2011 Previews

[MSBNYY]

I'm going to start it off with Larry.

As always, I try to look at this in the light most favorable to the manager. It's not the most accurate method, but sometimes I nail it. Most important, it annoys Tom, so it's worth doing for that reason alone.

It seems that almost every year, I feel that Larry has a bad draft. This year is no exception.

I'm looking at his players, and Larry seemed to draft a lot of people with stellar 2009s, but lesser 2010s. His lineup is solid, and he is strong at traditionally weak positions like 2B and C, but some of his guys had down years. If they rebound and have up years, he's going to do much better than the projections.

Look at Mauer for example. In 2009, he scored 567 points, but in 2010, 446. I'll give him 500. Prince Fielder dropped from 697 points to 553. Let's push him to 600 just because he's capable of it.

Is Cano going to put up 588 points again? I really don't think so, but for this purpose, he'll repeat.

When healthy, ARod could still put up 600. Problem is, he hasn't been healthy for 2 straight years, and we have to figure on an injury. He's been consistent the last 2 years, so 520 points isn't terrible.

Steven Drew had good year and he is what he is, so I'll keep the 473.

Jose Tabata is going to be important to Larry's team. He only put up 310 points in 2010. 405 ABs. Since I care about the Pirates about as much as I care about the homeless, I'm just going to guess that Larry read some good things on Tabata. But I'm going to be conservative, and bump him to 375 points. Victorino and Pence I'll keep at 514 and 524, and though I think that fat fuck Ortiz is finally going to decline, he's in a very good lineup, and should keep his 531.

That would bring Larry to 4625 hitting points.

On to the pitching...

I've never been a fan of Chris Carpenter. But if healthy, in that weak division and league, he'll do what he's done since he left the AL. He does have 3 400 point starters, and his 2 weaker starters posted 194 innings and 195 innings. He also has a 200 IP starter on his bench. That can't hurt.

His bullpen is KRod and Chapman. Is Chapman even the Reds closer?

Larry's bullpen has no bench players, so this is it. If Larry is getting a closer, he needs to trade for one. That said, Larry is the best in season manager in the league, so I can't imagine him not getting 500 points out of his pen minimum. He'll either grab a new closer off the wire or trade for one. Either way, you can include that in a "150 point bonus for being Larry" factor.

Larry has 2323 pitching points coming to him as of now.

That's 6948 points.

[nobeernofun]

"Look at Mauer for example. In 2009, he scored 567 points, but in 2010, 446."
Mauer had an off year in 2010. Because He was on the Solons in 2010 !!!!

[MSBNYY]

Moving on to Sheriff Tom's team. He is the ultimate bridesmaid in this league, having never finished in first despite being a 10 year vet. 10 years!

Tom's team is weak in the catching position, which isn't surprising since he waited awhile to grab a catcher. Lidge hasn't been great, but as a closer, he always has the potential for 300 points.

Adam Lind had a down 2010 but a much higher 2009. I'm going to bump him up to 500, but I'm sure Tom's hoping for even more. If Lind returns to his 2009 form completely, that's a very good pick. If he remains at 2010 numbers, it's not that great of a pick at 1B.

Tom actually drafted some consistent players, which means that Lind is the only one I'm going to bump up. Reyes is in a contract year, and if he does better than 2010, that's a great pick.

Tom's weak at the utility position, but if Morneau comes back strong, he can move Lind there and give it a boost.

4166 hitting points.

Turning to pitching, Tom has the best pitcher in the game in Halladay. Normally I wouldn't recommend picking a pitcher that high but Halladay's 2010 numbers warranted the pick. When a pitcher produces as many points as one of the top HITTERS in THIS league, grab him fast.

Halladay has been consistent too, with high innings counts. The big fear is that now that he's in his 30s, the innings from past seasons may catch up for him, and he's due for an injury. This happened to Tom last time he picked a consistently high scoring pitcher in the early first round (Randy Johnson). But if Halladay stays healthy, he will likely outproduce even other aces by a good 100 points. That's going to help his staff tremendously.

Tom has 3 solid starters who produced 220 IP or more in 2010. Josh Johnson is capable of doing more in 2011 than in 2010 as well.

The weakness in the staff is the pen, but that's not terrible.

Conservatively, I give Tom 2739 points from pitching.

6905 total.

That's a potential good season.

[IronHorse4]

As it stands right now, Tom has the best starting 4 SPs collectively. If Cueto isn't hurt too bad, and he gets better, Tom's pitching will have him in the top 3.

[MSBNYY]

Moving on to Grover--

In case people forgot, he's the defending champ. Grover became the first person in league history to win the league without winning a single session.

Grover decided to push pitching this year, and as a result, he's probably going to end up weaker than most teams in hitting. Catching and shortstop stand out as weaknesses, with John Buck and Cliff Pennington leading the way. Buck only had 329 points last year, and Pennington had 393. Maybe Grover's research indicates one or both will have better years.

Votto is Grover's superstar hitter, but I don't believe he will do as well as last year. He's good--a 500 point player, but last year he had 650 points. That's a significant increase, and beware of players with career years. But for Grover's sake, hopefully he will have a better season.

Votto is the only hitter in Grover's lineup to top 500 points last year.

David Price leads Grover's staff, and he has to spend yet another year in the AL East, but this time with a depleted Rays lineup supporting him. Even if he manages to pitch as well, will the wins come? But for this purpose, we have to assume yes they will.

The starting staff is solid, though the IP wasn't there last year. Only 2 people on Grover's staff had 200 IP or more last season.

But all 5 were pretty close to that.

Grover's bullpen is going to be weak, with Axford and Kimbrel. Rookie closers are risky, especially with Kimbrel having a rough spring. Yet, even so, 600 points out of the pen is pretty much something I'd expect from anyone.

4261 hitting points, 2546 pitching points, 6807 total.

Not as good a draft as last year for the defending champ, but he managed his team well in season last year, so we'll see what he can do.

[MSBNYY]

Milton--

What can you say about Milton's team? Well, he has a decent bench, better than most. Unfortunately, his bench covers his strongest starters, and he didn't draft a backup 2B. Milton took a lot of risks, and picked a lot of sleepers. He has a lot of questions.

Konerko had a great 2010, but I don't believe he repeats it. For Cantu, I bumped him up to 400 based on 2010 and 2009 combined. One has to think that even now, Manny will steroid his way to 350 points. If somehow Manny hits like he used to though, that will be a major bump for Milton. But that's an if. Of course, Milton will not keep Manny in if he doesn't produce, so I'll actually use 400 points for that spot.

Chase Utley had a down year, and I'm not bumping him up because of his current injury.

Milton has a lot of people on his team coming off down years. If they rebound, then he's in decent shape, but again, another if.

The pitching isn't that much better, also flooded with ifs. Jimenez is his best pitcher, but will he be able to repeat that 2010 performance in Colorado. For this preview, yes, but in reality?

Milton has 3 starters in his rotation who pitched a combined 381 innings. That's an average of 127 innings per starter, which is awful. Will all 3 of them get to 200 innings? Doubtful.

That said, I'm giving Peavy and Beckett the benefit of the doubt, and 300 and 350 points respectively. These are not unrealistic projections for pitchers of their caliber. Mike Pelfrey can get to 300 points, so a healthy Jake Peavy should have no problem reaching that goal.

Milton has a stronger bullpen than most, and has a spare closer, so that's good.

4021 hitting points, 2601 pitching points, 6622 total.

[MSBNYY]

JOSE--

The biggest problem with Jose's team is that he didn't bother drafting a bench for his hitting. He only has ONE player on the bench--Jesus Montero. That's really bad. Oh well, at least he was wise enough to draft a guy who may not play all season and a guy that retired.

I expect him to dump quite a few pitchers at some point just to get some depth.

His hitting is solid though, and the only adjustment I'll make is to Pedroia, who should be capable of putting up 500 points. I don't expect a second 300 AB season from him.

Other than that, Jose has mostly 500 plus guys except for catcher, but a lot of teams are in that situation.

Jose has some solid pitching, together with a bunch of 200 inning pitchers, that should help him a lot. Makes sense since he drafted so many pitchers.

He doesn't have a Halladay or a Lee or a Sabathia, but his pitching should be fine if they stay healthy. Not going to bump him up, but I think Hamels will score more points than last year. That said, he has a fairly weak pen.

4587 hitting points, 2186 pitching. 100 points subtracted due to expected poor management.
6673 total.

[MSBNYY]

On to John--

John's stronger than most at catcher with Brian McCann, but weaker than most at 1B with Carlos Pena, at least based on last season's numbers. He's also weak at SS.

He has some guys like Beltre, who I don't think will repeat 2010, but Ellsbury in a full season is capable of 500 points.

John drafted a decent bench in both the pitching and hitting areas.

He has 3 200 inning starters, and his worst starter, Nolasco, put up 300 points in 150 innings. Over a full season, he could do better.

I can't really bump up his pen, which is a little weak. These guys both had full seasons as closers, and saved what they saved. It could get better, but I don't see it getting worse unless they lose jobs.

4372 hitting points. 2428 pitching points.

6800 total.

[MSBNYY]

Looking at Nettles, he seems to be suffering from a similar fate as others in this league--weak pen. But his starting pitching is solid, led by King Felix and Jered Weaver. Felix got 517 points last year, but did so with no run support. He would have matched Halladay's numbers if his team scored enough to get him the wins. Even with a bad team, he was a hard luck pitcher. The law of averages should net him 600 points if he pitches like last year, though that's not a guarantee. I'm not bumping him up, but he's a big key to Nettles' chances.

I will bump up Jimmy Rollins though to 500 points. Healthy, he should get there. Nettles drafted a pretty solid lineup. No real risks, just solid guys, led by Miguel Cabrera.

Nettles' bottom of the rotation isn't too strong, but it isn't horrific either. He's starting with the Hellickson, but he has Dallas Braden on the bench so he should get 300 points out of that spot.

Bottom line--4508 hitting points. 2334 pitching points. 6842 total.

[MSBNYY]

Moving on to Laura. You know how I added 150 points to Larry because he is a good in season manager? I'm subtracting 100 points from Laura because she just isn't that good. If not for Pops, Laura would have been in last place more than once.

Laura made history in a prior draft by choosing Brad Lidge with the 6th overall pick a few years back. She made a pick this year equally legendary by choosing Adam Wainwright in the second round. Wainwright made news the week before the draft by having season ending Tommy John surgery. I will say that until the day of the draft, I didn't know about this injury either. However, I was out of the country when this news went down, had not followed baseball at all the week before the draft, and wasn't preparing for a draft.

Worse yet, Laura did not draft a left fielder. 25 rounds--no left fielder. It's not a case of not having a backup when the main left fielder gets hurt after the draft. Something similar happened to Milton, and that's bad. But to not draft a left fielder at all? How does that happen?

I will say this--if Laura manages to finish in the money this year, it will be a hell of a recovery.

And whoever finishes behind her in the standing is deserving of a lot of ridicule.

Laura's also very weak in the catching department, getting a guy who averaged about 225 points over the last 2 seasons. I would bump that to 300, but I don't think it's happening.

Laura has some good hitters. That Pujols guy is pretty solid. She also took a chance on Jose Bautista, who was one of the top fantasy hitters last year. For this prediction, I'm keeping the 690, but reality should strike for Bautista, and can't expect those numbers again. It would be a big surprise.

I'm pretty sure she will get a leftfielder in the second week, but the pickings are slim, so I'm only going to give 375 points to that slot.

Her SS is Starlin Castro. Nuff said.

Did Laura realize that pitching is important too?

Her ace is Carl Pavano. She has 2 people on her roster that through 200 innings last season. Pavano and her crush, Ted Lilly.

3 pitchers in her rotation threw 111 innings or less.

You kind of need your pitchers to pitch.

I will say this though, where most of the league has a crappy pen, Laura has one of the better ones. However there's a problem. Normally I would not do someone's job for them and let them know news about their players, but I know how Tom feels about this issue, and Laura would be in danger of inadvertently cheating if this happens. Feliz is likely rotation bound. If that happens, that great pen takes a big hit.

For this purpose, I'll assume it won't happen. I bumped up her pitching to account for a decent starting bench, and the idea that some of those low inning starters may pitch a full season.

4056 hitting points. 2373 pitching.

6429 total, and I think that's generous.

[MSBNYY]

Not sure why I keep doing these previews, since the lack of comments indicates either no one is reading them, or no one gives a shit, but screw it. Here's Justin.

For a guy who didn't draft a catcher until the last rounds, he did pretty well, getting Carlos Ruiz. He's not the best, but 300 points that late isn't horrible, and comparable to some others in the league.

JJ Hardy is the SS, and he's a weak spot. Over 2 years, he averages less than 300 points per season. I'm not going to research to find out if this is because he's been hurt or sucks, but it's still not that good.

Will Jason Bay rebound from his injury prone/horrid season. I have to assume yes, and conservatively bump him to 450, though it's not impossible he'll do better. Justin's depth on the bench will enable him to counter some of his risks.

On the pitching side, Justin drafted Jon Lester, the clubhouse cancer, to be his ace. He's young, healthy, and on a team primed to give him a great season.

Behind Lester is Rricky Rromerro and Ryan Dempster. Neither are Cy Young candidates, but both had solid seasons last year. AJ Burnett is a risk, but just as Yankee fan alone, I'm going to pray he rebounds and am bumping him to 250.

I also don't think Justin will have a problem getting 250 points in some capacity out of the Zimmerman slot.

Meanwhile, his bullpen should net him a solid 600 points, if Marmol stays healthy. Factoring in brain power, I'll add 100 points as well.

4151 hitting points, 2345 pitching points. 100 Justin points. 6596 total.

[Bad Mouth Larry]

i had such a shitty draft huh balls? but your lil prediction calculator still cant find a team that will score more points then me? shitty draft. lol

[MSBNYY]

Go figure. The others did worse. But don't forget, I add points to your total because you are good DURING the season. I bet we could do an 11 team draft, give you 25 picks on the waiver wire, and you'd still not finish last.

[MSBNYY]

Moving on to Pops. Pops has been a hard luck player in this league. But hey, it's been happening for too long for this to be a coincidence.

Pops has been killed by injuries. So why is it that 3 of his pitchers had 157 innings or less, and that 157 workhorse is Javy Vazquez?

One of his closers? Joe Nathan.

His superstar 1B? Kendrys Morales.

His team, because of these injuries, is a little tougher to predict, and requires a lot breaking his way for this prediction to come close. Even if these bump ups all happen, because of Pops' recent history, I'm subtracting 100 points from his total score.

He does have decent hitting. Carl Crawford and Josh Hamilton will be keys to his season, aside from all the people that need to step up their games and stay healthy. Good 1-2 punch with Lincecum and Oswalt, but he may have to trade one of those guys to fill multiple gaps when the rest of his team starts to fail.

4488 hitting points, 2271 pitching points, -100 Pops points, 6659 Total.

[nobeernofun]

"His superstar 1B? Kendrys Morales" Damn, I did not see that happing. I heard he was going to be O.K. to start the Year. Well that's what happens when you hold your draft the First week of Spring training games. Hey at lest Kendry was not one of my First 3 picks this year. But who would know as we don't have a Draft list this year. Joe Nathan looks O.K. too so far. I'll be starting Scott Baker over Javy Vazquez at lest to start the year. SOOOOO Let The Games begin already !!!

[MSBNYY]

Knoblauch finally put in a lineup, so let's take a look at his team.

I guess it's safe to say that the league did a good job splitting up the closers this year. No one is too strong in the pen. But Heath Bell, if he repeats, will give Knoblauch a nice advantage there.

Brian Roberts, when healthy, is capable of 550 points, like he got in 2009. But I'm not going to bump him that high. Just to 400. Knoblauch is weak at C and SS. Strong in LF. He does have one of the weaker hitting teams in the league, at least based on his starting lineup.

His starting pitching is solid, led by CC. He'll need a strong year from Liriano to contend. But if his starting pitching does what it did last year, he'll be fine.

3920 hitting points. 2639 pitching points. 6559 total.

[MSBNYY]

Finally--EVAN!

Evan drafted some solid hitters and some decent pitching. I bumped up a few people who will be healthy this year like Ian Kinsler, and I think Evan will find a way to get 300 points out of the catching position.

Evan has some good starters as well, Verlander and Santana threw over 220 IP last year, which is good if the wins come again. His lowest IP total from a starter is 185, which is better than a lot in this league. He also drafted a slightly better bullpen than most, assuming JJ Putz puts in a full season as a closer and gets him 300 points.

Evan actually has one of the better teams in the league. If things break his way, he could finish in the money. In fact, he has the highest projection in the league.

4402 hitting points, 2613 pitching points. 7015 total.

That about does it for the 2011 projections. Play ball!

[MSBNYY]

Projected standings totals:

Evan--7015
Larry--6948
Tom--6905
Nettles--6842
Grover--6807
John--6800
Jose--6673
Pops--6659
Milton--6622
Justin--6596
Knoblauch--6559
Laura--6429

[IronHorse4]

Looks like I'm in for a bad year. Can't argue math.

I mean, Balls completely overlooked that I have Zach Grienke on the bench that is going to miss like 3 starts, and Jordan Zimmerman will be at least 100 points better than he thinks, but I think I'm in trouble anyway.

[MSBNYY]

Time will tell. No preview is going to take into account roster moves and use of the bench, at least not in a major way. Keep in mind with Greinke though that he'll have to pitch better than last year just to equal last year's totals, if only because he IS missing those 3 starts. I guess we'll see. At least we killed two weeks after the draft with some fantasy stuff.

[Bad Mouth Larry]

he says i had a shit draft. yet he picks me for 2nd. sure cant argue math justin!!!

[MSBNYY]

I guess the numbers played out differently than my first thought coming out of the draft. Again, I did give you points because of your past history, and the ability to trade, but no question, the math indicated your draft was better than I thought.

[yanks7697]

Well, I don't know about you guys but I think balls' numbers are too low.
I hope he is right on the money with your teams totals, but my team is going to get me 7,467 points. Marc you are off by 794 points.

[9]

If I finish fourth for the third consecutive season, I may kill someone.

[MSBNYY]

Keep in mind these predictions were made BEFORE Milton's entire team committed suicide.

[Bad Mouth Larry]

Mar 28, 2011 7:23:23 GMT -5 MSBNYY said:

Projected standings totals:

Evan--7015
Larry--6948
Tom--6905
Nettles--6842
Grover--6807
John--6800
Jose--6673
Pops--6659
Milton--6622
Justin--6596
Knoblauch--6559
Laura--6429

u got me in 2nd place. correct! but 6940. off by 8 points. wow.

[IronHorse4]

And you want manager of the year? You finished exactly where you were supposed to finish! How about me? I rocked it!

Scary projections, though.

[MSBNYY]

Final standings for comparison
1 Forest Hills Yankees 7221
2 smash-fuckin-mouth 6941
3 The Swingin' Dicks 6936.33
4 High Hard Ones 6799.67
5 Hoboken Nine 6722.67
6 The Bureau 6648.67
7 just too easy 6608
8 Move over ladies. 6578.67
9 Solons 6444
10 I won last year LOL! 6420
11 NJ Barflies of LI 6362.33
12 Mo Luck Please! 5759