Johan Santana Thread

[grover]

Wait, 'best player in baseball' changes year to year?

So if Babe Ruth has an off year in the middle of his prime he is no longer the best player in Baseball? Funny, last time I checked best player status was decided by a large body of work, not half a season.

Ok, so who would you take from 04 until now? Beckett, Peavy, Sabathia, or Santana?

[MSBNYY]

That's when you're judging someone for a career, not for a given year. In 1925, Babe Ruth was not the best player in baseball.

We're not looking at judging someone from what they did. We're looking at what someone can do in 2008.

[grover]

And future projections are based on what? MAYBE IT'S BASED ON WHAT THEY DID IN THE PAST!!! LOL!!

[$heriff Tom]

I love how Balls already has Hughes penciled in as an All-Star. What a dork.

[MSBNYY]

Never said he was an all star, though he does have the potential to be one. And projections are based on potential, not what they did in the past. Lots of factors go into it, like body type, age, growth, and stuff.

I know Tom wants to downgrade Hughes because he wears pinstripes, but that doesn't change that he's already MLB ready, and has the potential to be a top tier starter.

[grover]

But there's potential and there's an actuality in Santana. He IS a top tier starter, and the best pitcher in Baseball, and has been since 2004. You can drum up any sort of elbow problem you want, you have no proof of that and I dare you to provide me ten articles from ten different writers stating that Santana has an elbow problem.

I'm sure you'll just go "You look it up" because I know you won't be able to find any.

Only you can turn a decent point into something stupid.

[MSBNYY]

Until he comes to NY, plays with a shitty defense, and tanks. I'm sure you're ok with giving up the entire team for him, but no single player is worth what the Twins want, PLUS a $25 million a year contract until he's in his late 30s.

[grover]

Again, you're missing the point. THAT is a decent argument, saying the Yanks may give up too much. I respect that point of view. But really, you're hemming and hawing about the D and elbow problems as if as soon as he gets here he will go 9-20 with a 10.63 ERA. Stop it already.

[kingdzbws]

Hughes will never be "a top tier starter"

[whalerfan]

The Yankees aren't winning shit if Santana comes here and Joba is not in the pen. I can see him going 9-8 with a 2.67 ERA with 11 wins blown by that putrid collection of set-up relief.

[MSBNYY]

How many superduper stars have to come here and tank before you start getting weary of it? There was NO EVIDENCE Giambi would be such a failure here. No evidence Kevin Brown or Randy Johnson would fail here.

Give up Melky, and we have the worst OF in the majors. Give up Cano, and Wilson Betemit is your 2B. It's not like you're getting a gold glove there. Not to mention you're giving up a guy who can hit #3 in the order right now.

All for a guy that pitches once every 5 games--if healthy.

And Santana's weak second half does not warrant giving up one of the big three--especially with just one signed year.

And Joba is a starter--it becomes even more important if they give up Hughes.

[mac0822]

When I think of it. I'm with MSB. Why would NY give up "studs" to get him when they could sign him to to a 18 year $643 million contract for "free" next offseason? Odds are - he's hitting the FA market, so why not wait a year?

[$heriff Tom]

Odds are he is NOT hitting the market. Minny will trade him, there is no doubt of it. And whoever deals with him will most likely have a window to lock him up, so they dont simply rent him.

[MSBNYY]

Not necessarily. MLB teams have to be smart enough to realize that there is no chance the Twins will sign him, so no matter how you slice it, Minnesota cannot be dealing from too much strength. There are only a small number of teams that will be able to afford the 30 year, $2.25 billion contract at all. So that eliminates a good chunk of teams that may have a good package, but not the ability to sign him long term.

Boston just won a World Series with what they have. Can't get much better than that. Why deplete their farm for a one year rental? Even if they sign him, they lose the ability to reload should injuries happen. I read a good article where Dan Duquette pointed out that keeping their prospects may be better for Boston--especially when they need to think about replacing Manny in the not too distant future.

So let's say Boston plays smart and waits. Who else? Anaheim? Always a player, but are they willing to part with the prospects AND sign him long term? It just isn't smart baseball.

Santana has a no trade. That means he can force an extension on the new team.

It's not a no brainer that he won't make it to free agency. Plus, he may WANT to test the open market.

[mac0822]

I agree. He's not going to "settle" for a below market deal, so any package would be for simply a one year rental. It sounds like he's going to the highest bidder & wants market value, so any team trading for hiim will have to pony up the same amount they would have if he was a FA next year.

A contract that isn't shit on anywhere near as much as it should is Barry Zito's. If he's worth 18 per year, what is Johan worth?

[$heriff Tom]

No, you watch. He will be traded, and he will spend the next few years with wherever it is he goes. The trade will go down, and the deal will get done.

[MSBNYY]

That's a good question. I think that's why the number $25 million is being thrown about. But then again, if you sign him now, you don't have the benefit of seeing if last year's second half was a fluke, or the new Santana. If Santana has a full year with an ERA of 4.00 or higher, he is not worth the money he'd get if he were on the open market today. He could pull an Andruw Jones and severely hurt his market value.

Santana probably has the most bargaining power of all of them since he has that no trade and free agency coming.

[mac0822]

If you're Minn. you have no choice but to trade him. I would think the price will come down, but how can they sell a trade to their fans unless they bring back impact players?

I know what MSB is speaking of since I drafted him #1 overall in my Fantasy Draft & he let me down, but I simply don't see him doing any worse than he did last year. Even at least year's pace, he's a $20 million pitcher...sadly.

[Bad Mouth Larry]

msb. you are a fuckin disgrace. i just read page 4. you are a complete moron. if i had any say in the msg board community, you would be the fuck outta here forever.

johan will definitely be traded before next year, unless minn give him an agreeable extension.

[MSBNYY]

He's a $20 million pitcher if you include his first half. I'm talking judging him solely on the second half, and there's a risk. Why did he give up over a run a game more than he had been over the past few years? A 4.00 pitcher is not a $20 million a year pitcher. By today's standards, he's a $15-$17 million a year pitcher, which is pathetic, but true.

The Twins need to decide whether to risk him being back to normal, and going for a playoff run with Liriano, or to trade him and hope. But I don't think the Twins have that much bargaining power. And they should not be getting anywhere close to fair market value.

[$heriff Tom]

Why did he give up over a run a game more than he had been over the past few years?

You are going to discount half a dozens worth of years for a spell of 3 months?? During that "awful" 3 months, he also had a game where he struck out 17 hitters, and another two where he struck out more than 10. The stuff was STILL there.

You are making it sound like his ERA was 5.8. Give me a break. I would kill for Phil Hughes to pitch to an ERA just over 4 for the full year next year, and so would you, and here you are trying to kill THE BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL for it.

[MSBNYY]

Phil Hughes will not be making $25 million to pitch a 4.00 ERA. And yes, when a great pitcher suddenly becomes nothing special, it should raise a red flag. If ARod hit .250 over half a year, you'd have to wonder if something is wrong.

Santana is actually known for having stellar second halves too. I'm not saying the guy is done. But it's a red flag.

Who knows? Maybe it was all mental, and he was just fed up with losing. Or maybe it was just a small slump--a speed bump. But it's a gamble.

[mac0822]

No doubt MSB is blowing his second half up. I rememer he gave up a couple grand slams that inflated that ERA. Without them, he'd be in the 3's. Of course - if my aunt had a dick, she'd be be uncle...but whatever.

Johan is going to get his 6/150 extension or he'll simply veto any trade. If he's a money hungry spic like it appears, he'll be in pinstripes one way or the other.

[thecaptain15]

When I think of it. I'm with MSB. Why would NY give up "studs" to get him when they could sign him to to a 18 year $643 million contract for "free" next offseason?

Yes Mac and the Red Sox won't be bidding neck and neck? Maybe they can give the MLB $50M just for the right to negotiate with him exclusively when he turns free agent...

[MSBNYY]

That's the thing though--he had a BUNCH of bad games. He seemed to have some serious trouble with Cleveland down the stretch. The bottom line is that he gave up those runs, and his second half was very ordinary. In his last 7 starts, he gave up 4 runs or more 5 times. And in one of the two that he didn't give up 4 runs, he gave up 2 runs in 3 innings. Did he run out of gas? Not a good thing for a team looking to deal with October.

And if he is that money hungry, his best bet is to just get to the open market.

[mac0822]

Do I think Boston would be in the bidding if it hits the 6/150 range? No. Only one team will be in that hunt...Kinda like the ARod contract. Nobody was close to that 10/275 #, but they still paid it..for some reason.

[MSBNYY]

There was an offer for 8 years at 225, which is a higher average. And keep in mind the contract Zito got, and the Yanks were nowhere near that. I think that Boston could match the Yanks dollar for dollar, or at least drive the price up--if they choose.

[thecaptain15]

There is no doubt the Red Sox can go toe to toe with the Yanks on any player that they really wanted badly.....

[kingdzbws]

Phil Hughes will be Ted Lilly - AT BEST. Who the fuck annointed him a STUD?

Joba had one good half a season and he's God in spikes, and Santana is had a bad half and is a bust.

[MSBNYY]

Baseball America annointed him. Phil Hughes is MUCH better than Ted Lilly. And no one is saying Santana is a bust, but it won't cost $204 trillion to have Hughes this year. It would be foolish to not at least be concerned about that red flag.