MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 10, 2008 9:14:55 GMT -5
Back by popular demand, the preseason preview!!!! The quest to get your picture on the top of this page begins on March 24, and the first person to get his team previewed is
MILTON:
Milton became the first person in the history of our draft to run over the clock and have his pick sniped by the next person. Surprisingly, it happened several times to several people, including the esteemed Sheriff Tom. In some cases, they waited until the last second to make their pick, and then picked someone who was already picked.
In round 13, Milton choked. He didn't respond well to his failure to make a pick. At first, he went with Tom Gorzelanny. But as I was writing it down, he said he was joking and went with Chris Capuano.
I was ok with that. It's like making a move in checkers and not taking your hand off the checker. Though I didn't really see the joke there. Gorzelanny outscored Capuano 285 to 105 last year, and if Capuano was one of those guys that was set to jump to a new level, I'm sure he would have been taken a lot earlier.
So basically, Milton choked.
For those who remember, when I look at a team, I base it completely on last year's numbers. Of course, there will be people who were injured in 2007, or were rookies. In that case, I'll make an educated guess.
Sometimes people don't reach their expectations, and sometimes they exceed them dramatically. Suzy's team blew the projections away last year. Laura's team was right on the money. Larry's team was the preseason favorite, and ended up in second. But you can look through the other thread for that. This is about 2008.
The only player on Milton's team that requires any guesswork is Saltalmacchia, who only had 300 ABs last year. Over a full season, assuming he gets a full time job, he would probably have about 500 ABs, and if so, that's about 345 points, using last year as a guide.
Matsui's injury doesn't concern me because last year, he spent time on the DL and produced 540 points. I'll give him the same amount.
4600 hitting points.
In spite of his Capuano gaffe, Milton did draft a decent team. His relief is solid, and his staffed is anchored by Santana, who should do better in pitching friendly Shea.
I'm using the exact same totals from last year, and Milton should have 2328 pitching points.
A total then of 6928.
Not a bad team at all. Last year, that total would have netted him 4th place.
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Post by jwmcc on Mar 10, 2008 9:30:58 GMT -5
Hasn't Tom called you on this before saying that this pre-season projection stuff is bogus?
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 10, 2008 9:47:54 GMT -5
Yes, but history proves otherwise. Time to look at Jose's team. Ryan Doumit is a guy on his team that has been oft injured. Considering his Ken Griffey's disease, I see no reason he will have an injury free season. So I'll generously assign him 250 points.
The other player on Jose's team that needs estimating is Rich Harden, who is also coming back from an injury plagued season. He is completely healthy right now. So assuming he returns to some level of form, 260 points is not unreasonable, and is somewhat expected. It's probably on the low end.
Compared to Milton, Jose has slightly better hitting, assuming things work out. But his pitching is much worse than Milton's.
With that in mind, Jose is capable of getting 4730 hitting points, and 1977 pitching points. That's a 6707 total.
That would have got him in the 6th-8th place range last year.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 10, 2008 10:04:00 GMT -5
Time to look at our defending champ, Suzy. Last year, her team exceeded expectations by a LOT. She made some great pickups during the year and managed her team well
The real questions on Suzy's team right now are Phil Hughes and Clay Buchholz. Both are top tier prospects that could send Suzy to the first repeat. But how many innings are either of them expected to throw? And no matter how good they are, they should experience some level of growing pains.
The plus side is that they both play on teams good enough to get them decent win totals. Factoring in expected limits on innings, I am going to give each of them 275 points.
If that happens, Suzy has a very good pitching staff, and has a preseason pitching total of 2392.
As it stands now, her hitting projects at 4656, which has her at 7048 predicted points, good enough for third place last year. Given Suzy's history though, exceeding expectations may be in her future.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 10, 2008 11:47:48 GMT -5
Looking over Pops' team...
Pops has 2 people that need predicting--Josh Fields & Jacoby Ellsbury. Both are solid players that should be able to product 500 points in a full season, assuming they produce at the level of last year. Fields produced 325 points in 373 ABs. Give him 550 ABs, and that could mean 455 points. So I'll go with that.
Ellsbury should get the starting job, and with it, those SBs should get him 500 points. He should actually do better than that, but I'll be conservative.
Pops' team is very pitching heavy--meaning with one exception, he doesn't have any hitting backups. Ben Sheets, if he stays healthy, should net him 350 points. He has the best pitching staff of the teams I've covered so far, projecting at 2561 points.
4637 hitting points, for a total of 7198. Best team so far, but plenty to go. That total would have netted him second place last year. Good work by Pops.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 10, 2008 12:46:33 GMT -5
NEIL:
Looking over Neil's team, I have to be somewhat generous in my predictions. I think he has a lot of people coming off career years, and because of that, I don't think they will produce as well in 2008. I'm actually going to cut a few people's numbers down.
For example, Brandon Webb scored 515 last year. Why? 4 complete games, 2 for shutouts. What are the odds of him doing that again this year? Because of that, I'm dropping his numbers to an extremely generous 450.
Gil Meche stinks. The guy had a career year last year and was still 9-13. Yet I doubt his RECORD will get any worse. I'll leave him at 250.
Buehrle will be dropped to 280 because he had a no hitter, and the preseason ranks are factoring that in.
With hitting, I didn't like Neil's choice of Pujols with the number 2 pick overall--at least not this year. He's coming off a bad year and there were better choices out there. If you are going to take a strong position like 1B with the #2 pick, that 1B needs to be one of the top 2 producers in all of baseball. I think Neil would have been better off with a tougher position, like Utley at 2B, or Hanley Ramirez at SS or David Wright at 3B.
I think that he should be able to produce like last year, barring a major injury.
But Jorge is someone I'm going to drop to 450 points. I think he had a fluke year and if he repeats it, it's only a matter of time before he gets caught for being on the juice.
Neil has a 2306 pitching point projection.
He has a 4271 hitting projection for a total of 6577. That total would have had Neil in 10th last year.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 10, 2008 12:50:28 GMT -5
With hitting, I didn't like Neil's choice of Pujols with the number 2 pick overall--at least not this year. He's coming off a bad year and there were better choices out there
Is that all that concerns you, his "bad year?"
There is the little matter of the nagging injury...
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 10, 2008 12:57:48 GMT -5
I'm aware of it, but wasn't sure if anyone wanted me to talk about a specific player's health woes. He has had that injury for awhile now, and played all last year with it. That's why I think it's reasonable he will produce like last year. But I would be very surprised if he can return to previous levels.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 11, 2008 6:15:45 GMT -5
Time for one of the more anticipated previews--Tom's team. I guess if you had to describe Tom's strategy in 2008, it would be to load up on pitching depth and hope that he could pick some decent hitting up late. It's not the worst idea in the world, especially when Tom has been weak in pitching in past seasons.
Pitching is tricky in fantasy, and Tom's pitchers have not been consistent year in year out guys. He has two guys, Beckett and Lackey, coming off career years. They are both very good pitchers, but can they both repeat their Cy Young level performances? I doubt it, and I think combined, they are going to produce a good 100 points less than last year. Beckett already shut himself down with back spasms. If we're lucky, he will have a shit year and take Boston's repeat hopes on the DL with him, but assuming he's ok, I'm expecting at least a 50 point drop. And I will have to see Lackey repeat 2007 to believe it. But even factoring in that 100 point drop, both those guys should yield good results for Tom, barring injury.
Harang is a very good pitcher to have on your staff. The high strikeout total helps him be one of the more productive pitchers in the league, even though he had 11 losses. I can't see him being too far off his 2007 total, and if he can cut those losses down, he could even do better.
If Tom is going to lose 100 points on Beckett and Lackey, I think he will gain them back with Matt Cain. I realize that the Giants aren't exactly a great team, but Cain was a 200 inning pitcher that was 7-16. I think that's going to be tough to repeat. Oswalt should produce the same totals at minimum and is also capable of better. So in the end, barring some injuries or something unexpected, Tom's pitching should be at or near 2007 levels.
Hitting may also be a wash for Tom in terms of adjustments. Ramon Hernandez, if he stays healthy, should net Tom another 100 points. But I do not believe in Carlos Pena. The guy had one good year, and needs another one to prove he's not a fluke. I don't believe this guy is a 46 HR/ 120 RBI guy. And I don't believe the guy is going to produce 625 fantasy points again. He can have a solid year, and produce 500 points.
Tom doesn't have a very good backup for Pena, but I do think he has some solid trade bait on his bench, which is pretty good too.
Brad Wilkerson's an interesting utility guy for Tom. I'm going to bump his totals to 450 points. I don't think Wilkerson alone will do that, but Tom has some good people on his bench, and should be able to get kind of production out of that spot, unless he's an idiot.
So Tom's pitching projects at 2839 points. His hitting projects at 4468 for a whopping 7307 points. This projection was good enough to be in 2nd place last year.
Last year, it was hitting that carried Tom to 3rd place. This year, his pitching is his strength. Pitching is hardest to predict and hitters are more stable and better point producers in this league, so things really have to break Tom's way, but he definitely drafted a pitching staff that can outshine the rest of the league. It's easily the best staff of the teams I've looked at so far. I would rather be hitting heavy in this league with the same numbers, but in the end, a point is a point. Tom is the only original member of this league not to have a championship. He is the San Diego Padres of this league. He's been around a long time, but never won the big one.
This could be his best shot ever. I have more teams to look at, so I can't declare him the preseason favorite yet. But so far, he is.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 11, 2008 7:20:50 GMT -5
Couple of things. I did not go in with that strategy at all, I basically decided it at the draft table as the picks went on, and pitching was left on the board. I was happy to back up Beckett with Lackey, and then when I saw Oswalt still sitting there next time, I had to do it. And at that point I decided, with some very good pitching still on the board, I should probably grab another one. While I went by projections and hopes of luck around a couple of spots on the diamond, I have some stalwarts including Carl Crawford and Jimmy Rollins.
Look it up, folks - at the end of the day, going by most sites ratings and predictions, I have 5 of the top 17 or so starting pitchers in fantasy, in regards to 2008 projection, those being Beckett, Lackey, Oswalt, Harang, and Cain. I am also happy to have the ever-improving and I feel ready to break out Zach Greinke just behind, and rolled dice with Mark Mulder on a very late pick.
Snicker if you want, but putting those guys up reguarly instead of the likes of David Busch and Adam Eaton is going to be a lot of fun.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 11, 2008 7:24:49 GMT -5
Cain is in the top 17? I can see the other 4, and I definitely think that Cain will have a better year than last year, but that's a pretty high ranking for him.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 11, 2008 7:40:46 GMT -5
Forget the wins and losses. You know how many games his bullpen blew for him? Look at ERA, hits to innings, strikeouts to walks. Anyone with any baseball acumen recognizes this guy as one of the more talented arms in the game.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 11, 2008 7:43:55 GMT -5
I definitely am forgetting wins and losses. But top 17 is a stretch. He still plays on a team with little offense. He shouldn't go 7-16 again, but top 17 is a lot to ask.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 11, 2008 8:10:06 GMT -5
Well, instead of asking why dont you go check all of the projection sites and see where you find the guy? Trust me, I was well prepared going in. Thanks for your imput though!
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 11, 2008 8:24:50 GMT -5
I'm not convinced.
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Mar 11, 2008 9:05:50 GMT -5
and hes been saying the same shit about cain year in and year out. hes not progressing all that well tom. top 17 my fucking ass. your pitching is hot. but dont go overboard.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 11, 2008 9:20:33 GMT -5
Again, check projections. But lets forget him for a second, and we'll just go with "4 of my starters are among the top 16 projection-wise." Pretty damn good for one team to hoard all that.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 11, 2008 9:22:07 GMT -5
You're paying for that with weaker hitting. But projection-wise, it looks like it will work out. Should be interesting to see if you remain the preseason favorite. Last year's preseason favorite came in second, so it's a good place to be.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 11, 2008 9:27:47 GMT -5
While my hitting is not lock-solid on paper, if players meet their recent projections its middle of the road at worst. I have some fantasy gems in there, too. And one of my stronger suits has been making moves over the course of the season to improve my standing. I'll be fine, I like my team more than I liked any team I had in the last 3 years, and I have a 2nd and a 3rd to my credit within that time.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 11, 2008 9:51:19 GMT -5
Turning the attention to EVAN's team, he seems to be fairly well balanced.
Randy Johnson is in his rotation, and I would be surprised to see him put up a full season's worth of numbers. He can still strike people out, but he's an old man. That said, Gorzelanny is on his bench, and he can put up 285 points, and that's the number I will use for Johnson.
Lincecum should do better with that extra 50 innings under his belt, and despite playing on the Giants, should be able to muster at least 330 points. I'm not going to up Rickie Weeks' numbers though, because he hasn't played more than 118 games in a season in his career.
Of course, if he does play a full season, that only means good things for the ignorant one.
Arroyo is a bit like Matt Cain in that he had an obscenely bad record last year, and probably won't do that again, so I will give him 300 points.
Evan's hitting projects at 4786 points. His pitching comes in at 2370. That's a total of 7156, but with Evan, there are a lot of question marks so it may be less than that.
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Post by jwmcc on Mar 11, 2008 9:53:27 GMT -5
Wow I'm glad you're not a scientist..
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 11, 2008 9:56:28 GMT -5
Wow I'm glad you're not a scientist..
I wish he was....maybe today he would be busy experimenting on lab rats or getting his white coat laundered, and wouldnt be on the board with his sketchy predictions.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 11, 2008 9:57:36 GMT -5
They were pretty good last year. I was ridiculously accurate with Larry. And Laura was able to know 6 months in advance that she would be retired.
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Mar 11, 2008 10:27:01 GMT -5
Again, check projections. But lets forget him for a second, and we'll just go with "4 of my starters are among the top 16 projection-wise." Pretty damn good for one team to hoard all that. sure. im hoping you wont be able to hit your way out of a paper bag. which im sure will be the case. time will tell buddy.
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Mar 11, 2008 13:43:34 GMT -5
wow. suzys team is so good. lets go balls. get the rest of them up here already.
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Post by area51 on Mar 11, 2008 14:56:46 GMT -5
Balls, when my team read your review they weren't too happy and after a team meeting we all agreeed that back in black 2 is going to score around 7400 points, actually it will be 7414.33 to be exact. So Justin enjoy it, this was the last draft that you could say "only 2 time champion".... is all over ......
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Mar 11, 2008 15:08:14 GMT -5
Balls, when my team read your review they weren't too happy and after a team meeting we all agreeed that back in black 2 is going to score around 7400 points, actually it will be 7414.33 to be exact. So Justin enjoy it, this was the last draft that you could say "only 2 time champion".... is all over ...... pipe down over there jose. and while we are talking about pipes. you better be ready with a nice $20 bag of haze for me at the next draft.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 11, 2008 15:20:24 GMT -5
Jose, you're selling yourself a bit short. Aren't you getting tired of toting gifts to the draft, cause you keep finishing behind all of us?
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Post by area51 on Mar 11, 2008 17:35:46 GMT -5
Tom at least I WAS THE CHAMPION OF YOUR LEAGUE for 1 year. I remember I finished ahead of you (and everyone else for that matter) ..... now who says miracles only happen once... the Bosox won twice in the last 4 years....
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Post by area51 on Mar 11, 2008 17:37:12 GMT -5
And con't forget the bottle you won is the one I won from you the year before.....now is my turn
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