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Post by grover on Mar 25, 2007 11:40:43 GMT -5
Hey Balls, when you finish putting the stuff on Yahoo, post the first three rounds or so.
Any goofy moves during draft day?
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 25, 2007 12:29:32 GMT -5
Chone Figgins going as high as he did was a hoot. Blame Laura for that one.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 25, 2007 12:48:26 GMT -5
Some thoughts, just looking at the early rounds.
Laura, who had the #1 pick, took the injured Chone Figgins with the first pick in the third round (25th pick overall). No one can say anything about her taking Pujols #1. Pretty much everyone does that with the overall #1.
I don't know if Joe Nathan in the second round was a great pick for her. Though closers are important, I think taking a closer that early, when some major talent is still available, is a mistake. Closers are fairly risky every year, and even with the long wait, a LOT of closers would have been available when the draft came back to her. She passed up on Oswalt, Texeira, Vernon Wells, Peavy, & Tejada to name a few. JJ Putz AND Billy Wagner were both available when the draft came back to her. Rivera and FRod were the only closers picked before the draft returned to her, and I think she pulled the trigger a little early. In this league, closers are the least valuable. Probably should have filled other positions first.
Knoblauch took Chris Carpenter with the 9th overall pick. While considered the second best starter, I felt that he would have been around when the draft got back to him. I think that the drop is fairly significant between Santana, who rightfully went third, and Carpenter, and Knoblauch should have gone with a hitter. 3B is a tough position to fill, and Knoblauch passed over both Cabrera (twice) and Wright.
He also took Hanley Ramirez in the second round, ahead of Jeter and Tejada. He also passed on Miguel Cabrera & Manny Ramirez. I think that at that stage of the draft, with so much out there, after taking Carpenter, he should have gone with the best producing hitter he could find, no matter what position. I don't think Hanley Ramirez will be that hitter.
Jose didn't make any mistakes in the early rounds, getting Santana, Jeter, and Oswalt. He has 2 out of the top 3 starters, and one of the most consistent top SS's in baseball. He made some questionable moves later though, taking both Clemens AND Pedro. Will those guys really add THAT much to his team in the second half (or final third)? Hard to say.
Larry starts off with ARod, Mauer and Abreu. Can't really complain too much about those early picks, thoguh maybe he should have grabbed Oswalt with that third round pick. He might have some pitching problems. Based on 2006 fantasy points, Larry's starting pitching is pretty weak. His best hope on that front is Jared Weaver, and the extra 80 or so innings he's going to pitch this season.
So no bonehead moves for Larry in the early rounds, except questioning his decision not to go for more pitching. His hitting looks damn good.
Justin also had a solid early draft, going for Soriano, Halladay and Hafner. Can't really argue much of it, except that Hafner, at least for now, is only a utility guy. There were a few available people that had more 2006 points, but the difference isn't that high, and personal preference is a factor. Can't really complain about Justin's early picks.
Evan also started strong, going with Reyes (last year's 5th best fantasy hitter), Berkman (9th best offensive player), and Texeira (23rd best). Not bad for 3 rounds. But like Larry, Evan's going to have serious pitching issues.
Milton, with the 6th pick, went with Utley, Bay and Vernon Wells. I'm also not impressed with Milton's pitching, based on 2006 fantasy stats.
Next is Tom. He went with Carl Crawford, Miguel Cabrera and Jimmy Rollins. With the 6th overall pick, I'm not sure Crawford was the go to guy. Soriano was gone, but Carlos Lee, Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, & Raul Ibanez all outproduced Crawford last year.
Adam Dunn, Nick Swisher, and Manny Ramirez were all in the same level in terms of production, though lower than Crawford.
You can't knock Tom for liking Crawford the best out of that group. The difference in production isn't that high or low, so personal preference, and the belief that maybe another of those guys simply had great years and that Crawford is the best of the bunch is ok.
But with the 6th overall pick, Tom might have been better off going with a CF instead. He could have had Sizemore or Beltran or Andruw Johnes, consistent guys at a slightly weaker position that outproduced Crawford.
Then Tom bounces back with Miguel Cabrera, who I think actually went slightly later but never would have been available when the draft got back to Tom. I liked that pick a lot at that point in the draft.
Tom's 3rd pick, Jimmy Rollins, was an interesting call. If he produces like last year, it's a great pick actually. Tough position, and he was the second best fantasy producer. Tom also falls into the category of people with much stronger hitting than pitching.
Capone--going to have a lineup of bashers. Ryan Howard, likely won't produce like last year, but still a solid 8th pick. Manny Ramirez in round two, who missed a month and still was a top producing LF. Victor Martinez in Round 3--best available catcher.
Suzy went with David Wright, Grady Sizemore and Jake Peavy. So she got a top level 3B, a top level CF, and a very good pitcher. Can't really complain there.
Pops is the guy that most people don't realize knows his shit. Must be the Yoda thing. But he walked away with Beltran, Ortiz, and Brian McCann. Great CF, great utility guy, top level C.
But again, his pitching is a little weaker.
Finally, Neil. Vlad, Cano, and Tejada. He'll have a solid middle infield. But Neil probably made the worst pick of the day, because his guy wasn't injured (like Figgins) or good but just picked too early (like Carpenter).
Neil picked Kei Igawa. Yeah, it was in the 12th round, but shit, Wang was still available. Kei Igawa? Ugh.
I guess it isn't as bad as Steve's legendary Piazza with the 3rd overall pick, but Kei Igawa?
Personally, I hope Igawa wins the Cy Young, but I just don't expect that. I think that he actually might have gone undrafted without that.
Yeesh.
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Post by grover on Mar 25, 2007 14:36:03 GMT -5
Wow, Kei Igawa went before the break? LOL!!
Some goofy moves there.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 25, 2007 14:46:28 GMT -5
The break? I'm surprised he went before the ALL STAR break.
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Post by grover on Mar 25, 2007 15:41:45 GMT -5
LOL!
Jose has some risky moves with Pedro and Clemens, but if they pan out, he's got a heck of a staff for a 2nd half push.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 25, 2007 16:23:32 GMT -5
Jose took some interesting risks, and his team is pretty pitching heavy. In fact, he arguably didn't draft enough hitting. He'll be in a decent position to trade arms though.
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Post by elliejay21 on Mar 25, 2007 16:28:33 GMT -5
You people make it like Figgins is going to be out 4 months rather than the projected 4 weeks. He has 2 broken fingers, not a broken neck. I may have pulled the trigger a little early, but his eligibility makes him really valuable.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 25, 2007 16:38:52 GMT -5
He would have been drafted, but MUCH later. With that injury, he could have dropped at least another 5 rounds. You passed up a lot of top talent for Figgins. Just looking at your own team, you got Ryan Zimmerman, who outproduced Figgins last year, in Round 9. That was actually one of your best picks, but I think even healthy, it's tough to justify picking Figgins THAT early, even WITH that versatility.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 25, 2007 17:17:48 GMT -5
Your points are well thought out, but I stand by the Crawford pick, especially cause I lucked out and was able to grab Cabrera with my next one (in retrospect, I should have done it the other way around)
Crawford, however, is a player who is still blooming. He can get even better, and put up elite points. Hell, he is doing that already. Interesting combo of power and speed. And, looking at rankings and draft boards, he is a regular in round 1s.
I also think you are short-selling my pitching. Lackey, Harden, Cain, Myers, Nate Robertson, Maddux, and Adam Eaton. Whats not to like out of my top 5?
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Post by elliejay21 on Mar 25, 2007 17:47:13 GMT -5
Lackey will piss you off because he is inconsistant. That's why I traded him to Knoblauch last year, which was probably a mistake, because he was much better after that!
Harden is awesome, when he pitches, and that is a very big question. If he were just on the DL for half the season, he'd be better to have than all the late scratches. Every week that he was not on the DL, it was a torturous decision whether to put him in, because he was so oft skipped or pushed back a few days.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 25, 2007 18:09:37 GMT -5
I'm just looking at your pitching based on what they did last year. 2006 stats are perfect because they don't take into account players coming back from injuries or players ready to step to the next level. It's possible some of the picks made by you or anyone else in the league are hoping for certain people to do just that. I also can't account for team offseason moves, like as Laura pointed out yesterday, Ted Lilly moving from the AL East to the NL Central.
Cabrera should be a first round pick, and he's still one of the top 3 3Bs in baseball and that's a hard pitcher to fill. What you did was a less extreme version of what Evan did in his first year in the league, when he picked Fagglio Ordonez in the first round and bypassed Barrry Bonds (when he was still worthy of being in the first round). Miraculously, at least two other people passed on Bonds TWICE, and Evan got him in the second round.
For what it's worth, when looking at all the Yahoo leagues combined, Carl Crawford was averages the 14th pick. Cabrera was 10th overall on average. So while you may not have made the best choice with pick #1, you made up some ground in pick #2, where you had the 18th overall pick.
Rollins on average went 25th overall and you got him with the 31st pick.
That's why overall, it's a pretty good start.
By the way, how sad is it that Bernie Williams isn't even listed on Yahoo.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 25, 2007 19:43:13 GMT -5
By the way, how sad is it that Bernie Williams isn't even listed on Yahoo.
Why would he be? He doesnt have a job.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 25, 2007 20:43:54 GMT -5
True, but still sad to see since he didn't officially retire. There are people like Humberto Sanchez that are in the game too.
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Post by BoxSeatsSuck on Mar 26, 2007 5:54:02 GMT -5
Aight, so I made a CHERRY mistake not taking Wang over Igawa. Lets just hope that Igawa gives me more then I bargained for. If not... he will be up for grabs faster then a New York Minute.
However on the flip side of the coin.... Should he put up positive numbers ( and i am going on a limb here) i believe everyone will retract the "goofy and what are you thinking" type comments. LETS HOPE.
Good Luck everyone
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Post by elliejay21 on Mar 26, 2007 15:24:45 GMT -5
Might not be as big a mistake as originally thought, seeing as Wang is out for at least the first month of the season with an elbow injury...
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Post by nobeernofun on Mar 26, 2007 18:56:35 GMT -5
If someone has time (balls ) it might be interesting to ad up the 2006 totals & see how the teams stack up based on last years # ?
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 26, 2007 21:32:20 GMT -5
I'd need your lineups in there. It's not accurate though because people have career years, come back from injury, and of course, you have rookies.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 26, 2007 22:29:00 GMT -5
Yeah, seriously, that would be a waste of time.
Lets just let them play it on the field, folks.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 27, 2007 8:33:11 GMT -5
It's a waste of time, but what the hell, as lineups get in, and as I get a few minutes here and there, I'll make some projections in the light most favorable to the player. I'll use last year's stats primarily, and estimate some of the injured/new players' numbers.
This doesn't take into account pickups/drops/lineup changes. A good manager will make his team do better, and a bad manager will make his team do worse.
I'll go in the order Yahoo currently has the standings. Knoblauch doesn't get a prediction at this time because he doesn't have a lineup.
Starting with the Swinging Dicks:
I'm going to give Chris Young 480 points. Good players can do that fairly well. I'm sure Justin drafted him to do better than that, and I'm sure that if he can't seem to do that well, he will pick someone up that theoretically can bring the CF position to that level. I also am giving Matsusaka 400 points, which puts him as one of the top pitchers in baseball, but not some super top level Santana ace. Justin should be very happy if Matsusaka gives him that number, and it's probably realistic.
Justin is projected to have 7083 points. That's enough to finish in the money most years.
Larry doesn't get a prediction at this time because he doesn't have a lineup.
Neil-- Neil has a somewhat easier team to project because only one player, Sheets, deserves any add on points. I'm going to give Sheets 385 points because he should be able to do better with another 100 innings under his belt.
Neil projects at 6785 points.
Capone-- I'm going to give Delmon Young and Alex Gordon 450 points each. Just a rough guess. Randy Wolf I'll give 275 points. He's not an elite pitcher, and shouldn't do better than that barring a career year. I'm also going to add 100 points to Dontrelle Willis' total because I think he had an awful fantasy year and is capable of much better as he showed in 2005.
With all those factors, Capone projects at 7295 points.
Jose-- No Lineup Yet
More to come later!!!!
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Post by IronHorse4 on Mar 27, 2007 9:00:13 GMT -5
Chris B. Young will be on my bench the minute Alfonso Soriano becomes eligible at CF.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 27, 2007 9:01:18 GMT -5
Balls, in all due respect, save it. Projects are just that. We can go to any number of sites and make up projections. Why should we buy into yours? Why are we even going down this road?
This is just stupid. And, to top it all off, what do YOU know about Chris Young? How are you just going to come on here and throw out numbers one way or another on him? Its just stupid, and somewhat bizarre.
Pretty much all you are going to do is aggravate the league members. Leave that to the OTHER league members. The commissioner should not be on here rating teams, making fun of draft picks, and goofing off.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 27, 2007 9:35:20 GMT -5
You don't have to know as much about a specific player. You can make a rough estimate based on the fact whether he's starting, not a superstar, and based on how other players from good to bad tend to score. All estimations are guesses, but they won't be devastatingly far off.
Pops asked me to do this, so it's a service I have no worry providing. People need to take it in stride as I'm the only person involved in the league that couldn't care less who wins.
Justin's comment about moving Young to the bench early doesn't really change much given that he has some solid bench players capable of producing at the level I predicted for Young. So I can keep his projection.
Moving on....
Tom-- Derrek Lee will be returning from injury, and if he returns to 2005 form, he will be a key player on Tom's team. His 2005 season was sick though netting 720 points. I think it's fair to give him 675 points, assuming a full season at or near his 2005 numbers.
Rich Harden is a solid K pitcher which is important in fantasy. Assuming he stays healthy for the season, I'll give him 350 points. Tom projects at 6952 points.
Milton-- I'm going to give Pavano an even 300 points. This assumes the longshot that he is healthy and will win games with the power lineup behind him. Milton comes in at 6916 points.
Evan--I'm going to give Howie Kendrick 400 points. He played half a season last year (almost), so I'm doubling his numbers. I believe Matsui will produce at or near his 2005 level, and that's 550 points. I'm going to assume Baldelli will play more than in previous years, but given his consistent Griffey-like injuries, I'll limit him to 450 points. That's fair in light of Evan having a second CFer that can produce those number anyway.
Evan projects at 7237 points.
More to come!!!
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Mar 27, 2007 9:59:12 GMT -5
dont listen to tom. im enjoying this and am looking forward to what you think of the 2007 smash fuckin mouth.
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Post by TripleThreatJYP on Mar 27, 2007 10:13:16 GMT -5
"I'm going to give Delmon Young and Alex Gordon 450 points each. Just a rough guess."
LOL
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 27, 2007 10:19:35 GMT -5
Fair enough. Since I didn't realize you really DID have a lineup in there, I can look at your team anyway. I'll do one more before lunch:
Larry's team has solid hitting, and there's no real need to bump anyone. I don't like Gary Matthews Jr. I think he was a fluke. But for this projection, I said I would look at everything in the light most favorable to the player, so I'll use those stats.
With pitching, Jered Weaver is the key for Larry's team. In half a season, he got 306 points, which is good for a #3 or #4 starter over a FULL season. He was basically pitching at or near a Santana level for the time he was available. So what would he do over a full season? I'm going to be generous and give him 500 points. He has the potential to do better, but as a high strikeout pitcher for a good team, that's a fantasy goldmine. I'm going to assume he's not going to go 20-4, but 18-6 would be a hell of a season. If you proportion out what he did, he would get about 560 points. So 500 isn't that far off, assuming his pace slows a bit, which it should.
AJ Burnett is no Weaver in upside, but he's solid and also would get another 70 or so innings over a full season. So I'll give him another 100 points and clock him in at 340.
Looks like Larry has the best hitting of people so far.
If everything breaks his way, Larry could be back at the top of the league, projecting at a whopping 7419 points.
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Mar 27, 2007 10:37:18 GMT -5
thats what i thought. i tried to look at these teams very objectively. there are some very very good teams out there, but my hitting is phenomenal, and my pitching might suprise some people. i have a feeling this season is going to be another big pay day for me thanks for the donations guys.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 27, 2007 11:35:14 GMT -5
For christs sake, you are REALLY overselling Weaver. Hell, his own manager is on record saying that he surpassed all realistic expectations last year. How could you glom all over Weaver, but totally ignore 26 year old Brett Myers (who EVERYONE is picking to really bust out to the elite this year) and Matt Cain on my team?
Where the Hell are you pulling your projected numbers from? Mind telling me how you can have me FIVE HUNDRED POINTS behind Larry???
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 27, 2007 11:44:22 GMT -5
Most of the numbers come from what they did in 2006. Absolutely, it's possible for people to do better than they did last year, and it's also possible for people to be knocked down a peg. Hitters tend to be fairly consistent year to year.
Cain and Myers on your team are both going to have to increase their win total significantly to have much better years than last year. Keep in mind though that this league is still weighted so that hitters are the bread and butter.
Even if Cain and Myers have much better years, that may add 200 points to your team. 100 extra points over last year from both of them is a tall order.
And you probably right about Weaver. Had he pitched at the same level for 35 starts, Weaver would have had 560 or so points. I gave him 500 based on him not quite hitting that level all year. That has him pitching at about 89 percent as well as last year. For Weaver to not reach that, it would mean that he was not just pitching over his head, but WAAAAAY over his head. Even if Weaver gives Larry 450 points, he would be significantly worse than last year. But for the preseason prediction purpose, I give the benefits of the doubt to the player.
Laura's on deck!
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Mar 27, 2007 11:50:55 GMT -5
tom, my team projects 450 points ahead of yours because your team sucks. lol. matt cain and brett myers. good luck with those yokes.
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