MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 14, 2008 11:48:49 GMT -5
Well, based on what I've seen, Tom is the preseason favorite. Not by THAT much, but he is. The battle for the basement should be between Larry and Neil, though if Vernon Wells makes a true return to form, Neil will be joining the Hall of Shame. A lot depends on the relatively inconsistent guys. Guys who are poised to jump or fall. Guys who were injured in the past and coming back. Obviously, the more consistent your players are, the easier they are to predict. Injuries will obviously impact things as well.
But Tom is absolutely the preaseason favorite going in. Last year's preseason favorite came in second, and it took a record setting year for him to be toppled.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 14, 2008 11:50:04 GMT -5
Thank you. Thought so. That should make the haters happy.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 14, 2008 11:53:11 GMT -5
And this is a first. I don't remember believing that in the past.
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Post by grover on Mar 14, 2008 12:23:32 GMT -5
I'm shocked at Larry's draft. He has always been one of the stronger drafters of the league.
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Mar 14, 2008 12:31:16 GMT -5
grover. you really cant read into msb's projections. while my team is on the brittle side, its still strong. i knew msb would sleep on my team. and i love it.
first off, vernon wells' numbers were through the floor last year. shoulder injury all year. hes healthy now. regular fantasy monster paul konerkos numbers way down last year. should see a spike there too. same with manny. thats 3 big pieces who i feel are no brainers for better seasons. but hitting aint even where his projections are fucked up.
pitching. liriano. msb doesnt think he will be effective until next year. you realize he had tj surgery over 16 months ago. correct? wait until you see what he does. brett myers. msb still doesnt know if he is giving me closer points for him. what a doof. the guy is a starter. and joba. does balls take into account the 2nd half of the season i will have joba starting games. doesnt throw me any points there. i have both arizona closers handcuffed. they are both stellar. did you adjust corpases numbers since last year he wasnt in the closer role for a full year? percival will be the dray closer through thick and thin. cause they have NO ONE. thats vital. msb gave me some malarky numbers on that too. you wait. you are gonna eat this prediction.
congrats tom. your pitching is stellar. and if you get production out of your offensive risks, those question marks, i expect to see you in the money with me and suzy again. suzys team is the shit. mine will surprise. and tom is money. see you guys in the winners circle. seee the rest of you losers at the next draft.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 14, 2008 12:51:29 GMT -5
Larry--you do realize that it takes a year of actual PITCHING to build your arm up right after TJ surgery, correct? For your sake, hope for Liriano, but he's NOT money in the bank.
I absolutely don't know where Myers will be. But I bet neither do the Phils, which is why his prediction is lower. And no, I will not take into account the second half because anything can happen. These predictions come from your opening day lineup only. I hope Joba produces enough to carry your team. I hope he kicks ass. But he's a nonfactor right now in preseason.
I think you're right about Corpas. He's probably good for 300 points. He's not a K/IP pitcher, and Mariano got 300 points. I can't see him doing much better than that.
Last year, Suzy's prediction was the worst. Everything she touched turned to gold. A LOT of players exceeded projections. I think Larry needs the same thing. It could happen.
Larry is also one of the best managers in the league, and that alone should help him in the standings. But that factor is one of faith, not numbers.
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Post by yanxchick on Mar 14, 2008 12:56:40 GMT -5
Exceeded your expectations.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 14, 2008 13:04:40 GMT -5
No doubt. But not just mine--the previous year's. Perfect example of that is Peavy, who jumped 230 points from his previous year. Sabbathia jumped 153. That's 383 points alone.
Peavy won 19 games for the Padres. He never won more than 15. He set career highs in IP, and Ks--two very important stats in this league. Sabathia also never pitched at that level before.
Those were two gigantic pluses. That happens.
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Mar 14, 2008 13:38:15 GMT -5
balls is a tool.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 14, 2008 13:41:11 GMT -5
This tool had your team pegged pretty close last year.
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Mar 14, 2008 14:11:36 GMT -5
and as close as you might have been last year, you are so far off the mark this year its not even funny.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 14, 2008 14:13:01 GMT -5
Hit him!
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 14, 2008 14:33:10 GMT -5
For your sake Larry, hopefully. Your team was one of the tougher ones because you took a LOT of risks. There's a LOT of potential for payoff, which I acknowledged.
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Mar 14, 2008 15:03:00 GMT -5
ok. but i remember you awarding teams with a good bench extra points because if the manager made half good moves that would net them extra points. well.....if liriano and myers are going to be such stiffs, dont you think i will put in joba and net extra points?
what am i fighting about. your predictions have no base anyway. cant wait to prove you wrong.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 14, 2008 15:23:44 GMT -5
I do. I may have to look at your team again on Monday from scratch. Problem is I think your bench has some risk too. I think you may have the MOST number of risks of any team, and where I have you is probably the WORST you will do. The other teams have a lot of consistent players that made them easier to predict. You're definitely a wild card.
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Post by IronHorse4 on Mar 14, 2008 19:33:53 GMT -5
My draft was not great, but not awful. I do think Willis will be better, simply because he's on a winning team and he's back throwing to Ivan Rodriguez.
Joey Votto is a big wild card. Taking a chance on him, but Ryan Garko is a year older, and he will be fine there in that Indians lineup if/when I need him.
Wondering if Jhonny Peralta was being considered in the projections, since I didn't have him in there initially but have gone and put him in.
Soriano will have a better year after being in Chicago for a year. If he doesn't, I will pee on his head from the LF bleachers.
My team will exceed projections this year.
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Post by nobeernofun on Mar 14, 2008 22:51:58 GMT -5
Good job with the preseason analyzing of teams once again Balls. always gets the ball rolling. One more thing you have to figure that some weeks those of us who can will be juggling our pitching to get 2 starts in a week out of starters. I just have to hope that the Red Sox go with Jacoby Ellsbury. I don't see why not. P.S. I hope they trade Coco. Oh & I just took a look @ all of are yahoo fantasy wining % with me leasing the pack @ 73%. "I have both Arizona closers handcuffed" Larry, Brandon Lyon is going to close 4 the Dbacks & he is on my bench ?
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 15, 2008 8:20:43 GMT -5
When did you put Peralta in? I see you have changed some things. I'll look at you and Larry again, though I don't know if a hitting change will make THAT much of a difference--at least in this style of projecting.
Pops, there's no way to account for moves people make to manipulate pitching. Stuff like that though sometimes backfires, so it evens out.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 15, 2008 13:14:37 GMT -5
Well, here you go....already I am being hammered with woes. Aside from Becketts nagging back, now this...
TEMPE, Ariz. -- Angels ace John Lackey has been diagnosed with a strained right triceps after an examination on Friday by Dr. Lewis Yocum, team orthopedist. He will be shut down without baseball activities for three to four weeks, at which time he'll be reevaluated. Lackey, the reigning American League ERA champion and an All-Star for the first time in 2007, pitched 1 2/3 innings on Monday and said he felt fine afterward. But the elbow became sore the following day, and a bullpen session on Wednesday did not go well, he said.
A Magnet Resonance Imaging examination taken at Biltmore Imaging on Friday confirmed the club's diagnosis of a triceps strain. This was in a different location than a forearm ailment that had caused Lackey to get a late start in his spring workouts.
The Angels' initial response is that they will look internally to replace Lackey and Kelvim Escobar, who has not begun throwing after experiencing shoulder inflammation. Escobar is expected to begin throwing soon, and his return is projected in May -- perhaps around the same time as Lackey.
The two combined last season to win 37 games, 19 by Lackey. Dustin Moseley, a spot starter last season, figures to get the first try for Lackey's rotation spot. Talented young right-handers Nick Adenhart and Nick Green also are in the picture, Angels manager Mike Scioscia said.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 15, 2008 13:57:38 GMT -5
That's the tough part about building your strength on pitching--pitchers are far less consistent. But you do have some depth to deal with some of these.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 15, 2008 14:02:21 GMT -5
No doubt, I am by no means crushed at this point. I do, however, have to shake my head in a fit of flabbergast. Carl Crawford being a "late scratch" did not fill me with glee, either.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 15, 2008 18:53:02 GMT -5
You could be cursed.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 16, 2008 17:18:04 GMT -5
And now Francouer is hit in the face with a pitch. Oh, joy!
I am still predicting me for first.
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Post by area51 on Mar 17, 2008 15:01:27 GMT -5
This is way off .... first Tom is going to finish 5th and like it, Justin will finish 8th, Milton will finish 7th and Larry I'm not sure if 3rd or 4th.... well all of that won't matter because I will join Justin as the other 2 time champion and win a few more bottles for my bar..... and if I lose (well they have a discount when you buy 12 bottles at a time)...
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