Post by MSBNYY on Oct 1, 2007 10:05:28 GMT -5
So the season is over, and it's time to look at some of the preseason picks v. the actual results.
Obviously, you can't account for the manager him or herself. You can't account for trades and injuries, and lineup changes.
The manager can affect things.
For the most part, the predictions went pretty well. Suzy was the biggest inaccuracy, but so many people on her team did much better than the year before. Guys like Jorge, Prince Fielder, Mark Ellis, Khahlil Greene, Jake Peavy and CC Sabbathia all not only surpassed their 2006 totals, they did so by a lot. Hell of a year, and hell of a team.
On Suzy's team I predicted Drew would get 450 points. He got 395. Hill was predicted to get 350 points. He got 333. Hamels was predicted to get 400 points. He got 426. Not bad shooting there.
Larry was predicted to finish in first place, and ended in second. Not a bad call. I had his team pegged pretty well from the get go. The big difference was Weaver, who Tom correctly said was over hyped. Weaver only got 259 points this year, and I gave him 500. I gave Larry 7419 points this year. Take away the 241 points I was off by Weaver, and he has 7178. That's only 27 points off from what he got.
I had Neil and Laura pegged perfectly at 11th and 12th. The numbers were a bit off, but the placing was right. Laura's team was awful--but the reality was that it did even worse than expectations.
Anthony Reyes killed Laura. But on her team, I had Varitek on the money. I gave him 350 and he got 370. I wasn't too far off on Lilly either, who actually got 54 points more than I expected.
There was a cluster of teams in the real standings from places 4-8. They were less than 100 points apart. Those 5 teams were Knoblauch, Milton, Pops, Capone, and Evan.
In the predicted standings, Evan, Pops, Knoblauch were in the group predicted to finish 3-7.
Evan and Pops were predicted to be 16 points apart, with Pops on top. They ended up 7 points apart, with Pops on top.
Tom's team was pegged well points wise, but not in the stanings. He was predicted to go in 8th place, with 6952 points. He ended up with 6981 points.
I ranked 26 players at the beginning. I was fairly accurate on the following:
1. Chris B. Young--480 predicted/505 actual
2. Matsuzaka-- 400/346
3. Delmon Young-- 450/441
4. Alex Gordon--450/396
5. Hideki Matsui--550/540
6. AJ Burnett--340/314
7. Jason Varitek-- 350/370
8. Ted Lilly-- 340/394
9. Steven Drew--450/395
10. Rich Hill--350/333
11. Cole Hamels-- 400/426
12. Gerald Laird-- 275/274 (best shot)
13. Gary Sheffield-- 550/523
14. Tim Hudson-- 300/366
The others were either off by more (Bonds, Derrick Lee, Weaver) or they were injured and/or sent to the minors.
Either way, it was worth doing the predictions.
Obviously, you can't account for the manager him or herself. You can't account for trades and injuries, and lineup changes.
The manager can affect things.
For the most part, the predictions went pretty well. Suzy was the biggest inaccuracy, but so many people on her team did much better than the year before. Guys like Jorge, Prince Fielder, Mark Ellis, Khahlil Greene, Jake Peavy and CC Sabbathia all not only surpassed their 2006 totals, they did so by a lot. Hell of a year, and hell of a team.
On Suzy's team I predicted Drew would get 450 points. He got 395. Hill was predicted to get 350 points. He got 333. Hamels was predicted to get 400 points. He got 426. Not bad shooting there.
Larry was predicted to finish in first place, and ended in second. Not a bad call. I had his team pegged pretty well from the get go. The big difference was Weaver, who Tom correctly said was over hyped. Weaver only got 259 points this year, and I gave him 500. I gave Larry 7419 points this year. Take away the 241 points I was off by Weaver, and he has 7178. That's only 27 points off from what he got.
I had Neil and Laura pegged perfectly at 11th and 12th. The numbers were a bit off, but the placing was right. Laura's team was awful--but the reality was that it did even worse than expectations.
Anthony Reyes killed Laura. But on her team, I had Varitek on the money. I gave him 350 and he got 370. I wasn't too far off on Lilly either, who actually got 54 points more than I expected.
There was a cluster of teams in the real standings from places 4-8. They were less than 100 points apart. Those 5 teams were Knoblauch, Milton, Pops, Capone, and Evan.
In the predicted standings, Evan, Pops, Knoblauch were in the group predicted to finish 3-7.
Evan and Pops were predicted to be 16 points apart, with Pops on top. They ended up 7 points apart, with Pops on top.
Tom's team was pegged well points wise, but not in the stanings. He was predicted to go in 8th place, with 6952 points. He ended up with 6981 points.
I ranked 26 players at the beginning. I was fairly accurate on the following:
1. Chris B. Young--480 predicted/505 actual
2. Matsuzaka-- 400/346
3. Delmon Young-- 450/441
4. Alex Gordon--450/396
5. Hideki Matsui--550/540
6. AJ Burnett--340/314
7. Jason Varitek-- 350/370
8. Ted Lilly-- 340/394
9. Steven Drew--450/395
10. Rich Hill--350/333
11. Cole Hamels-- 400/426
12. Gerald Laird-- 275/274 (best shot)
13. Gary Sheffield-- 550/523
14. Tim Hudson-- 300/366
The others were either off by more (Bonds, Derrick Lee, Weaver) or they were injured and/or sent to the minors.
Either way, it was worth doing the predictions.
