MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Oct 24, 2006 6:07:21 GMT -5
$45 million that could be spent elsewhere. If you have $45 million to spend--you'll spend it on improving your team, not stopping an unproven pitcher from going somewhere else.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Oct 24, 2006 7:37:29 GMT -5
Yeah, and that 45 million will be ON TOP of what whatever you DO pay the pitcher to pitch for you. So, in an effort to be spiteful, the Jays will be the laughing stock of the league for paying A-Rod money for a guy they, in that instance outlined by Patrick, do not even want.
Its just not the way it works. Its bad business.
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Post by mac0822 on Oct 24, 2006 7:58:26 GMT -5
I guess I'm ignorant to how you deal with these gooks. A team has to PAY him $30 million just to speak to him? What if they can't reach a deal on a contract? They lose $30 million?
Also, who the fuck is going to give this slant eye more than a 3/30 type deal anyway??? Oh ya - the Yankees...my bad.
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Post by MSBNYY on Oct 24, 2006 8:04:17 GMT -5
That's basically it. The Japanese team owns the player for ten years, not unlike the MLB team owns a player for six.
There is obviously some sort of agreement between MLB and Japan not to plunder. So if a Japanese player wants to come to MLB, and his team gives him permission, there is a bidding war of sorts. MLB teams interested in the player will give a secret bid to the Japanese team for the exclusive rights to negotiate a contract with that player. They don't get the player himself, but they are the only MLB team who gets to negotiate. So whatever a team bids to get those rights goes to the Japanese team and only gets you to the table.
I don't know what happens if a team fails to sign that player. I don't know if it has ever actually happened. The closest was Hideki Irabu, who wanted to play for the Yankees, but San Diego won the rights. It was a fiasco because Irabu sabotaged the Padres.
San Diego later made a trade with the Yankees for those rights. And the Nolan Ryan of Japan came to the Bronx and gave us 7 incredible innings against Detroit.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Oct 24, 2006 8:28:33 GMT -5
The teams that are set to bid already have parameters in place with the agents for the player, so everyone knows going in what it is going to take to sign the player. Its not "hands off" before the bidding process, there are no tampering worries. The only teams that will be in the bidding know exactly what it is going to take to sign this guy after the bid is won, believe me.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Oct 24, 2006 8:37:38 GMT -5
If the Yankees get him, I hope he's good. If another team signs him, may he take a linedrive to the face.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Oct 24, 2006 8:49:26 GMT -5
Yankees won't get him. Seattle is pretty much a lock. The Yankees wont match the Seattle bid - they will simply bid a lot lower and hope Seattle's rumored bid is a bluff. (Its most likely not)
But dont worry, the Yankees are still throwing money all over the place. They went over the recommended draft slot money on 9 of their first 10 picks, including breaking records in 4 different rounds.
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Post by MSBNYY on Oct 24, 2006 9:10:24 GMT -5
If Seattle overpays for the guy, they will end up not being able to afford other players and then bitch at the Yankees because they spent money they didn't have.
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Post by globix on Oct 24, 2006 22:06:11 GMT -5
The way I understood it is that a team only pays the Japanese team if they come to an agreement with the player. I didn't mean the Blue Jays would pay $45 mil to strictly to keep him away from the yanks or Sox. They would bid $45 mil for the exclusive right to negotiate with him. Then when he rejects the lowball offer, Toronto is NOT liable for the $45 million. That's the way I understood it, could be wrong. I think such a parameter would be in place to keep the japanese team from posting a player, but instructing the player to reject any offer, so they get the post money and keep the player
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Post by MSBNYY on Oct 25, 2006 5:44:52 GMT -5
That's entirely possible. What happened with Irabu isn't a normal thing. San Diego probably still had to pay Chiba Lotte, but they traded their exclusive rights to the Yanks for some minor leaguers.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Oct 25, 2006 12:17:41 GMT -5
In more exciting news that must make the bidding teams tremble with joy, this guy has signed Scott Boras to represent him in his future negotiations.
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Post by 9 on Oct 25, 2006 12:42:48 GMT -5
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Post by MSBNYY on Oct 26, 2006 6:34:56 GMT -5
Interesting article in the Post about him. They seem to think he'll get #1 starter money, and a long term deal at $75 million for 5 years. I would be surprised if any team offers him that much. The guy may indeed be one of the best pitchers in the world. But he also may not be. That kind of money should only go to someone who has actually done it on the Major League level. But even that kind of deal is tough to justify for a pitcher these days.
That $75 million wouldn't even include the $20 million plus just to negotiate with him. So a team would spend $100 million on a guy who hasn't thrown a pitch in the major leagues?
If the guy works out, you're paying for it so you really didn't accomplish that much. And if he doesn't, you're a chump.
So my guess is that if the Yankees don't get him, he'll be the REAL Japanese Nolan Ryan. But if they do, he'll be the second coming of Irabu.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Oct 26, 2006 7:56:06 GMT -5
Thing is, this guy will probably work out. He comes with much better marks across the board than Irabu did. People seem to think Irabu had legendary status he was bringing over here back in the day, but that was never the case. It was more the novelty of bringing in a Japanese pitcher, something that was not done.
Bottom line, if someone really wants him, they NEED to pay that much money. There is demand. And from all accounts the Yankees will indeed be major players. I snicker at it. But, bottom line, the Yankees are a mess right now, and need to do something. There are not many options out there for them.
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Post by MSBNYY on Oct 26, 2006 8:08:19 GMT -5
I don't know about legendary status, but Irabu was HIGHLY touted--not because he was Japanese, but because of his talent. "Nolan Ryan of Japan." That said, I haven't looked all that hard, but if I remember right, Irabu was coming off a career year in Japan. Not unlike a Pavano, where he has one good year in a different league and suddenly is considered a good pitcher. Not saying that Irabu wasn't a top pitcher before that year, but I don't have the stats available to say--just going on memory. This guy may indeed be far more dominant. As for the Yankees being a mess, the real mess is in the pitching. So yeah, they do need to take a shot at someone who has a solid upside in a year where the pitching is weak. Let's hope if they do get him, he does produce. EDIT: Found the stats for both Irabu and Matsuzaka. Looks like Matsuzaka is the better pitcher based on his Japanese stats. Of course Japanese stats don't usually translate. www.thebaseballcube.com/players/I/hideki-irabu.shtmlwww.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/daisuke-matsuzaka.shtml
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Post by MSBNYY on Nov 2, 2006 9:03:12 GMT -5
In what would be considered a fairly big deal involving Matsuzaka, the bidding begins now, but the Mariners pulled out immediately. That should drop the posting expectations a bit. But then again, with everything so blind, it doesn't help much. It would seem that the Yanks and Mets will be bidding against each other.
I also read that the Seibu Lions, once they get the bids from MLB, can still choose whether they accept. I could be wrong, but I interpreted that as a means of saying that they aren't BOUND to accept the highest bid. The only reason NOT to accept the highest bid would be to take into account what team Matsuzaka wants to play for.
One thing in the Yanks favor is that his first exposure to the majors was watching the Yanks/Braves in the 1999 WS, and he seems to want to be a part of that.
This is an interesting process.
It got me thinking about something though. Obviously, there are some Japanese players that can cut it in the majors. And there is also clearly an agreement preventing MLB teams from poaching Japanese players and vice versa. They honor and respect the contracts of the other leagues.
But what I'm wondering about is why you don't see Japanese players, BEFORE they are signed by Japanese teams, scouted and drafted in MLB. Every other country seems to have some sort of access to the majors.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Nov 2, 2006 9:17:49 GMT -5
Actually, only the highest bidder can negotiate with him. If the Lions choose to not accept that, the guy can walk on them and choose not to play and the Lions get no him, and no money from a team out here. They wont block him coming over here.
From all the accounts I have read, including my most trusted sources, they are calling him the most valuable guy out there, hitter or pitcher. He would lead the free-agent crop if he was part of it.
He is pretty much looked upon as a surefire #1 starter. Irabu never had this much support back in the day.
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Post by MSBNYY on Nov 2, 2006 9:27:26 GMT -5
His numbers in Japan are similar to Irabu's, though slightly better. Of course, those numbers don't translate--see Irabu, or Kaz Matsui.
I believe the scouts are better today than 10 years ago regarding Japanese players. I remember Irabu as being highly touted--until he actually got here and pitched in the minors.
Matsuaka's a year younger than Irabu was. I read today he would likely command about a 4 year, $48 million deal.
Regarding not accepting the highest bid, I suppose it was poor writing from the article I read. But it does seem that this process is strange. It's great for the Japanese team, but pretty much no one else.
Hell of a risk if he flops.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Nov 2, 2006 9:31:52 GMT -5
Balls, i went back and looked at reports on Irabu from 96 from Baseball America's archives, and he was not touted nearly as highly as this guy is. His list of negatives was pretty long.
Also, keep in mind the Jap team would be bound to accept the high bid simply due to the strong relations between American and Japanese baseball. Its a system that is agreed to and in place. It would cause a lot of future problems that no one needs to pull back on the bidding process. Its not even something we should talk about, as it wont happen.
Last I heard there were another 6 major players outside of the Mariners for the services of this guy. I am sure the Yankees will still need to work at it if they want him, Mariners or no.
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Post by MSBNYY on Nov 2, 2006 9:39:49 GMT -5
Thing is though, the bids are all secret. If the Yankees bid $24 million and the Mets bid $25 million, and the Japanese team does not say anything, what's to really STOP them? The bids are sealed and delivered to the Commissioners office. I couldn't even find anything to say that the Commish's office even opens them.
Thing is, one team pulling out, even one expected to bid high, shouldn't TOTALLY mess things up--BECAUSE of the blind bidding process.
As for Irabu's negatives, what I do remember is that the obvious intent was for him to be a bargain ace, not a number 5 like he turned out to be.
Seems the Yanks just fucked up in hindsight, but I guess they learned their lessons. The only bad part is that they learned it a little too late, and passed on Ichiro.
I remember Irabu was supposed to have a 98 MPH fastball. I think in reality it was 94. Big difference.
I wonder what Matsuzaka throws.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Nov 2, 2006 9:55:52 GMT -5
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Post by MSBNYY on Nov 2, 2006 10:03:17 GMT -5
Very interesting piece. Maybe I just skimmed, but when they say, "I rate the fastball a 70" what is that supposed to represent?
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Nov 2, 2006 10:18:20 GMT -5
Scouts rate things on a 20-80 scale, with 80 being off the charts awesome.
If something is sitting at a 70....well, with that the guy would rank at the best in the league in that category. Dont see many 80s, outside of baserunning speed.
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Post by MSBNYY on Nov 3, 2006 10:38:09 GMT -5
Looks like the Dodgers are not going to bid on Matsuzaka. I would guess he's either going to be a Yankee, a Met, or a Red Sux.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Nov 3, 2006 10:52:54 GMT -5
Uh, there are a few other teams in the mix. Closer to 10, than 4.
And there is ALWAYS a wildcard that no one is talking about that will sneak a bid in.
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Post by MSBNYY on Nov 3, 2006 11:17:56 GMT -5
They're all dropping out. Many teams don't want to spend $20-$30 million just to NEGOTIATE with the guy. Let's estimate the low end. $20 million. It will likely take 4-5 years at $10 million per year (conservative estimate) to sign him.
Let's again, go on the low end and say 4 years at $10 million.
That's $60 million spent on the guy, for 4 years. $15 million per year. A lot of teams wouldn't want to do that for a guy who hasn't thrown a pitch in the majors. Too risky.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Nov 3, 2006 11:39:08 GMT -5
Balls, your numbers are all wrong. He is going to command a LOT more yearly. Like $15 million plus. That is on top of the posting fee.
$10 million a year? Who do you think he is, Jeff Suppan?
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Post by MSBNYY on Nov 3, 2006 12:32:49 GMT -5
Tom--I was using LOW end numbers just to prove a point. I've heard two potential numbers--5 years at $50 million, and 4 years at $48 million.
I highly doubt he'll get $15 million a year without throwing a pitch though. Assuming he really is an ace, he'll get less than ace money simply because he's a rookie. That's expected. Matsui and Ichiro also got less than they were worth in their first contracts.
A team that would sign Jeff Suppan for $10 million a year is a stupid team.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Nov 3, 2006 12:51:28 GMT -5
He WILL get 15 or more. Its just fact. There is pretty much universal agreement that he will become one of the top 3 pitchers in the major leagues the second he signs a contract.
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Post by MSBNYY on Nov 3, 2006 13:14:09 GMT -5
I'll believe that when I see it. But that said, the higher his expected salary, the fewer number of teams one can expect to bid.
Let's say he gets $15 million for 4 years. And let's say it takes $20 million to buy the rights to sign him (again, that's a low number). That's $80 million committed to him.
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