MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 11, 2008 17:42:33 GMT -5
Personally, I enjoy when Jose talks trash. The bottom line is that his picture is on the board.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 12, 2008 6:39:29 GMT -5
Next up--CAPONE.
Capone has three very good CFs. That means if he plays his cards right, he might be able to make a trade that improves his team in one of his weaker positions, like SS or LF, or SP. He doesn't seem to have the strongest team but it is fairly balanced.
Peavy was outstanding next year, and Capone will rely heavily on him to repeat his 2007 performance. I don't know if that is going to happen. 575 is a LOT of points for a starting pitcher. So I'm going to dump it to 500.
Billingsley is a good stikeout pitcher, and if he gets to 200 innings this year, he should be good for at least 375 points.
Capone is also going to need ARod to come through too. He had 799 points last year. Could he seriously have that kind of performance again? I doubt it. 700 points would be an outstanding year though, and he is capable of that.
As a Yankees fan, I hope ARod does as well as last year, but it's not likely.
Jack Cust could be interesting with another 100 ABs. He doesn't hit for a high average, but that's not one of our categories. In 395 ABs, he hit over 20 HRs, and drove in 82. It's not out of the question he could get another 5 HRs and 25 RBI with another 100 or so ABs. So 500 points is not out of the question.
Going with that, Capone has a consistent and nice hitting team, with 4807 points.
I'm not a big fan of his starting staff. It's nowhere near as good as Tom's. Matt Cain would be Capone's #3 starter where he is Tom's #5 by far.
Giving Peavy the 500 points, which may be high despite last year, and bumping Billingsley to 375, Capone has 2405 pitching points in the projection.
Team total: 7212, but a LOT has to break his way.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 12, 2008 6:42:21 GMT -5
What's the story with Brett Myers? Is he a starter or a reliever? Even Yahoo ranks him as both. That could pose some problems for Larry, depending on how he uses him.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 12, 2008 7:17:32 GMT -5
Jack Cust could be interesting with another 100 ABs. He doesn't hit for a high average, but that's not one of our categories. In 395 ABs, he hit over 20 HRs, and drove in 82. It's not out of the question he could get another 5 HRs and 25 RBI with another 100 or so ABs. So 500 points is not out of the question.
No way Jack Cust gets 500 points. Come on, now.
Did Capone forget you needed to fill RF, CF, and LF? Iam sure he did not draft 3 CFs cause they were "the best players available" and to use as trade bait.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 12, 2008 7:33:01 GMT -5
It's a rough estimation in the light most favorable to Capone. In 395 ABs, the guy got 439 points. I don't think 500 is out of the question if he has another 100-150 ABs. Unless you believe he could become a bench player.
Capone didn't forget you need 3 positions. He's solid in RF. Alex Rios and Nick Markakis are solid fantasy producers. CF is just where he has his strongest depth.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 12, 2008 7:54:29 GMT -5
Cust won't be playing every day. But thats Capone's problem, not ours.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 12, 2008 7:56:39 GMT -5
If that's the case, then you can lop at least 75-100 points off his totals. Still, Capone's depth at CF should enable him to find a trading partner.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 12, 2008 8:15:46 GMT -5
Ok, but who doesn't have a valid centerfielder? Who is even shopping for one?
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Mar 12, 2008 8:18:44 GMT -5
What's the story with Brett Myers? Is he a starter or a reliever? Even Yahoo ranks him as both. That could pose some problems for Larry, depending on how he uses him. last i heard he was going to be a starter this year. flash gordon will be the closer until lidge gets back from injury. |
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 12, 2008 8:19:42 GMT -5
There are people out there that are weak in that position, but I don't think it's fair for me to suggest trade partners and make up potential deals.
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Mar 12, 2008 8:20:01 GMT -5
Ok, but who doesn't have a valid centerfielder? Who is even shopping for one? i might be. between vernon wells and rocco baldelli, i might be in trouble there. baldelli forget about. his hamstrings are made of paper. but by all accounts, toronto is fully expecting big production out of a healthy vernon wells this year. if not. hi capone! |
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 12, 2008 11:57:04 GMT -5
Turning to John's team...
John has been the biggest fantasy disappointment of all time, bar none. His baseball acumen has always been solid. He works for Elias, which means he has access to and understanding of stats that no one else has. If I want to know how many times Bernie Williams ate a bag of Combos in 2003, John would be able to look that up.
Yet John is in his 3rd year in the league now, and has never finished higher than TENTH! John was the first person in the history of this league to be relegated.
I'm not big on his catcher, Mike Napoli, who seems to put up similar point totals every year. Howie Kendrick is someone I'll bump up to 375 points. If he plays a full season, there's no reason he can't do that.
John currently has Milledge in his utility spot. Hard to predict what Milledge will do, but given the ease in replacing that spot in the lineup, John would have to be pretty stupid to not get at least 450 points from that spot. I don't think John is stupid, so I'll give him Mike Cuddyer's 460.
If John's 2 relievers keep the closer jobs for a full season, they are good for 250-275 points each, maybe even more. So call it 275 each.
John's pitching isn't that great, forecasting at 2283 points. His hitting comes in at 4417 for a total of 6700. Plenty of moves to be made, and there are pitchers that can do better, but it doesn't project as a top tier team. John will need a full season out of Mike Napoli and some people to do better than 2007 to help him out. Either that, or John will have to make some brilliant moves. We shall see.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 12, 2008 12:29:32 GMT -5
Balls, when are you going to finish this up, at the end of the season? Whats taking you so long.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 12, 2008 12:38:31 GMT -5
Three people to go, and one hasn't put a lineup in. Larry, Justin & Knoblauch are left.
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Mar 12, 2008 13:02:04 GMT -5
yea, hurry up.
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Post by nobeernofun on Mar 12, 2008 13:13:17 GMT -5
That pic. of X Gov. Spitzer's face looks like Sheriff Tom's after some of his pics @ the draft. LOL
Having the 7th pick is hard as u have to think if your player will still be there when your pick comes back around. I had to take Miguel Cabrera with the 7th pick as he was the best player left at the time. Russell Martin was a player I wanted going in but did I draft him to soon ? I did not see him coming back to me. I also wanted B.J. Upton for 2b but once he went I had to go for Chone Figgins 4 2b. I may get lucky & get Jon Lester to start the ball rolling it 2008 with 2 or 3 starts in the first week of play ? Josh Beckett's not ready for the trip to the land of Sushi & maybe not even the land of Chowder.
Keep up the good work there Ball's
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 12, 2008 13:19:20 GMT -5
Josh Beckett's not ready for the trip to the land of Sushi & maybe not even the land of Chowder.
That's ok, I only have four other #1 starters to pad my rotation going in.
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Mar 12, 2008 13:24:18 GMT -5
Josh Beckett's not ready for the trip to the land of Sushi & maybe not even the land of Chowder. That's ok, I only have four other #1 starters to pad my rotation going in. you and me both!  |
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Post by nobeernofun on Mar 12, 2008 13:41:07 GMT -5
Looks like the Wolfetones have 5 pitchers in Yahoo' top 35 the high hard ones have 5 in the top 30. that's looks parity close in my book. I have better back up's too. in Lester , Shaun Marcum & Ubaldo Jiménez. 4 when Ben Sheets go's down.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 12, 2008 13:44:58 GMT -5
that's looks parity close in my book.
Keep telling yourself that.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 12, 2008 14:06:10 GMT -5
Moving on to LARRY....
Larry has a solid hitting team, and there really isn't any need to make adjustments. They are what they are. If Larry is lucky, Vernon Wells will return to form and net him an extra 100 points from my totals.
But his pitching is rough. He has a lot of brittle guys and question marks making his prediction a gigantic crapshoot--more so than the others I've looked at so far. Start with Liriano--coming off TJ surgery. He needs a full season of pitching to get his arm back to normal, so it's not like he'll produce at pre-injury levels.
I read he has an innings limitation as well. So I wouldn't give him more than 250 points at best in that spot. Brett Myers is also an enigma. He starts and relieves and is even ranked in both categories on Yahoo. I am not going to overresearch that, but if he switches, this will screw Larry up because his lineup could end up illegal. Complicating things further is Troy Percival, who hasn't been a full time closer since 2005. Very hard to project those point totals.
Larry does have Kerry Wood as an option should he be a closer, but Larry's staff does not look that strong and is VERY tough to predict. Larry should be able to adapt though. He has Pedro on his bench, and Pedro, if healthy, should be a 300 plus point pitcher. But he's not in Larry's lineup to start, so he isn't factored in.
I'm only going to assign Percival 200 points, but that's on the low side and assumes Larry won't adjust. Adjusting is actually a strength for Larry so I think he has a good shot of beating the numbers I come up with now.
Larry's top two guys are Carmona and Bedard, both of whom are solid pitchers and for Larry's sake, need to repeat their 2007 performances.
Larry's pitching projects at 2142 points. His hitting comes in at 4424. A total of 6566. Larry's management skills will have to shine here, and hopefully for his sake, I'm undervaluing his risks. His bench does have the ability to make him exceed that by a lot.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 12, 2008 14:08:09 GMT -5
We will know by Opening Day where Myers is pitching out of. Larry, dont make the mistake and put him in the wrong spot.
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Mar 12, 2008 14:11:50 GMT -5
wow. i had a bad draft. i didnt think i had that bad of a draft though.
about my pitching. myers is throwing the ball exceeding well and is fully expected to be a dominant starter. i have joba, who come june will probably be a top notch starter. i admit, i need to really piece things together, but i have a lot of capable brittle players on this team. just dont all get hurt at the same time please!
oh, and my offense is SURE to outperform last year. a lot of my hitters had subpar years last year and are expected to easily outperform last season. boy, you are gonna sleep on me. huh. ok. then.
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Mar 12, 2008 14:13:00 GMT -5
We will know by Opening Day where Myers is pitching out of. Larry, dont make the mistake and put him in the wrong spot. he is going to start. gordon is the temporary closer. |
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 12, 2008 14:15:33 GMT -5
No doubt, but it's very hard to rely on THAT many people overshooting their previous totals. It also makes your team arguably the toughest to predict. I think you took Liriano a year too early, and I rated him accordingly. He could suddenly return to form and blow the numbers away. Pedro is also someone that likely will crack your rotation and get you better numbers.
I hope Joba does dominate.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 12, 2008 14:18:50 GMT -5
Larry, I know what Myers is doing. He is my favorite non-Yankee pitcher in baseball. I am telling YOU to keep an eye.
Also, he is a fine pitcher, but never met his expectations and is prone to losing it on the mound. Trust me, I have had enough of him on my fantasy teams to where I am kind of happy, now that he is not closing, that he is no longer my problem.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 13, 2008 6:36:40 GMT -5
With the 11th team preview, it's time to look at Justin's team....
One of the strongest positions in terms of points is 1B. There are a lot of good hitting 1Bs out there, so most teams get a good one. With Joey Votto, I think Justin put himself a good 150 points in the hole and will have to make up those points at other positions. Votto is hard to predict, but Yahoo ranks him at or near Ty Wigginton and Conor Jackson when it comes to ability. For that reason, I used those guys as a guide and am giving Votto 400 points.
His 2007 sample actually has a point an at bat, meaning that if he keeps that pace, he will have 550 points. But until he does something like that, he hasn't.
Justin however is very strong at some weaker positions, with Dan Uggla at 2B and David Wright at 3B. He's weak at the RF position though. He does have a few guys on his bench that might improve his situation should Hermida not satisfy him.
Pitching is also a bit tough to predict. Dontrelle "whatchoo talkin' 'bout" Willis is an interesting choice. Will the new surroundings help? Or is he done? The Detroit lineup should give him more wins at minimum. But Willis is another one that will just have to prove it. He's on a better team. If you make that 10-15 and turn it into 15-10, it's not unreasonable to give him 220 points.
Gallardo is someone who in theory can do better, but at this point, going above 275 points might be a lot to ask of him.
I think his bullpen should be a strength for him, but he really needs Putz to pitch like last year.
As his lineup currently stands, Justin projects at 4306 hitting points.
The pitching comes in at 2464, for a total of 6770. Not great, but I believe he'll make some moves to come in at a higher score than that.
That'll do it until Knoblauch puts in a lineup. He knows about it, but somehow I think he's going to miss Opening Day.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 14, 2008 6:54:00 GMT -5
And with the final preseason analysis, heeeeeere's KNOBLAUCH....
Knoblauch has some question marks, but I think he had a better draft than in years past.
He chose to go with experience over higher rank at the catcher spot, starting Pudge over Soto. One has to figure that if Soto does outproduce Pudge, that will change.
Josh Hamilton is ranked near Andruw Jones when it comes to production--just below. So I'll assign him 475 points. It should be a little less than that, but at the same time, the guy was getting a point per at bat last year. If he produces like that over a full season, he'll exceed that projection easily.
I'm going to assign Knoblauch 500 points in the utility spot. Even if Billy Butler can't do that, Knoblauch's bench can. It's just a question of making the right adjustments in the season. Then again, this is Knoblauch, so maybe I should lower that to 475. Screw it, I'll give him the 500.
I think Knoblauch may need to make a trade for a good starting pitcher. Tom is certainly one to talk to about it, as both teams have strengths that could help the other. The real question is if the numbers work out for both teams--something both would have to look at.
I don't like Cliff Lee at one of Knoblauch's top 5. But I can't see Knoblauch not getting 200 points out of that 5th starter spot, so for now, that's what I'll assign him.
Knoblauch also has Tom Gordon as his second closer. It's hard to predict whether Gordon will have that role all year. The Phillies have Lidge and if they both suck, Brett Myers could close again.
Knoblauch's closer situation also looks weak on the bench, so barring a trade, I'm only going to give Knoblauch 175 points in that second spot. That's on the low end, but I don't trust Gordon.
I will add 35 points to Chris Young, becase I think if he pitches another 30 innings, which is hardly unreasonable, he can do that.
So at 2148 predicted points, Knoblauch has one of the worst pitching staffs in the league.
Hit hitting is better, coming in at 4764. A total of 6912 points. That's not bad, and won't get him relegated, but he's going to have to improve his pitching if he wants to contend for the top spot.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 14, 2008 10:35:24 GMT -5
Knoblauch's team sucks. And I have no interest in doing any business with him. And my pitching is not for sale.
So enough of the semantics already, Balls. Who is the team to beat this year?
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Mar 14, 2008 10:52:40 GMT -5
seriously. lets go. tie a bow on this one already. im leaving for the weekend pretty soon. whats the hold up???
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