The 2009 Draft Thread

[$heriff Tom]

Mise as well get this one kicked off. In the next few weeks, for those interested, I will post some tidbits I stumble upon here and there. Anyone can feel free to add or interject.

By far the concensus # 1 - and oh, are the Nationals set to pounce on this one - is Stephen Strasburg. Universally he is, quite frankly, being called the best college pitching prospect in - well, forever.

If you have not heard of this young man, take a peek at what he did just last night.

Strasburg K's 17 in no-hitter
It's the first no-no for presumed top pick in 2009 Draft



SAN DIEGO -- Stephen Strasburg has done just about everything in his amateur career, from striking out 23 in a game to pitching for the Olympic team to cementing his place as the top talent in this June's First-Year Player Draft class. The one thing the San Diego State ace hadn't done was pitch a no-hitter.

Until now.

Facing an aggressive Air Force lineup at Tony Gwynn Stadium, the presumed top pick in the Draft threw the first no-no of his career on Friday night as the Aztecs won, 5-0, in front of a stadium-record crowd of 3,337.

"I was giving everything I had left," said Strasburg about a ninth inning that had the sellout crowd on their feet. "In that last inning, I think my stuff was the best it was all game. It was great to see a bunch of fans come out again, especially possibly for my last home night. To finish it like that was very memorable."

Strasburg allowed just two baserunners all night, both via walks, and one was erased trying to steal. Only one runner reached second base against Strasburg. He struck out 17 while throwing a fairly economical 116 pitches.

"I'm pretty much forcing guys to hit my best stuff," Strasburg said. "If they do, then maybe I'll change it. Tonight, they didn't."

Strasburg started the game by striking out two of the game's first three batters looking, and he punctuated it by striking out the side in the ninth to end it, throwing down his glove and jumping into his catcher's arms in jubilation. He also struck out the side in the second and the sixth. The only inning he didn't record a strikeout was in the eighth, and he was never really challenged.

Strasburg masterfully mixed his pitches, locating his 95-98 mph fastball all night while consistently buckling the knees of Air Force hitters with his nasty slider.

"The first pitch of the game kind of set the tone with what happened the rest of the night," Aztecs coach Tony Gwynn said. "He threw a fastball 97-98 mph, and the guy was right on it, fouled it straight back. After that, he mixed in the breaking ball, he threw his changeup [and] he spotted his fastball. Even if you're aggressive, the breaking ball kind of keeps you in check. From the second inning on, he was able to throw that thing for a strike."

All this took place with most of the Washington Nationals brass, including acting general manager Mike Rizzo and scouting director Dana Brown, in attendance. The Nationals, of course, have the No. 1 pick in the Draft. True to what he's said all season, Strasburg maintains focus on the here and now with his current team, rather than what uniform he might be wearing later this summer.

"The game's not over, the season's not over. We still have a lot to accomplish," Strasburg said. "Every game is extremely important for me and this team. It's crunch time right now. This was a must-win game and a must-win series. We have to pick up these next two to stay in a good position to get to a regional."

For the season, Strasburg is 11-0 with a 1.24 ERA. He's struck out 164 against just 17 walks in 87 1/3 innings while yielding just 48 hits. He's reached double digits in strikeouts in 11 of his 12 starts, and he's never walked more than two in one outing.

"I guess I should be super-happy tonight, but I'm telling you, he just methodically goes about his business," Gwynn said. "He kind of thought out what he wants to do and how he wants to do it, then he goes out and executes it.

"He threw all his pitches. He threw them ahead in the count, he threw them behind in the count, you know, the things good pitchers do. In the ninth inning, he closed the deal. He's what every team should be looking for."

In many ways it was more surprising that he'd never thrown a no-hitter than that he pulled it off on Friday. Though, when pressed for the truth, Strasburg did admit that this wasn't really the first time he'd held a team hitless.

"Little League, but that doesn't count," he said.

[$heriff Tom]

Thanks to Baseball America for letting me steal this for you guys. Strasburg is sick....one telling thing I keep reading is we wont see a prospect like this for possibly "another 30 years."


Head Of The Class
Draft's top talent is creating LeBron-like hype

By Conor Glassey
April 15, 2009

Major League Baseball's amateur draft has increased steadily in popularity and availability over the past few years, from 1998, when the draft results were made public for the first time, to 2001 when the conference call was first streamed live online to 2007 when the first round was televised on ESPN. This year's draft, scheduled for June 9-11 at the MLB Network studios in New York, is getting a lot of attention thanks to the guy at the top.

Let's take a look at some of the prevailing themes of this year's crop . . .

Class Of His Own

The first thing that stands out about this draft is the blue-chipper at the head of the class. Far and away the consensus top talent, San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg isn't just generating a substantial amount of buzz for an amateur baseball player . . . he's reaching LeBron James circa 2003 territory. The Nationals own the No. 1 pick and Strasburg's adviser, Scott Boras, has already floated a $50 million price tag and called him a real-life Sidd Finch. The record guarantee for a drafted player is Mark Prior's $10.5 million from 2001.

Strasburg put his name on the map when he was the No. 1 prospect in the New England Collegiate League as a freshman in 2007, then became a national story when he struck out 23 batters against Utah as a sophomore last April. The buzz has grown into a roar after he was the only college player named to the U.S. Olympic team and as he's been lighting up triple digits on the radar gun this spring.

Of course he's been featured here in the pages of Baseball America, but he's also had articles written about him for ESPN The Magazine, Sports Illustrated and USA Today, among others. He has fan blogs, dozens of YouTube videos and on eBay, certified Strasburg autographed cards are already selling for more than $500.

Google "Stephen Strasburg" and there are 389,000 results. To put that in perspective, doing the same for last year's first-overall pick Tim Beckham gets you just 44,700. Strasburg even has more Google results than his coach, Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn.

Veteran scouts can't remember the last time a player was this far ahead of the rest of the draft pack, and the gap is even bigger behind Strasburg because there's not a consensus No. 2 prospect.

"There's probably not anybody right behind him where teams are going, 'Oh well, if we don't get Strasburg, we'll get this guy, so we're okay,'" a National League scouting director said. "All the guys that were supposed to be there have all kind of been struggling a little bit, so I'm sure the teams right behind the Nationals are kind of scratching their heads."

David Price was a wire-to-wire 1-1 guy in 2007, but Matt Wieters was right there. Similarly, Prior was out in front in 2001, but fell to the second-overall pick because of his price tag. The Twins chose Joe Mauer first that year and Mark Texeira was right in the mix, too. In 1999, the debate was which Josh would be selected first: Hamilton or Beckett.

The other guys at the top of teams' draft boards all have unanswered questions. USC shortstop Grant Green got off to a soft start offensively, North Carolina first baseman Dustin Ackley has the tools to play center field, but has been out there for only a handful of innings this spring and teams will be hesitant to select him that high without seeing him out there. The top high school position player, Cartersville (Ga.) HS outfielder Donavan Tate, is the son of former NFL running back Lars Tate and is committed to North Carolina to play both baseball and football. Like Strasburg, the Scott Boras Corporation also advises all three of those players.

"I get the sense that number two hasn't defined himself yet and there might not be a consensus number two right up to the draft," an American League scouting director said. "Particularly with so many Boras clients up at the top, signability is also going to be a factor."

Strasburg's draft-stock prominence could be the greatest since 1989 when the Orioles made LSU righthander Ben McDonald the first overall pick. Washington State's John Olerud, who was BA's 1988 College Player of the Year, would have challenged McDonald for the top spot, but a brain aneurysm caused him to miss most of the season and he was eventually drafted in the third round, 79th overall, by the Blue Jays.

There are certainly some parallels between Strasburg and McDonald.

Teams had Big Ben tabbed as the No. 1 pick a year before the draft. In 1988, McDonald was on the U.S. Olympic team after his sophomore year of college—a feat Strasburg repeated 20 years later, though in '88 the Olympic team was all college players, while in 2008 Strasburg was the only amateur on a professional roster. McDonald also set a draft-bonus record at the time and Strasburg is likely to follow in McDonald's footsteps in that regard, as well. In our 1989 Draft Preview issue, we ran a headline, "Top choice only thing certain a bout '89 draft." Sound familiar?

Giants scouting director John Barr was the Orioles' scouting director in 1989 when Baltimore took McDonald No. 1 overall.

"I remember watching him pitch against Oklahoma State in the dome in New Orleans and he just had a dominating type of performance," Barr recalled. "You sit there and you look at it and one of the most dominating starting pitchers I ever saw was Ben McDonald. We were happy and excited that we picked him 1-1, but there were actually other guys—not just from that draft, but even on that LSU staff in Paul Byrd and Russ Springer—that ended up pitching longer in the big leagues. That's not to take anything away from Ben McDonald, because I don't want it to be that way, but even when you have somebody that far ahead, you just don't know what's going to happen. But it was a thrill to watch Ben McDonald in college and as a pro, just like it is to watch Stephen Strasburg."

The gap between Strasburg and the rest of the pack could be the biggest since Ken Griffey Jr. in 1987 or Darryl Strawberry in 1980. Then again, it could be unprecedented.

"It could be," another American League scouting director said when asked if Strasburg's stock is the furthest ahead since McDonald. "It's been a long time and I don't know when there's been another Strasburg. I can't remember the disparity being like this as long as I've been a scouting director and I think you could probably make the case that it's never been this big. Strasburg is kind of a unique prospect, so it's a unique situation."

Arms Race

Scouting directors seem to agree that the strength of this year's class is pitching. Since 1987, the first year the draft was limited to only one phase, the most pitchers selected in the first round is 20—in 2001 and 1999. We have 19 pitchers listed in the top 32 of our Midseason Top 50 list (compensation picks to the Nationals and Yankees for not signing righthanders Aaron Crow and Gerrit Cole, respectively, have made this the biggest first round ever). This year's group is essentially the opposite of last year, when there were only 10 pitchers selected in the first round, the second-lowest total since 1987.

"It's a real strong year for pitching," the National League scouting director said. "It seems like there's a lot of velocity in this draft—more than we've seen in a while and it's good for high school and college and there's a few lefthanders in there as well. So, that's been fun to sift through."

Outside of Strasburg, there are 10 more pitchers currently projected to go in the top half of the first round: college players like Missouri righthander Kyle Gibson, North Carolina righthander Alex White, Arizona State righthander Mike Leake, Vanderbilt lefthander Mike Minor and Lipscomb lefthander Rex Brothers. While Kentucky's James Paxton, another southpaw, had been the high riser about a month ago, he's lost some helium due to a knee injury, while Brothers' stock has skyrocketed after as his fastball has sat at 94-97 mph this spring with a power mid-80s slider. He struck out 11 in six innings at Fresno State, then wowed more than a dozen scouting directors in an April 3 matchup with Kennesaw State's 6-foot-9 righthander Kyle Heckathorn. The stocky 6-foot-1, 200-pound junior ranked 77th on BA's College Top 100 in the preseason but has smoothed out a head whack in his delivery, improving both his velocity and command.

The group also includes high school lefthanders Tyler Matzek of Capistrano Valley High in Mission Viejo, Calif. and Matt Purke of Klein High in Spring, Texas, as well as righthander Shelby Miller of Brownswood (Texas) High and the aforementioned Crow, who will be playing for the independent Fort Worth Cats beginning in May. Only three pitchers were selected in the top 15 picks last year.

The scouting director said the weakness this year is established position players. While last year's college crop was brimming with polished college bats, that's not the case this time around.

Another scouting director echoed that sentiment. "Every year is different," the first American League scouting director said. "This year, I think the prevailing theme is the lack of high-end hitters, if I had to come up with one theme that jumps out to me ahead of all others. Luckily, I think it's offset by the depth of high-end pitchers, specifically college pitchers."

[$heriff Tom]

TOP 50 DRAFT PROSPECTS

1. Stephen Strasburg, rhp, San Diego State: The consensus top pick and it's not close. Touches triple digits with his fastball and has nearly two strikeouts per inning.
2. Grant Green, ss, Southern California: Starting to heat up after pressing early in the season.
3. Dustin Ackley, 1b, North Carolina: Hitting really well, as expected, but still mostly playing first base.
4. Tyler Matzek, lhp, Capistrano Valley HS, Mission Viejo, Calif.: Great overall package, but missed some time in early April with a blood blister on left index finger.
5. Kyle Gibson, rhp, Missouri: Using his fastball more often has led to improved results.
6. Donavan Tate, of, Cartersville (Ga.) HS: The son of former NFL running back Lars Tate, this five-tool athlete is committed to UNC for baseball and football.
7. Alex White, rhp, North Carolina: Hasn't looked as sharp this season as he did at the end of last season, and some scouts have expressed concerns over a change in his arm action.
8. Aaron Crow, rhp, Fort Worth Cats: Did not sign after being selected by the Nationals with the ninth overall pick last year. Will pitch for the independent Fort Worth Cats beginning this May.
9. Shelby Miller, rhp, Brownwood (Texas) HS: Physical righthander has reportedly touched 97 mph this spring.
10. Matt Purke, lhp, Klein (Texas) HS: Works in the low 90s and touches 95 mph but is slipping further behind Matzek as top prep lefthander due to mechanical questions.
11. Brett Jackson, of, California: Plays hard and does a little bit of everything, but strikeouts could be a concern.
12. Rich Poythress, 1b, Georgia: His .430/.528/.852 line looks even better in a year thin on power. Father was a Cubs farmhand in the '70s.
13. Mike Leake, rhp, Arizona State: Ultimate competitor has been carving up the Pac-10 for the past three years.
14. Mike Minor, lhp, Vanderbilt: Knows how to pitch, but stuff was down a bit this spring before a bounceback start against Arkansas.
15. Rex Brothers, lhp, Lipscomb: No one has more helium than Brothers, who has been sitting 94-97 mph with a hard, wipeout slider.
16. Jacob Turner, rhp, Westminster Christian Academy, St. Louis: Ideal pitcher's build at 6-foot-4, 205 pounds with a fastball that touches 94 mph.
17. Jared Mitchell, of, Louisiana State: Superb athlete has big tools and also plays wide receiver for LSU's football team.
18. Luke Bailey, c, Troup HS, LaGrange, Ga.: Top prep catcher in a great year for prep catchers.
19. Tyler Skaggs, lhp, Santa Monica (Calif.) HS: Scouts love Skaggs' projectable 6-foot-5, 190-pound frame.
20. Kentrail Davis, of, Tennessee: Draft-eligible sophomore's stock is down, and signability is a question.
21. Tim Wheeler, of, Sacramento State: Showing power/speed combo with .792 slugging and 12 stolen bases through first 33 games.
22. Andrew Oliver, lhp, Oklahoma State: Scouts know he has good stuff, but the results haven't been pretty.
23. Everett Williams, of, McCallum HS, Austin: Tools galore from Williams, whose cousin played in Reds organization, father played in NFL and two aunts are in pro softball Hall of Fame.
24. James Paxton, lhp, Kentucky: Slowed recently by knee tendinitis, the 6-foot-4 lefthander has been touching 97 mph.
25. Kendal Volz, rhp, Baylor: Athletic 6-foot-4, 225-pounder dials it up to 95 mph and puts hitters away with a hard 82 mph slider.
26. Jason Stoffel, rhp, Arizona: The top reliever in this year's class, Stoffel has a 94-95 mph fastball and loves being on the mound late in the game.
27. A.J. Pollock, of, Notre Dame: Parlayed a good showing on the Cape into a successful spring.
28. Brooks Raley, lhp/of, Texas A&M: Draft-eligible sophomore is leading the Aggies at the plate and on the mound.
29. Alex Wilson, rhp, Texas A&M: Dealing this year after missing '08 because of Tommy John surgery.
30. Bobby Borchering, 3b, Bishop Verot HS, Fort Myers, Fla.: Plus power from both sides of the plate.
31. Brian Goodwin, of, Rocky Mount (N.C.) HS: Fleet-footed center fielder profiles as ideal leadoff hitter.
32. Zack Wheeler, rhp, East Paulding HS, Dallas, Ga.: Commands three big league pitches and has effortless delivery.
33. Matt Hobgood, rhp, Norco (Calif.) HS: Big stuff—90-94 mph fastball and hard curveball—match big 6-foot-4, 245-pound frame.
34. Mychal Givens, rhp/ss, Plant HS, Tampa: Plays both ways, but velocity on mound is hard to ignore.
35. D.J. LeMahieu, ss, Louisiana State: Setting the table for potent LSU offense; range is questionable.
36. Sam Dyson, lhp, South Carolina: Draft-eligible sophomore dialing it up to 98 mph with a hammer.
37. Tony Sanchez, c, Boston College: Complete backstop is hitting .388/.475/.731 through first 134 at-bats.
38. Ryan Jackson, ss, Miami: Questions about his bat, but has the glove to stick at shortstop.
39. Jiovanni Mier, ss, Bonita HS, La Verne, Calif.: Rare prep shortstop who profiles to stay there as a pro.
40. Max Stassi, c, Yuba City (Calif.) HS: One of the top pure hitters in this year's high school class, at a premium position no less.
41. Kyle Heckathorn, rhp, Kennesaw State: Has rebounded nicely after slow start.
42. Brad Boxberger, rhp, Southern California: Has three average pitches, although lacks a true out-pitch and struggles with control.
43. Ben Tootle, rhp, Jacksonville State: Cape Cod standout is probably a reliever in the long run.
44. Wil Myers, c/3b, Wesleyan Christian Academy, High Point, N.C.: Hitting well while playing all over the diamond—catcher, third base, first base and pitcher.
45. Jake Marisnick, of, Riverside (Calif.) HS: Superb athlete has five-tool potential, but has struggled offensively early this season.
46. Matt Davidson, 3b, Yucaipa (Calif.) HS: Some of the best raw power in this year's high school crop.
47. Austin Maddox, c, Eagle's View Academy, Jacksonville: Tremendous arm behind the plate, but throws can be erratic. Rare amateur player allowed to call his own game.
48. LeVon Washington, 2b/of, Buchholz HS, Gainesville, Fla.: One of the fastest players in the draft: runs a 6.35 60-yard dash.
49. Chad James, lhp, Yukon (Okla.) HS: Strong, pro body means his 88-90 mph fastball has room to grow.
50. Tanner Scheppers, rhp, St. Paul Saints: The wild card of this year's draft. Slipped in last year's draft with a shoulder injury, hoping to rebound with indy ball stint this spring.

[MSBNYY]

I thought I read somewhere that the Yanks get a pick or two that they don't lose because they didn't sign last year's guys.

[$heriff Tom]

Yankees do not pick until 29th, and the only reason they get that pick is that Gerit Cole did not sign with them last year. Its the only pick in round 1. I think they also get an extra pick in the 3rd round. The Diamondbacks get 7 of the first 67 picks, and the Nationals have the #1 pick, and the #10 pick. Yankees do themselves no favors in these drafts - they are too busy signing the Tex's and CCs of the world to worry about drafts.

Heres a cheat-sheet to the whats and whys.

First-Round Changes
10. Nationals (for failure to sign 2008 first-rounder Aaron Crow)
17. Diamondbacks (from Dodgers for Orlando Hudson, A)
24. Angels (from Mets for Francisco Rodriguez, A)
25. Angels (from Yankees for Mark Texeira, A)
27. Mariners (from Phillies for Raul Ibanez, A)
29. Yankees (for failure to sign 2008 first-rounder Gerrit Cole)
32. Rockies (from Angels for Brian Fuentes, A)

Supplemental First-Round Picks
33. Mariners (Ibanez)
34. Rockies (Fuentes)
35. Diamondbacks (Hudson)
36. Dodgers (Derek Lowe, A, to Braves)
37. Blue Jays (A.J. Burnett, A, to Yankees)
38. White Sox (Orlando Cabrera, A, to Athletics)
39. Brewers (C.C. Sabathia, A, to Yankees)
40. Angels (Texeira)
41. Diamondbacks (Juan Cruz, A, to Royals)
42. Angels (Rodriguez)
43. Reds (Jeremy Affeldt, B, to Giants)
44. Rangers (Milton Bradley, B, to Cubs)
45. Diamondbacks (Brandon Lyon, B, to Tigers)
46. Twins (Dennys Reyes, B, to Cardinals)
47. Brewers (Brian Shouse, B, to Rays)
48. Angels (Jon Garland, B, to Diamondbacks)
49. Pirates (for failure to sign 2008 second-rounder Tanner Scheppers)

Second-Round Changes
56. Dodgers (from Braves for Lowe)
60. Diamondbacks (from Royals for Cruz)
61. White Sox (from Athletics for Cabrera)
73. Brewers (from Yankees for Sabathia)
76. Yankees (for failure to sign 2008 second-rounder Scott Bittle)

Third-Round Changes
104. Blue Jays (from Yankees for Burnett)

Supplemental Third-Round Picks
111. Astros (for failure to sign 2008 third-rounder Chase Davidson)

[MSBNYY]

Of course, but I think CC and Tex are worth more than anyone in the draft. The goal of any player in the draft is to BECOME a CC or Tex.

Losing picks for guys like THAT? No problem. It's losing picks for guys like Pavano or Giambi that's a problem.

If the free agent produces at the right level throughout the contract--great.

If not, you blew a draft pick. Plus there are type A guys that are middle relievers, and while good, the shelf life of a middle reliever may not be as high as the shelf life of a high pick.

You think any unsignable guys may drop to 29 so the Yanks can pay them above slot?

Looks like the 29th best in the ranking is Alex Wilson. A TJ surgery guy. I would think if he's ranked 29th, he must have got people's attention at a higher level before the surgery.

Any truth to that?

[$heriff Tom]

There is no doubt that if any of the top names drop due to either signability concerns - or health concerns - the Yankees have the money and pedigree to go over slot and not think twice of it. We got Joba - and Brackman - because they dropped to us. So we may not be getting a "29th ranked" sort of guy, but a "#10" that people shied away from.

I have an issue at home that actually did a mock draft, and they have someone they forecasted to the Yankees. Forgot who it is, or why they feel its such an astute move if it was to happen.

Brooks Raley and Kendal Volz are the two "20 to 30 rank" guys I like best out of that crop for various reasons, but that means little.

[MSBNYY]

One problem I see is Boston has the pick before the Yanks, but isn't it true that Boston doesn't believe in signing above slot?

[MSBNYY]

Boras is talking $50 million for the first round pick, who is being called a real life Sidd Finch.

[$heriff Tom]

To answer on those, Boston is not afraid to pay up. And drafting that late, you may not even want to go "above slot" - you may have a guy with no leverage who is just looking to sign, or you may be able to have them agree to slot money. Not a lot of guys year to year end up blowing out slot money.

Ok, heres the deal with Strasburg - Boras IS talking that money, but no one in the world expects him to sign for more than $10-15 million. He has NO leverage. No way he does not sign, and risk having to do this again next year, with college ball in the rear-view, and nothing but Indy ball as an option.

Read the article I posted, this kid is from all accounts the real deal, and the best college prospect since, well, just about forever.

He will break records on signing bonus, but it will be around $15 million as a topper. And he WONT risk not signing and getting his career started. The Nationals are not going to short-change him, but at the same time they realize they cant pass on picking this guy.

[MSBNYY]

That's going to be interesting to watch.

That article compares him to Ben McDonald's hype. The bottom line is that you still have to make it to the bigs, and that's hard for anyone, even sure things. Anything can happen, from being overhyped to getting a shoulder injury in a bar fight.

[sean]

How did Wash. score the #10 pick? Will they pony up for Straudsberg? I've read a few articles lately calling for a rule change allowing teams to trade draft picks, as opposed to just passing on guys they can't afford.

[$heriff Tom]

While the idea of trading draft picks has been discussed, its not close to being passed, and is very unlikely. There is a very strong belief that bad teams need to restock the cupboard, and the last thing we need is strong teams like the Yankees or Bosox stocking up on draft picks while they are also landing multi-hundred-million dollar free agents. So that talk is just idle chatter.

Sean, the thing I posted tells exactly why Washington gets the 10th pick too - failure to sign last years #10. The dope wanted 4 million, Washington was stuck at 3.5 million, and the guy walked away. Thats just silly on both sides. But Washington gets a re-do. Same thing the Yankees got with Gerit Cole, although that pick came later - thus the later 1st round pick for the Yankees. Same slotting.

[MSBNYY]

From Yankees.com

The Yankees could highlight an athletic outfield prospect like California's Brett Jackson on their Draft board, and there has been talk about Southern California shortstop Grant Green and Boston College catcher Tony Sanchez. One wonders how flexible the idea of a Draft budget is for the Yankees, who shelled out $423.5 million to lock up Sabathia, Texeira and Burnett without much of a second thought.

Shopping list
Oppenheimer outlined desires for athleticism, power arms and left-handed pitching. "There are holes that we need to address -- the system is in pretty good shape, but we need to continue to pound stuff in it," he said.

Trend watch
The Yankees haven't been shy about taking high-risk players early, knowing that Cole had a signability issue, while 2008 compensation-round pick Jeremy Bleich and 2007 first-rounder Andrew Brackman had injury issues. After not signing Cole and letting second-rounder Joseph Bittle walk unsigned due to health concerns in '08, the Yankees may be somewhat less courageous in that department.

Recent top picks
2008: Cole, Orange Lutheran (Calif.) High School -- Despite having attended the 2001 World Series in Arizona as a Yankees fan, Cole was not ready to begin his professional career and instead opted for college. The Yankees never even reached a stage in negotiations where they could have made an offer to Cole.
2007: Brackman, North Carolina State University -- The 6-foot-10 Brackman missed the 2008 regular season with Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery and began this season with Class A Charleston of the South Atlantic League. Through his first 11 starts, Brackman is 1-4 with a 3.53 ERA, though control continues to be an issue.
2006: Right-hander Ian Kennedy, University of Southern California -- It has been a mixed bag for Kennedy as a professional, with his success at the Minor League level outweighing his contributions as a big leaguer so far. Kennedy is 1-4 with a 6.14 ERA in 13 games (12 starts) with the Yankees, including an 0-4 record and an 8.17 ERA last year. He is currently sidelined as he recovers from an aneurysm.

Rising fast
The Yankees are very high on catcher Austin Romine, who was the club's second-round selection in 2007 and has earned raves for his defensive ability and maturity. Romine hit .300 with 10 homers and 49 RBIs in 104 games last year for Class A Charleston and is playing well this season at Class A Tampa.

Cinderella story
Now a trusted arm in New York's bullpen, left-hander Phil Coke was a 26th-round selection in the 2002 Draft and did not escape Class A ball for five seasons, battling weight issues as a professional. He was sidelined with elbow problems in 2004 and '07 before standing out last summer with a clearer mind-set.

[$heriff Tom]

I dont think the writer knows what he is talking about. Grant Green is going to go in the first 5 picks ,and Jackson probably not far after that. Yankees are not drafting for another couple of dozen picks. Those guys will be LONG gone. Even Sanchez, the C....where did he come up with him?

I mean, Sanchez is fine...he IS the # 1 ranked catcher - and even the projected list above has him going towards or into the 2nd round as a projection, but that is the name he comes up in there? I dont like statements like, "there has been talk about.." - talk from who?

He lost me at Green, who will be gone minutes into the start of the draft and just a memory by the time the Yankees come around.

[MSBNYY]

Out of curiosity, any comparisons in potential between Romine and Sanchez? Is it WORTH it to draft a catcher or should they stick with Romine, while looking for a shortstop.

[$heriff Tom]

Balls, important to note - and I need to remind some of you every year - they dont draft to POSITIONAL NEED. Its "draft the best guy on the board, and figure it out later." There are teams out there with 5 middle infielders all ready for 2 spots in AAA. Those are fun decisions, cause thats when you wheel and deal.

Catching is such a scattershot position that you can never have enough there. And as good as Romine looks to project, you never know. Yanks will draft Sanchez when they come around if he is the best guy on their draft board at the time, not cause he is a C.

Thing I am reading with Sanchez is that defensively he is fantastic, but his bat is a question, and will continue to be. He cant hit breaking balls at all, apparently. But even with the questionable stick, he still ranks as #1 out of the catchers in what appears to be an average catcher class, with obviously no Joe Mauer or Matt Weiters in there.

[Lindsey]

I'm so excited for this year's draft!

LOL @ Balls' 'article'. although, it was an amusing read.

[Jason Giambi]

I like the article. Hopefully Oppenheimer does his job this year.

[$heriff Tom]

Im very excited. This is like a holiday to me. Came a long way since streaming the "conference call" with a pick every 30 seconds for a few hours straight online. And Id be sitting there with my Baseball America draft issues, trying to keep up by marking up who went where.

Tonight is a lot more freeform. I certainly recommend it to anyone with even a mild interest. This first round will have analysis, video packages, all that. After 830, when they go online only, I will head to the computer. Ill have the Yankees on the TV, while I crack with the draft this evening.

Ill be upstairs with the television in front, and the computer to the right. Dana is prepping a hearty pork chop dinner. Beers are in the icebox. Looking good. Ill throw out some fun names during the day, who I would like the Yankees to end up with, and realistically can.

[$heriff Tom]

With all this deep Strasburg hype, and from all accounts injuries will be the only thing that could hold him back - heres some telling numbers. And, at the least, this shows scouts are not necessarily on point...

Since the advent of the draft in 1965, there have been 199 pitchers among the top 10 picks in a draft. Kevin Brown of all people is the all-time leader in wins amongst the group, with a career 211-114 mark, with Gooden at # 2 at 194-112.

Only FOURTEEN of the 199 have won as many as 125 games.

[MSBNYY]

You know how I feel about wins being a telling stat. A lot of that is dependent on offensive production, which a pitcher can't control. Here's a question for your research. Of those 199 pitchers, are any in the HOF?

[$heriff Tom]

Oh, Hell no - the top winner had only 211 wins. There was a cool list of some talented guys who did ok, but not to the hype. They included Ben McDonald, Tim Belcher, Brien Taylor, Floyd Bannister, Todd Van Poppell, Mark Prior, Andy Benes...

One right now who has promise is David Price. But we'll see.

[MSBNYY]

Wasn't McDonald as hyped as Strasburg?

[$heriff Tom]

Yes, he was, but only cause he was heads and shoulders above the other guys in his particular draft. His stuff was nowhere near as good, nor was he as dominant in regards to overpowering the bats.

I read a great story on USA TODAY about McDonald this past week, and he simply never had the stuff Strasburg did. But in that different day and age, he was indeed "super-prospect." Heres the story - great read, find the time.

www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2009-06-02-ben-mcdonald-cover_N.htm

[MSBNYY]

Ok, so I read the article--one question about McDonald:

I get it--he had great stuff, struck out a shitload of hitters, and was a giant. But he also had 4 losses and an ERA of 3.49 against college hitters. I can understand all the reasoning behind some of that hype and liking the guy. I can understand seeing the potential. But at 3.49 and 4 losses, he was hit on occasion. That's not invincible. Comparing Strasburg's numbers, it's night and day. He owns the college level.

[$heriff Tom]

Yeah, from what I got out of McDonald is that he just stood out so much more than other arms in that particular draft. Made him a cant-miss in that regard. But yeah, his stuf never touched Strasburg. My favorite remark about Strasburg out there today is we may not see another one like him for "30 years."

[MSBNYY]

But wouldn't teams noticed that?

Fine--he stood out in that draft. That happens in a weak year. But how could that hype even happen? Strasburg seems different. Without obviously seeing him, the numbers are all I have, and they don't lie.

McDonald was good in college no doubt. But there weren't pitchers with better ERAs? Maybe they weren't as dominant with the Ks, but the guy wasn't so unhittable.

That said, since the Yanks have no shot, I hope Strasburg gets millions and ruins his arm in a bar fight.

[$heriff Tom]

Balls, college ERAs are decieving. Cause who are they coming against? McDonald pitched for an elite program, against the best players in college baseball at the time. Dont fall for ERA and numbers stuff in college. Its all about how they fare against the best. And McDonald did that against tremendous competititon....better competition than Strasburg faces now with San Diego State time and time again.

[MSBNYY]

I get the point to an extent. But we're talking about a guy who is supposed to be the BEST COLLEGE PITCHER EVER (McDonald). A guy like that, who is supposed to be SOOOOOO good that he deserves to be treated like Steve Nebraska, shouldn't have an ERA in the mid 3s against college players.

While the BEST college players could compete with the minors, overall, a superduper star pitcher, who allegedly is almost MLB ready without throwing a pro pitch, should be putting up Strasburg type numbers at the college level. Even if McDonald was facing the top college players every day, I just think he should have been doing better to deserve that kind of hype.

I wouldn't so much fall for a LOW ERA in college, but a higher one is a bit telling.