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Post by jwmcc on Mar 27, 2007 11:55:04 GMT -5
I'm gonna have to agree with Larry on this one:
Projected top 4 finishers in the league this year: 1.Larry 2.Justin 3.Laura 4.Pops
Battle for relegation will be between Tom and Jose.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 27, 2007 11:55:35 GMT -5
Laura's team:
I'm going to give Varitek 350 points. It's a bit lower than he does on average, but he's coming off an injury plagued season, and he's older. On a good year, he'd get about 400 points.
Again, these numbers are based solely on the current lineup, and don't take into account your bench, and what you plan to do. There are some injuries that will keep players out of your lineup on Opening Day, and that will add points to your team assuming they are better.
Anthony Reyes didn't pitch a full season, so I'll give him the standard mediocre 300 points. Looking at some fantasy rankings, he ranks below some midlevel pitchers, and given that he plays for a .500 team, he should be in that neighborhood.
I'm also going to bump Ted Lilly up to 340 points. I think he's good for another 50-60 points in the NL Central.
Laura is projecting at 6635 points, but it should be noted that some of Laura's players are hurt (like Figgins). She should come in ahead of that projection once those guys get healthy.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 27, 2007 12:13:44 GMT -5
Pops' team doesn't require too much altering. I'll bump Bonds to 525 points. The way he plays, he would have to significantly decline or spend even more time on the DL than last year to not reach that goal. He had 463 points in just 367 at bats. I may even be selling Bonds short. Chuck James is probably good for another 150 points over a full season, so give him 380.
Pops is projecting at 7253 points, and that's with a couple of solid pitchers that are currently injured, assuming Schilling can pitch a full season at his age.
Pops has a solid team.
And finally for today, Suzy:
I'll give Steven Drew a solid 450 points because over a full season, he should be able to accomplish that.
Rich Hill over a full season should be able to net 350, and Cole Hamels, who averages more than a K an inning, should be able to get 400 points. Suzy comes in at 6860.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 27, 2007 12:17:33 GMT -5
What a joke.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 27, 2007 12:26:46 GMT -5
That's not a joke. You want a joke?
What do you do with an elephant with 3 balls?
Walk him an pitch to the rhino.
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Post by jwmcc on Mar 27, 2007 12:34:01 GMT -5
that doesn't even make sense.
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Post by IronHorse4 on Mar 27, 2007 12:35:00 GMT -5
Was that Hot Shots, or Hot Shots Part Deux?
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 27, 2007 12:36:04 GMT -5
The first one. A classic movie. In part deux, it was "a horse walks into a bar, the bartender says, 'why the long face?'"
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Mar 27, 2007 12:41:52 GMT -5
haha, i project to be champion! hi tom!!!
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 27, 2007 12:48:51 GMT -5
Well, after your humiliating performance last year, it would be a way for you to save face.
Go ahead and project whatever you want. Do a jumping jack for all I care. Get back to me next week when we substitute cold hard numbers for guesswork.
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Post by jwmcc on Mar 27, 2007 12:50:18 GMT -5
Didn't Larry finish ahead of you though? Jw
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Post by IronHorse4 on Mar 27, 2007 13:27:02 GMT -5
While I'm not terribly disappointed in my projection/prediction, it should be noted that the two people who have made said predictions are a guy who doesn't know much baseball and a guy who finished in last place the last time he was in the league.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 27, 2007 13:32:58 GMT -5
Didn't Larry finish ahead of you though?
No.
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Post by BoxSeatsSuck on Mar 27, 2007 13:48:29 GMT -5
its funny that my team didn't even get honorable mention. Its all cause i picked Igawa right...........
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 27, 2007 14:24:45 GMT -5
The predictions only require knowing how to add 2006 numbers. They also don't account for people changing their lineups, trading, adding players, dropping players, the fact that this is a different year, or injuries. Additionally, it's hard to get maxium points anyway because of weekly roster moves. For the most part, the teams are fairly close, as they should be. There usually is about an 800-1000 point spread between first and last, and these numbers are in that range.
And I wouldn't say that Tom knows NOTHING about baseball.
Like the old saying goes, you don't win on paper.
In 2003, I jotted down some predictions and most people finished pretty close to where I said. Justin and Knoblauch were two exceptions. Justin had some injury issues and Knoblauch made some great pickups.
Kwik didn't run his team at all and underachieved.
Knoblauch and Jose are pending their lineups.
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Mar 27, 2007 14:38:02 GMT -5
lol @ do a jumping jack for all i care.
you will have another lame excuse just like you always do when i take off with an early lead over your scrubs, tj.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 27, 2007 15:33:43 GMT -5
Rich Harden has stuck out 25 of the 53 batters he has faced this spring. But, by all means, lets talk about Jered Weaver!
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Mar 27, 2007 15:39:09 GMT -5
what part of rich harden can not stay healthy dont you understand. i had him last year, and never even considered him into my teams equation knowing that he would probably be dl more than he would play. you should probably look to do the same.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 27, 2007 15:45:18 GMT -5
That was then, this is now.
Guys who were hurt may be fine. Guys who are fine today may go down in pain tomorrow.
One reason I dont like firing back and forth with you on here is you never have anything positive to say about anyone elses team, or anything someone else is doing. Its all stupid trash talk, that you probably dont even believe yourself.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 27, 2007 17:12:11 GMT -5
Harden averages less than a K an inning over his career. He has never pitched 200 innings. He has never started more than 31 games, and that was 1 time.
Weaver averaged 6.5 innings a start. He also was healthy.
Harden is a good pitcher. I hope he stays healthy for your sake. But I wouldn't really do a jig over a good spring. If Harden can pitch a full season and have a career year, you're going to be in pretty damn good shape.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 27, 2007 17:21:35 GMT -5
Weaver averaged 6.5 innings a start. He also was healthy
Do you know anything about Jered Weaver? He has been shut down this spring, and is just working himself back into play for the early part of the season. He is missing his first start. So he's hurt NOW. So where is your "if he stays healthy" crap in regards to him?
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 27, 2007 18:04:58 GMT -5
It's spring training. That doesn't make him a health risk. Lots of people have nagging injuries in March.
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Post by nobeernofun on Mar 27, 2007 22:12:59 GMT -5
Good job Balls !!! I know It is still like a week from opening day so I was thinking this would make for some good hot stove talk . Let's hope all our players stay healthy & have good years . Looks like we all did a good job drafting our Teams & the standing look to be a real horse race . Good luck to all , Now pay balls
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Post by joetee316 on Mar 28, 2007 7:22:54 GMT -5
Just out of curiousity: What's the fee for your league and who is sitting the year out on the sidelines because of the last place finish?
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 28, 2007 7:31:55 GMT -5
I don't like to discuss league money on message boards, but Grover is the current victim of the Walkman John rule.
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Post by joetee316 on Mar 28, 2007 8:34:46 GMT -5
Grover, you looking to get involved in a new league to hold you over? Let me know. We can discuss details if you're interested.
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Mar 28, 2007 8:57:15 GMT -5
haha. look @ joetee trying to get some easy money in his league by taking our relegates. lol, smart man you are joetee, smart man. lmfao.
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Post by MSBNYY on Mar 28, 2007 9:05:38 GMT -5
Jose has put in a lineup, so I can give the preseason outlook:
His catcher, Gerald Laird, only had 243 ABs last year. But would he get 500 this year? I tried to do a little research on him, and he looks like a bottom of the lineup guy who will not exactly be a Jorge Posada type. So I'm only going to give him 275 points. That's probably generous unless there's some report on him that I didn't see.
Sheffield is healthy, but coming off an injury filled year and no longer hitting in as good of a lineup. He'll be playing with something to prove, but I don't know if he can match his 2005 numbers. I'll give him 550 points, though he could possibly do better.
His pitching isn't as good as I originally thought. Sowers only pitched 88.1 innings last year. He's not a high strikeout pitcher. He only had 35Ks in those 88 innings. Good ERA though and a very good WHIP. I think giving him 325 points is fair.
Cabrera only pitched 148 innings last year. I'm being charitable in giving him 300 points this year.
Gagne is going to be an interesting pitcher for Jose this year. Is he back? Will he bust? Or will he be something in between? In his last full season, Gagne was good for a whopping 500 points. But that was 2004. Being generous again, I'll give Gagne 400 points.
Jose's team has the riskiest pitching staff by far. On his bench are Bartolo Colon (coming off a 50 IP season), Roger Clemens (who may not pitch) and Pedro Martinez (who will not see action until probably the second half).
His two closers are Gagne and Gordon. A guy pushing 40, and a guy coming off not one but TWO lost seasons.
Jose's strength is his hitting but he really is going to need his guys healthy because he probably has the least depth of any team in the league.
He also has Johan Santana and Oswalt, and is going to need them badly.
Jose clocks in at 7066 points.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Mar 28, 2007 9:21:12 GMT -5
Hey, retard, how can you rank Jose's team over mine after all the shredding (rightfully so) you did of it?
Gagne will be hurt again before May, by the way.
haha. look @ joetee trying to get some easy money in his league by taking our relegates. lol, smart man you are joetee, smart man. lmfao.
I will only allow Grover to make the jump if he signs a contract promising to come back over here next year when he is free to do so once again. Relegation only lasts one year.
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Post by joetee316 on Mar 28, 2007 9:27:54 GMT -5
LOL. I may need do to organize a 2nd league because you guys have quite a big waiting list.
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