. But the IP is significantly lower than the other contenders, some of whom have matched the ERA, and others have him beat in other categories.
I'm not a strikeout fan. An out is an out. For me, IP and ERA speak very loudly in deciding the Cy Young.
That leaves CC, Price, Lester, and Felix as the top 4.
CC's ERA is stellar, but he's in dead last of those 4. The IP is great, but the bottom line is that the other 3 pitchers have been a notch better.
Wins are the least important stat for a pitcher--at least for me. They are too dependent on run support. There is no way Felix Hernandez should be 13-12 with the way he's pitched. On a team like the Yankees, or any team with a comparable offense, the guy should not just have won 20 games, but maybe even 25. It was a sick year.
Wins are the biggest reason CC is a contender, but 2 wins over an entire season compared to guys like Lester and Price really aren't enough to give him the award.
That knocks it down to Lester, Price and Hernandez.
I think at this point, Lester gets dumped. He has more Ks than Price, but Price has him slightly beaten in IP and ERA. Plus, Price's performance against the Yankees under that kind of pressure should be noted. Yes, Lester did almost as well, but the pressure was different because realistically, Boston had no shot.
And now it comes down to Felix Hernandez v. David Price.
It all depends on whether the voters can recognize that the best pitcher in baseball has a shitty record because of factors that aren't in his control.
Tom has pointed out that there were a ton of games where Hernandez didn't win, where he gave up 1 run or less. He apparently had the worst run support in the league.
2.33 ERA over 240 plus innings is sick.
Great as Price's year has been, would you pick Price or Hernandez if you wanted someone starting Game 7 of the World Series?
Keep in mind that to get there, you would HAVE a decent offense.
The only stat Price really has Hernandez beaten is the record.
Price has had a Cy Young caliber year, but I would throw the record out the window and vote for Felix Hernandez if I had the vote.
Contenders in my opinion are CC, Price, Felix Hernandez, Jared Weaver, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz.
Stats:
CC--21-7, 237.2 IP, 3.18 ERA, 195K
Price--19-6, 207.2 IP 2.73ERA, 187K
Lester--19-8, 204 IP, 2.96ERA, 220K
Buchholz--17-7, 173.2 IP, 2.33ERA, 120K
Hernandez--13-12, 249.2IP, 2.27ERA, 232K
Jared Weaver--13-12, 217.1IP 3.02 ERA, 229K
I think immediately, you have to knock out Jared Weaver and Clay Buchholz.
Weaver has the IP, is second in the league in Ks, but if you look at that 13-12 record, he's done. Not so much because of the record, but his numbers are similar to King Felix, but Hernandez' ERA is 0.70 LOWER.
There is no objective way you can pick Weaver over Hernandez--especially when King Felix has an extra 30 plus IP.
You can eliminate Buchholz next. His ERA is phenomenal, and his record is good. But the IP is significantly lower than the other contenders, some of whom have matched the ERA, and others have him beat in other categories.
I'm not a strikeout fan. An out is an out. For me, IP and ERA speak very loudly in deciding the Cy Young.
That leaves CC, Price, Lester, and Felix as the top 4.
CC's ERA is stellar, but he's in dead last of those 4. The IP is great, but the bottom line is that the other 3 pitchers have been a notch better.
Wins are the least important stat for a pitcher--at least for me. They are too dependent on run support. There is no way Felix Hernandez should be 13-12 with the way he's pitched. On a team like the Yankees, or any team with a comparable offense, the guy should not just have won 20 games, but maybe even 25. It was a sick year.
Wins are the biggest reason CC is a contender, but 2 wins over an entire season compared to guys like Lester and Price really aren't enough to give him the award.
That knocks it down to Lester, Price and Hernandez.
I think at this point, Lester gets dumped. He has more Ks than Price, but Price has him slightly beaten in IP and ERA. Plus, Price's performance against the Yankees under that kind of pressure should be noted. Yes, Lester did almost as well, but the pressure was different because realistically, Boston had no shot.
And now it comes down to Felix Hernandez v. David Price.
It all depends on whether the voters can recognize that the best pitcher in baseball has a shitty record because of factors that aren't in his control.
Tom has pointed out that there were a ton of games where Hernandez didn't win, where he gave up 1 run or less. He apparently had the worst run support in the league.
2.33 ERA over 240 plus innings is sick.
Great as Price's year has been, would you pick Price or Hernandez if you wanted someone starting Game 7 of the World Series?
Keep in mind that to get there, you would HAVE a decent offense.
The only stat Price really has Hernandez beaten is the record.
Price has had a Cy Young caliber year, but I would throw the record out the window and vote for Felix Hernandez if I had the vote.
