Post by MSBNYY on Mar 26, 2012 8:57:05 GMT -5
I'm starting the previews doing what I normally do, which is to take last year's numbers, with a few guesses here and there to try to get an accurate picture of what someone will do this season.
As I finish a team, I'll post my findings.
I'm a little worried this year because I started with Jose, and I found his numbers to be very high--a lot higher than I expected. I even downgraded some players and found that WITH the downgrade, Jose is still doing awesome. I'm not comparing other teams yet.
Jose had an unusual strategy. He drafted his pitching staff with his first 7 picks. As a result, his pitching should be the best in the league by far. Did this strategy work?
You would think his hitting would be shit.
He doesn't have a Pujols or a Cabrera. But his hitting isn't horrific. As he pointed out, he had several 500 point players on his roster.
I am making certain assumptions--including factoring in Jose's bench should he decide to make a move.
But in general, I use last year's numbers. Where I have to guess is with Jesus Montero, and Shin Soo Choo. Those are spots with unusually low 2011 totals, due to injury/being a rookie. But, Jose does have a 500 point players on the bench, and someone in the high 400s.
With that in mind, I gave Jose 950 points in the two slots above. This assumes Jose is not stupid.
Jose gets 4019 hitting points. He has no superstars, but there is consistency. And, for reasons I can't explain because it may give Jose an idea, that number might actually be low if certain things break Jose's way.
Now on to pitching.
The man has Verlander and Halladay. Obviously, no one is going to touch that 1-2 punch should they be healthy.
But pitching is so much harder to predict than hitting. Verlander had a 300 point swing from 2010 to 2011. That's enormous.
I dropped about 150 points from Verlander this year. Do I think he can have a similar year to 2011? Possible, but that may very well be a career year. Even as a number one pitcher, he can be one of the top players in the game, and still not even come close to last year's totals. Plus, didn't he throw 2 no hitters last year? That's 50 points right there. I'm giving Verlander 625 points, and if he gets that for Jose, he was worth taking where he was taken.
That would make Verlander one of the best pitchers in the game, but still factoring in a slightly worse year, with no no hitters.
It would also match Roy Halladay, who had a great year last year, and also got 625. Halladay is more consistent than Verlander, and in the light most favorable to Jose, he won't choose 2012 to hit his decline.
James Shields also had a great year, and he is also inconsistent annually. So which Shields will show up? I knocked down Shields 125 points to 475.
In the Stephen Strasburg slot, if he's on, he'll be a major pickup. If not, I think Jose can get 375 points out of that slot.
CJ Wilson was given 425. He had back to back good years, and if he picks up the wins in Anaheim, he should be consistent.
As for the closers, I rated them as consistent with last year, and am assuming no drop off and injuries.
I gave him 3395 pitching points, and that may actually be low, given that I don't think some of these great pitchers will do quite as well.
With that, Jose comes in at an impressive 7414 points.
The one issue is because pitchers are so hard to predict and are injury prone, it's possible he will be the least accurate prediction. Should be interesting.
As I finish a team, I'll post my findings.
I'm a little worried this year because I started with Jose, and I found his numbers to be very high--a lot higher than I expected. I even downgraded some players and found that WITH the downgrade, Jose is still doing awesome. I'm not comparing other teams yet.
Jose had an unusual strategy. He drafted his pitching staff with his first 7 picks. As a result, his pitching should be the best in the league by far. Did this strategy work?
You would think his hitting would be shit.
He doesn't have a Pujols or a Cabrera. But his hitting isn't horrific. As he pointed out, he had several 500 point players on his roster.
I am making certain assumptions--including factoring in Jose's bench should he decide to make a move.
But in general, I use last year's numbers. Where I have to guess is with Jesus Montero, and Shin Soo Choo. Those are spots with unusually low 2011 totals, due to injury/being a rookie. But, Jose does have a 500 point players on the bench, and someone in the high 400s.
With that in mind, I gave Jose 950 points in the two slots above. This assumes Jose is not stupid.
Jose gets 4019 hitting points. He has no superstars, but there is consistency. And, for reasons I can't explain because it may give Jose an idea, that number might actually be low if certain things break Jose's way.
Now on to pitching.
The man has Verlander and Halladay. Obviously, no one is going to touch that 1-2 punch should they be healthy.
But pitching is so much harder to predict than hitting. Verlander had a 300 point swing from 2010 to 2011. That's enormous.
I dropped about 150 points from Verlander this year. Do I think he can have a similar year to 2011? Possible, but that may very well be a career year. Even as a number one pitcher, he can be one of the top players in the game, and still not even come close to last year's totals. Plus, didn't he throw 2 no hitters last year? That's 50 points right there. I'm giving Verlander 625 points, and if he gets that for Jose, he was worth taking where he was taken.
That would make Verlander one of the best pitchers in the game, but still factoring in a slightly worse year, with no no hitters.
It would also match Roy Halladay, who had a great year last year, and also got 625. Halladay is more consistent than Verlander, and in the light most favorable to Jose, he won't choose 2012 to hit his decline.
James Shields also had a great year, and he is also inconsistent annually. So which Shields will show up? I knocked down Shields 125 points to 475.
In the Stephen Strasburg slot, if he's on, he'll be a major pickup. If not, I think Jose can get 375 points out of that slot.
CJ Wilson was given 425. He had back to back good years, and if he picks up the wins in Anaheim, he should be consistent.
As for the closers, I rated them as consistent with last year, and am assuming no drop off and injuries.
I gave him 3395 pitching points, and that may actually be low, given that I don't think some of these great pitchers will do quite as well.
With that, Jose comes in at an impressive 7414 points.
The one issue is because pitchers are so hard to predict and are injury prone, it's possible he will be the least accurate prediction. Should be interesting.
