$heriff Tom
Administrator
Groom ba ya ya ya
Posts: 16,173
|
Post by $heriff Tom on Sept 28, 2007 9:24:45 GMT -5
Well, this rumor has popped up. Discuss.
I dont do it, cause I really like Joba. But I can understand if the Yankees have interest in such a thing.
Santana for Hughes I would do immediatly.
|
|
|
Post by thecaptain15 on Sept 28, 2007 9:31:10 GMT -5
Tom I agree 100% with you on both fronts...
|
|
$heriff Tom
Administrator
Groom ba ya ya ya
Posts: 16,173
|
Post by $heriff Tom on Sept 28, 2007 9:35:20 GMT -5
Joba's the man. But lets look at it from the point of the unbiased. Santana is, without a doubt, the cream of the crop. Could Joba be that? Maybe. Santana is a proven product. This deal would have to be considered for that alone. Keep in mind Santana is still 28 years old. I would love to see the reaction to such a deal - can you imagine? Yankees bring in the best pitcher in baseball, and still the Bronx burns down. Cause Joba has the city in the palm of his hand.
What happens next year if Joba is 1-3 with a 5.87 ERA after 5 starts? That could happen. Doubt it will, but could. Joba is pitching over his head from all accounts, although he is figured to have Cy-Young quality stuff in his gun.
We'll see. Yankees would be dumb to hear "Joba for Santana" and just hang up the phone. Things to consider.
|
|
MSBNYY
Administrator
El Guapo
Posts: 15,545
|
Post by MSBNYY on Sept 28, 2007 9:36:14 GMT -5
Santana is a free agent in one year. Why blow off your top prospects for a possible one year rental? All things EQUAL, sure I would do Santana for Hughes, but all things are not equal.
The Yanks could have their cake and eat it too. Santana is poised for a possible $160 million 8 year deal. You'd be trading a pitcher who is going to be very good and in his early 20s, for a pitcher is already very good, that will at best, benefit you in his 30s.
The future looks bright for Yankee starting pitching. As great as Santana is, I'd rather wait and grab him when it only costs dollars rather than players.
|
|
MSBNYY
Administrator
El Guapo
Posts: 15,545
|
Post by MSBNYY on Sept 28, 2007 9:38:21 GMT -5
If Joba is 1-3 with a 5.87 ERA, you chalk it up to growing pains. Is Joba pitching over his head? I would say of course he is. After all, NO ONE IN THE WORLD is good enough to consistently have an ERA of 0.40. At one point, and it may be in October, he will have a bad outing.
And next year, as a starter, he will give up runs. And he will lose games.
|
|
$heriff Tom
Administrator
Groom ba ya ya ya
Posts: 16,173
|
Post by $heriff Tom on Sept 28, 2007 9:38:42 GMT -5
Santana is not just "already very good." He is the best pitcher in baseball. You would be trading away the unproven, for the proven.
Again, Joba could regress, he could even out, or he can get hurt. In return, you get a 28 year old machine. Since when do the Yankees worry about money??
Santana wont hit the market. The Twins are trying to trade him, and whoever deals for him will have an opportunity to work out an extension.
|
|
MSBNYY
Administrator
El Guapo
Posts: 15,545
|
Post by MSBNYY on Sept 28, 2007 9:49:34 GMT -5
Santana could get hurt as well. All things being equal, Santana would be the first pitcher I would want in all of baseball. He's not the best pitcher this year, the past few years on top of it, and the fact that he's a lefty, I can't think of a pitcher I'd rather see in pinstripes. That said, his ERA is a half run higher this year than last year, he's WHIP is higher, and he's giving up more hits/inning.
His numbers are still great, but could this be the sign of a decline?
Think about the dollars involved in this kind of a trade. The Yanks CAN afford him. But this is a team that made the playoffs 13 straight years without a pitcher of this caliber.
An extension probably would be more than 5 years and could be $25 million per. Given the ridiculous deals from last year, I don't think a 7 year, 175 million deal is outrageous. Maybe even 8 years at $200 million. The Yankees got creamed with Giambi.
Joba seems to have the "I can play in NY" intangible.
I think Hughes has it too.
Does Santana? I would guess yes, but you don't know at this time.
Why commit close to $200 million to one player, AND give up a prospect with ace potential?
I'm not arguing that Joba and Hughes are "proven." Of course they aren't. Nor are they at the level of Santana today.
But I would rather be patient with the guys we have and risk letting Santana go to the free agent market. Let another team, one with a budget, blow their load on him like the Rangers did with ARod.
|
|
$heriff Tom
Administrator
Groom ba ya ya ya
Posts: 16,173
|
Post by $heriff Tom on Sept 28, 2007 9:54:11 GMT -5
A lot of Yankee fans will dismiss this as out of hand, due to love for Joba. Here's the deal though. If, as baseball fans, if Joba was a Cub and they were reading the Cubs were offered Santana for Joba the Yankee fan would admit in a heartbeat, more often than not, that the Cubs need to do that deal.
You dont say no to the chance to get the best pitcher in baseball. Or at least not so easy. Its easy now cause Joba did what he did. But the fact that he did what he did, has made him a possible chip to get the best pitcher in the game right now. Some would call the Yankees foolish not to do it, especially as money means nothing to them (see the price of the bullpen, which is more than most team payrolls, for starters)
|
|
MSBNYY
Administrator
El Guapo
Posts: 15,545
|
Post by MSBNYY on Sept 28, 2007 10:02:11 GMT -5
I agree a lot of Yankee fans would dismiss due to love for Joba.
There are other things to think about. Santana has been at best, mediocre in the second half. He hasn't been the best pitcher in baseball. The last time he dominated for a month was in June, and that was when he was dealing with interleague games. His ERA since July 1 is just 3.94. It's 4.94 in September, and has got worse each month since June ended.
It's wrong to say money means nothing to the Yankees. If that were true, they probably would have Beltran and Manny right now. The key difference between the Yankees and other teams is that they are willing to spend if they feel the player will improve the team, and can absorb the cost more easily when a player like Giambi or Pavano tanks.
Uptown told me he read an article a few months back that Santana may have an elbow issue.
Obviously Joba has injury concerns too as is well known. But it doesn't make sense to give up your top prospects for a guy that will be available anyway.
Another big difference.
If Joba tanks, he can still be traded, or even released.
If Santana tanks, you have Giambi II.
|
|
$heriff Tom
Administrator
Groom ba ya ya ya
Posts: 16,173
|
Post by $heriff Tom on Sept 28, 2007 10:10:08 GMT -5
Uptown told me he read an article a few months back that Santana may have an elbow issue.
Yeah, and I heard from my daughter Santa is coming soon. Sorry, you need to do better than that.
Yankees dont have Beltran but still overspent for Damon. They dont have Manny, but they drown guys like Abreu in money.
Sorry, but you can not dismiss the chance to get baseballs best pitcher as out of hand.
|
|
|
Post by nyyanksagain on Sept 28, 2007 10:26:31 GMT -5
this is merely a rumor not even to be spoken about as an issue...
this will never ever happen in anyones wild dreams even
|
|
|
Post by kingdzbws on Sept 28, 2007 10:26:41 GMT -5
For a guy who's had exactly 23 innings in the BIGS there's a ton of dick sucking going on. He's good.....he's not GOD.
Between Kay's Deep Throating Joba to a choice between the reigning Cy Young (who had a bad half a year, boo-hoo he's done!) and a BABY two months removed from A - Ball, I'm starting to get sick.
If Joba tanks, he can still be traded, or even released.
If Santana tanks, you have Giambi II.
If Santana plays to form, you'll have Beckett II
If Joba tanks, he can be released for ZERO.
I agree with Tom: >>>>"Santana is not just "already very good." He is the best pitcher in baseball. You would be trading away the unproven, for the proven."
IF this was any other teams this would be a pretty clear choice, hands down, but no - the Yankee blinders out on, Joba is Jesus, and Santana is mediocre AT BEST.
But the Arbitor has spoken................
|
|
$heriff Tom
Administrator
Groom ba ya ya ya
Posts: 16,173
|
Post by $heriff Tom on Sept 28, 2007 10:31:18 GMT -5
this will never ever happen in anyones wild dreams even
And why not?
Twins want to get a score for Santana. They know its unlikely he will re-sign with them. They wont trade him away for bit parts. Of course they are going to try for a home run.
At the same time, the Yankees would be able to get the best pitcher in baseball in return.
Whats so outlandish here? The rumor IS out there.
|
|
MSBNYY
Administrator
El Guapo
Posts: 15,545
|
Post by MSBNYY on Sept 28, 2007 11:10:43 GMT -5
Abreu was a trade and not a long term deal. He could be gone as early as the end of 2007. Damon was MUCH cheaper than Beltran. More bang for the buck.
The reason they don't have Beltran and Manny is because they didn't want to pay for them, despite the talent.
No one is saying dismissing getting baseball's best pitcher, but here's a guy that has had elbow surgery in the past, and has pitched progressively worse as the year went on. He isn't even close to the best pitcher in baseball in the second half. Santana does have a history of elbow problems, including a past surgery.
There may be some damaged goods here.
There are no Yankee blinders at all. Not one post in this thread involves any Yankee dick sucking.
You can change this to Buchholz to Boston. It wouldn't make it any smarter.
To make a deal like that worth it, you MUST sign him to a long term deal, and that won't happen unless you do something dumb like 7-8 years at $25 million per. After THAT second half, for a guy who will be in his mid-late 30s at the end of that deal, still getting ridiculous money.
It might be a different situation if the guy wasn't on the cusp of free agency, but he is.
|
|
$heriff Tom
Administrator
Groom ba ya ya ya
Posts: 16,173
|
Post by $heriff Tom on Sept 28, 2007 11:16:58 GMT -5
Eh, sorry, I dont want Boston getting Santana for Bucholz.
You want that trade done? Have fun dealing with Santana! Bucholz is actually projected better than Joba (even after this start for Joba) but again, potential is just that. Santana is results, and put him in Boston and the Yankees are losing the division again next year.
|
|
|
Post by kingdzbws on Sept 28, 2007 11:19:20 GMT -5
The Arbitor has spoken................ Slurp
|
|
MSBNYY
Administrator
El Guapo
Posts: 15,545
|
Post by MSBNYY on Sept 28, 2007 11:28:36 GMT -5
Don't get me wrong on one thing--projections for both these guys are amazing, and it's not like I'd want Boston getting Santana either. But the looming long term deal, combined with Santana's elbow history and worrisome second half leads to the potential for a disaster.
As outstanding as Santana has been so far in his career, there IS risk involved. You have to think about the end of the contract as well as the beginning.
First, I would rather wait out the year, keep my prospect, and go for it on the open market. I would let my rival take that risk of losing the money AND the prospect.
For the most part, Boston always has a number one super ace. Yeah, I don't want them having Santana, but I also don't think it's the right move to base your own moves on cockblocking another team. The Yanks have done that in the past, and I think they got burned.
And let's not forget that winning the division or not, the Yankees were 12 games better than Boston since mid May.
|
|
|
Post by Chris on Sept 28, 2007 11:39:57 GMT -5
I am on the "This Will Never Happen" side of the coin for a reason yet to be considered. Why the hell would the TWINS do this?
Santana has the possibility of being a once in a lifetime type pitcher. We've already conceded in another thread, that a proven big-time starter is much harder to come by than a proven big-time reliever...and Joba isn't exactly proven as a reliever although he's generated a great deal of excitement over a small body of work. There are absolutely no guarantees as to Joba's quality as a major league starter.
If I'm the Twins I blow this rumor off and roll the dice with re-signing Santana when he's a free agent.
Tom, what's the source of this rumor. I'd love to read this.
It's funny to me that Yankee fans (and I'm not saying you Tom...I'm talking about the fact that these rumors seem to pop up often) always seem to feel that any trade is possible just because they thought it up. Remember back to when everyone thought we were going to get the second comings of Babe Ruth and Cy Young for Erick Almonte because he was adequate in subbing for an injured Jeter?
|
|
|
Post by Domi on Sept 28, 2007 11:40:50 GMT -5
Santana is not hitting the open market. The only way to get him would be to trade for him.
|
|
|
Post by Chris on Sept 28, 2007 11:41:48 GMT -5
Or Nick Johnson....weren't we supposed a handful of future HOFers for him as well?
|
|
|
Post by Domi on Sept 28, 2007 11:42:25 GMT -5
If I'm the Twins I blow this rumor off and roll the dice with re-signing Santana when he's a free agent. It's already been reported that the Twins plan to shop Santana this off-season, as they won't have the money to re-sign him.
|
|
|
Post by Chris on Sept 28, 2007 11:43:48 GMT -5
Searching for this alleged Joba trade, I ran across this:
The Yankees have no reason to throw down a chunk of change on a free agent starter this winter. They're all set for 2008 with a formidable rotation of Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Chien-Ming Wang, Mike Mussina, and Andy Pettitte. I think we've learned by now that there's really no such thing as a surplus of starting pitching, so I imagine the Yanks will only trade Kei Igawa in the right deal. Buster Olney said this morning that there was a 50% chance of Igawa going to the Padres soon. Additionally, it will be nice to have Ian Kennedy around as the sixth starter.
|
|
|
Post by 9 on Sept 28, 2007 11:46:58 GMT -5
Santana is actually the ONLY guy I would consider trading Joba for. But only with a deal done first, so we wouldn't have to pony up. I'd rather keep him, but as Tom pointed out, you don't hang up the phone on that offer.
|
|
|
Post by Chris on Sept 28, 2007 11:50:49 GMT -5
Speaking of Joba...I was not pleased with his demonstrative act on the mound last night after sitting Upton down. That act is what bugs the fuck out of me about K-Rod. K-Rod will behave as though he just won the lottery in all 50 states after closing a meaningless mid-season game with a large lead in the standings. I know Joba is young and he's pumped, and he broke new ground last night in both pitching consecutive nights and getting out of trouble he'd worked himself into...but uhhhh...act like ya been there before. That's part of Joba's appeal in the first place...seeming unphased and nonchalant about his dominance on the mound.
|
|
|
Post by Domi on Sept 28, 2007 11:52:43 GMT -5
Speaking of Joba...I was not pleased with his demonstrative act on the mound last night after sitting Upton down. That act is what bugs the fuck out of me about K-Rod. K-Rod will behave as though he just won the lottery in all 50 states after closing a meaningless mid-season game with a large lead in the standings. I know Joba is young and he's pumped, and he broke new ground last night in both pitching consecutive nights and getting out of trouble he'd worked himself into...but uhhhh...act like ya been there before. That's part of Joba's appeal in the first place...seeming unphased and nonchalant about his dominance on the mound. He's been pretty "demonstrative" in just about all of his appearances this season...
|
|
MSBNYY
Administrator
El Guapo
Posts: 15,545
|
Post by MSBNYY on Sept 28, 2007 12:04:08 GMT -5
Santana essentially IS on the open market already because he is going to get paid in an extension as if he were a free agent. Because of that, the Twins should not be expecting even close to fair market value. I don't think the Twins are dealing from a major position of strength unless there is some sort of run among high priced contenders for his services.
Then you have to evaluate who is in the running and the package on TOP of the money.
And yeah, Joba has been a fairly high energy player. I like that. Shows he gives a shit.
|
|
|
Post by Chris on Sept 28, 2007 12:07:28 GMT -5
"He's been pretty "demonstrative" in just about all of his appearances this season... "
Not the case....this is a recent thing (although I've seen pictures of him in his Huskers uniform acting that way). At first we'd become accustom to seeing Joba throw a pitch and, from the momentum of his delivery, nonchalantly walk off, head down, to the left side of the mound. I always thought that was kinda cool...kinda like the way Larry Bird would let a three-point shot fly, turn his back and walk away before the ball actually drained the net.
|
|
$heriff Tom
Administrator
Groom ba ya ya ya
Posts: 16,173
|
Post by $heriff Tom on Sept 28, 2007 12:13:38 GMT -5
And yeah, Joba has been a fairly high energy player. I like that. Shows he gives a shit.
And you never bitched when the likes of K-Rod or Urbina did the same thing? Oh, I get it....they were not wearing pinstripes, so they were the Devils spawn.
Cho, you were not the only one disgruntled with Joba's one man party on the mound after the Upton slash - add me to the list, and Upton as well. The Yankee announcers sheepishly admitted his act is probably not going over well, and he'll probably end up paying for it soon.
I mean, Beckett already hollered at him for it, calling him a "fat C - N T"
|
|
MSBNYY
Administrator
El Guapo
Posts: 15,545
|
Post by MSBNYY on Sept 28, 2007 12:17:51 GMT -5
Who cares what Beckett thinks?
|
|
|
Post by Chris on Sept 28, 2007 12:22:06 GMT -5
I didn't see it live Tom, so I didn't catch the announcers remarks. But I did see on the replay that Upton was steamed! I actually got a chuckle out of how pissed Upton was, then staring out at Joba as he walked off the mound...but Upton had a valid point.
I absolutely LOATHE K-Rod for those same antics. And if you've ever seen K-Rod live, you've probably also seen his ridiculous dramatic religious ritual followed up by a full on sprint from the bullie to the mound. That kid is a fucking clown....great pitcher...but an annoying clown.
Regarding Joba: I don't mind the throwing at (errr...near) the head of Youkilis (this has been discussed in other threads and I know you and I disagree on that Tom) and that is, I believe, what Beckett was pissed about. Beckett is hardly one to talk, however, as he is quite the showboat himself. But yeah...Joba can tone down all the hootin' and hollerin' and it's a bit hypocritical to chalk it up to being an "energetic player" when K-Rod is lambasted for pulling an Oil Can Boyd on the mound.
|
|