$heriff Tom
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Groom ba ya ya ya
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Post by $heriff Tom on Feb 10, 2010 22:53:02 GMT -5
What Im hearing for Damon is and the Braves is 1 year for 2 million, with another 2 million deferred.
He flubbed. Sucks to be him. Yankees will be fine. The rest of the 200 million dollar brigade will pick up for him.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Feb 11, 2010 6:52:08 GMT -5
No they won't. That's the problem. 5 shitty outfielders does not equal one good one.
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Post by heartybooooo on Feb 11, 2010 11:20:26 GMT -5
Relying on statistical analysis it seems the OF trade-off left the Yankees even:
Curtis Granderson, CF/LF, Yankees Whether Granderson winds up playing center or left for the Yankees, he'll be replacing Johnny Damon's total at-bats while some combination of Brett Gardner and Randy Winn will replace Melky Cabrera at the other spot. Offensively, Damon was worth four wins over replacement last year according to VORP, which is the same level of production Granderson provided for the Tigers in 2008, but in 2009, Granderson fell off to 2.5 wins. He'll have to rebound to close the gap, which is smaller than it first appears due to the fact that Damon cost the Yankees a win in the field last year, dropping his total value to three wins over replacement. Granderson's defense is a matter of some dispute. UZR had him as close to a win and a half above replacement in center in 2006 and 2007, nearly a win below replacement in 2008, and roughly average in 2009. The Yankees should expect average defense from him in center and perhaps better than that in left, which means that, even before factoring in a rebound at the plate (some of which will be due to his escaping the lefty-killing Comerica Park), he would be at least as valuable as Damon in left field and could likely hold the line in center as well. While that may not sound like much for 2010, it's worth noting that Granderson is seven years Damon's junior and signed to a reasonable contract for the next four years.
Estimated upgrade: Even
But a huge upgrade with Vazquez
Javier Vazquez, SP, Yankees Vazquez was one of the best starters in the National League last year, while the Yankee fifth starters whom he'll be replacing (Chien-Ming Wang, Phil Hughes, Sergio Mitre, Chad Gaudin, and Alfredo Aceves) combined to post a 6.92 ERA over 32 starts while throwing just 147 innings. Vazquez is unlikely to repeat his career-best 2009 season (2.97 ERA, 238 K's, 7.4 SNLVAR) and will suffer some from returning to the tougher league, but he's replacing a combined performance that was a half-run below replacement according to SNLVAR. That makes him pure upgrade, and one which looks even better when you factor in the middle-relief innings he'll also be replacing (Vazquez averaged 216 IP over the last decade).
Estimated upgrade: 4+ wins
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Post by IronHorse4 on Feb 11, 2010 12:18:31 GMT -5
Granderson will turn out to be an upgrade.
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Post by heartybooooo on Feb 11, 2010 12:22:00 GMT -5
I think so too. I think he will hit more HRs in Yankee Stadium. And the defense will be much better.
I don't think their lineup fits together as well as last year. But they still will have a top 5 offense and their pitching will be much better. I love Vazquez as a fourth starter. A huge upgrade.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Feb 11, 2010 12:43:23 GMT -5
I WISH this team will win 107 games.
There is no way that the Damon/Melky combination isn't better than Granderson/Gardner/Winn.
Again, the inability to hit a lefty, combined with the inability to even hit .250, combined with the inability to NOT strikeout too much is a HUGE detriment. Sometimes the fancier stats aren't as important as the old fashioned ones.
Unless Granderson raises his average against lefties about 100 points over last year, he will NOT be an upgrade.
Same holds true for the Winn/Gardner combo. Winn last year flat out sucked. Over his CAREER, he is an upgrade at the plate over Melky, but last year? Nope.
Could Granderson hit more HRs than Damon? Sure. But he's a HUGE problem when lefties are pitching. Damon wasn't. If a good lefty is pitching, he might as well stay home.
In order for Granderson to be an offensive upgrade over Damon, he will have to dramatically improve over last year. And there is NO WAY to measure true clutch hitting.
As for Vazquez, throw last year in the toilet. He pitched in the NL. Who cares about IP if you suck? I never got that. A shitty pitcher is a shitty pitcher, even if he throws 200IP.
Vazquez is a proven New York failure. The only thing that may matter is if he has the mental capacity to recognize that and be a man on a mission to show that 2004 was the fluke.
This team, on paper, is not as good as the 2009 team.
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Post by heartybooooo on Feb 11, 2010 14:09:05 GMT -5
Even if the offense is worse, the defense is much better.
And even if Vazquez is only has a league average ERA (I think it will be better), that is better than almost every other team's third starter, let alone the fourth starter. Think Pettitte last year.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Feb 11, 2010 14:40:57 GMT -5
The defense is definitely better, though Granderson did have difficulty with flyballs last year to the point where people were questioning his vision.
As for league averages, I'm not really big on them. League averages include the shitty teams, and they are irrelevant. This is a team contending for a championship. Vazquez has to be good enough to start a playoff game, and so far, he hasn't shown he can do that in NY.
His ERA in the AL East could push the 5.00 range, and that absolutely sucks.
If he does Pettitte numbers, and matches his 4.16 ERA over a season, that's fine for the regular season. But that said, Pettitte stepped it up in the playoffs and Vazquez is a playoff choker.
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Post by whalerfan on Feb 12, 2010 10:12:43 GMT -5
The offense will be fine in the regular season, just like it was from 02-07. In a short series against tough pitching, I would take last year's lineup over the 2010 lineup. I have a lot more faith in Damon and Matsui hitting top pitching, especially lefties, over Granderson and Johnson.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Feb 12, 2010 10:22:48 GMT -5
That's the thing--in a short series against good pitching--that's what matters most.
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Post by IronHorse4 on Feb 12, 2010 11:10:58 GMT -5
Vazquez blows in a big game, but he's fine as the 4th starter. Until they need him in the playoffs.
Granderson will be fine, and he is better to have in the long-term.
I mean, fuck, what did you want the Yankees to do? Cave in to Boras? Keep paying out money just because they have it? Drive salaries up up up even further? That's a big part of what's wrong with baseball, and sports in general. I can't believe I'm saying this, but the Yankees were actually the model of fiscal responsibility here. Don't want a cap? Well, then you need the Yankees to do more of what they did here with Damon. Unless you don't give a shit about baseball.
Fuck...there's nothing wrong with Granderson. He's young, and he had a bad year last year, and he STILL did what he did. He'll learn how to hit lefties. Or he won't. He's still going to be better in the long-term than Damon, because Damon will be done in two years, if not sooner.
Fuck Scott Boras, and fuck Johnny Damon. I hope he gets mugged in Detroit.
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Post by whalerfan on Feb 12, 2010 11:25:47 GMT -5
"but the Yankees were actually the model of fiscal responsibility here."
I don't see why they couldn't have had Damon and Granderson. I would've liked for them to spend $10 million on Damon for one year (which I think he would have eventually accepted) than $6 million on Winn, Gaudin and Mitre combined (about $4.5 million more than they should have spent there). Minor leaguers at the minimum can easily match all three of those players' production. In the end, that will be about a $4 million difference which is not going to change the financial landscape of baseball.
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Post by IronHorse4 on Feb 12, 2010 11:48:07 GMT -5
While we're at it, they could have had Holliday, too! Then we'll grab Pujols and Mauer, and we'll win it all every year, and there's nothing fundamentally wrong with that at all!
Seeing this situation clearly, the Yankees sent a message to Boras and...well...Boras. You're not holding the Yankees hostage. He eventually would have signed 1-year, $10 million? Well guess what...he had a chance to have more, and he didn't take it. So fuck him, and fuck Damon.
These are the terms. Take it or leave it. Don't like it? Fuck you...we're the Yankees. We'll get somebody else.
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Post by whalerfan on Feb 12, 2010 12:03:20 GMT -5
Who said they wanted Pujols, Mauer and Holliday? The Yankees, if they waited it out, could've had Granderson and Damon in the same OF and the payroll would be just about the same as it is now. You call the Yankees "the model of fiscal responsibility" but in the last month, Mitre, Gaudin and Winn, who had one of the worst 500 at-bat seasons in the history of baseball last year, were given about $2 mil apiece. Cashman's ego, even more than Boras', is the reason why the Yankees will take the field in April with a worse lineup in 2009.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Feb 12, 2010 15:18:54 GMT -5
4th starters don't win championships. They don't even get you there. Playoff teams get there in spite of 4th starters, not because of them, and contending teams don't need 4th starters. They need 3rd starters, at minimum, for the final 3 spots in the rotation. That's how championships are won. Otherwise, you have to use a 3 man rotation in October.
4th starters in general, suck. If you're ERA is 5.00, you suck.
At no point did I ever say the Yanks should have caved in for Boras. On the contrary, while I hate that Damon is not a Yankee, I can't and don't blame the Yankees for how it turned out.
The Yankees were reasonable. They were beyond reasonable, and I believe that whatever Damon gets, it will be less than the 2 year, $14 million offer that he turned down.
I said it several times--Johnny Damon is the reason that Johnny Damon is not a Yankee.
But I can't see that Granderson will be fine. There is no reason to believe that. Ultimately, here's a guy in his prime, that can't hit a lefty. For him to be fine, he will have to raise his average against lefties by 100 points. Then he will be fine. His numbers against lefties are that bad.
He will also have to find a way to cut the strikeouts down. I'm not saying 10 a year, but under 100 is not unreasonable to want from someone that is supposed to be a good hitter.
Sure, other people strike out more than 100 times in the lineup. More of a reason that bringing in a Swisher-esque low average, high strikeout guy is a bad move.
Granderson is no Johnny Damon. There's no reason to think he will do well in a big spot. He's another Swisher at the plate.
Yes, Damon has less time left than Granderson, but in 2 years, there will be better options than Damon or Granderson out there--especially if Crawford is out there.
And absolutely they could have had Damon and Granderson. Damon wasn't the issue when they got Granderson. At best, he will be an upgrade over Melky when hitting against righties. Not lefties unfortunately.
As has been pointed out, the money spent on Winn and Johnson could easily have paid for a year of Damon, and the team would have been better off.
Ultimately, I agree that in this case, the Yankees did not do anything wrong with Damon. But that doesn't change that this outfield is not exactly a championship level OF.
The defense is not that great, and the offense for 3 OFers is terrible--especially when they deal with a strikeout pitcher, who will have a field day.
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Post by thecaptain15 on Feb 22, 2010 9:25:44 GMT -5
Chan Ho Park is a Yankee. $1.2M plus some incentives.
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Post by heartybooooo on Feb 22, 2010 10:45:48 GMT -5
He pitched well out of the bullpen last year. Good addition for bullpen depth.
Although every time I hear his name I have to laugh as someone in my fantasy baseball league drafted him way too high after he signed his deal with the Rangers and then crashed. It has been a running joke in the league ever since. I may have to draft him in the 25th round just to elicit the jokes.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Feb 22, 2010 10:49:29 GMT -5
As anything but a middle reliever, the idea of using this guy is ridiculous. He can probably do ok in the Brian Bruney role.
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Post by 9 on Feb 22, 2010 10:54:01 GMT -5
I laughed when he went to Philly, but he actually did a decent job there, in a ballpark similar to ours in terms of balls flying out of the place. Could be a decent pickup. Cheap enough.
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