MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Jan 30, 2008 10:16:24 GMT -5
Gomez is 18 and several YEARS away. He's never had a great year, and right now, is high risk/high reward.
Tom--any chance you can cut and paste the reports from BA on here? All 4 of these guys are Mets top ten guys.
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Post by grover on Jan 30, 2008 10:28:19 GMT -5
This could turn out as a fine deal for the Twins. The reason this rates lower than the Yankee or Red Sox packages is that those guys are ready to step in, and the Mets guys are still a bit raw. Still, don't sleep on the Twins ability to bring out the best in young guys.
Also, the Twins project themselves being back in the mix in a few years, and they figure getting Santana out of the AL would be easier than sending him to the Yanks or Sox which would make it a deal that would come back to haunt them.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Jan 30, 2008 10:31:20 GMT -5
Balls, stop whining about all this "he's only 18" crap. I am not saying these guys are going to be the next version of the following guys, but Alex Rodriguez and yes, even Johan Santana, were once 18 year old prospects too.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Jan 30, 2008 10:32:42 GMT -5
Two #4 starters and 2 big risks. Unless BOTH risks turn into superstars, the Twins got hosed. It's not just the MLB readiness of the Yanks and Sox offers. It's the fact that these guys have more ceilings than the guys the Mets had.
I don't think the AL/NL thing is a factor. It would be if the Twins turned down equal offers. But here, they lost out on BETTER offers.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Jan 30, 2008 10:39:28 GMT -5
Unless BOTH risks turn into superstars, the Twins got hosed Really? I think one of the two becoming a superstar makes the trade a success. And in case you forgot YOU NEED # 4 starters, idiot. How would they need 2, when the Yankee offer involved only one potential superstar, yet you are claiming it was superior?? Melky is a waste, and aside from Hughes (the one potential superstar) you had....#4 starters! On paper you can say the Yankee offer was safer, but if one of these Met hands becomes a superstar, he did what Hughes may have done coming from the Yankees. Idiot.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Jan 30, 2008 10:45:19 GMT -5
Here's scouting on these Met farmhands.
2. Deolis Guerra, rhp Born: April 17, 1989 • B-T: R-R • Ht: 6-5 • Wt: 200
Signed: Venezuela, 2005 • Signed by: Rafael Bournigal
Background: Last April, many 17-year-old Americans were heading off to high school proms. Guerra, who signed for $700,000 in 2005, was starting on Opening Day for high Class A St. Lucie. He also pitched in the Futures Game in San Francisco, recovering from a bout with shoulder tendinitis that sidelined him for most of May.
Strengths: Guerra has two present above-average pitches that could become well above-average. His fastball had below-average velocity for most of his first season, but now it ranges from 89-94 mph and touches 96. He features excellent arm speed on his changeup, his best offering since he signed, and it should become a big league out pitch once he commands it.
Weaknesses: While Guerra's curveball remains a below-average pitch, he has shown an ability to spin the ball and it projects as an average offering. At 18, Guerra still is learning the finer arts of pitching, such as holding runners, fielding his position and pitch sequences.
The Future: Guerra has thrown just 179 pro innings and has plenty of projection in his big-shouldered frame. The Mets have monitored Guerra's workload carefully, and he has plenty of projection in his big-shouldered frame. His next goal will be to stay healthy and pass the 100-inning level.
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3. Carlos Gomez, of Born: Dec. 4, 1985 • B-T: R-R • Ht: 6-4 • Wt: 195
Signed: Dominican Republic, 2002 • Signed by: Eddy Toledo Background: Gomez finished his fast-track trip to the major leagues in 2007 and was the National League's youngest player when he debuted in May. He broke the hamate bone in his left hand on a checked swing in July, however, and missed two months following surgery.
Strengths: A true five-tool athlete, Gomez has game-changing speed and a well above-average arm, tools that help make him a premium defender in center field. He also has excellent bat speed that leads to projections of at least average power, if not more. Scouts said Gomez brought needed energy to the Mets.
Weaknesses: Hitting will be the last tool to develop for Gomez. He's still searching for the balance between aggressiveness and plate discipline. While he showed increased patience in 2007, it came at the expense of his power production.
The Future: Gomez likely will compete with Lastings Milledge for the right-field job in spring training. Milledge has more offensive polish, which could push Gomez back to Triple-A at the season's outset.
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4. Kevin Mulvey, rhp Born: May 26, 1985 • B-T: R-R • Ht: 6-1 • Wt: 195
Drafted: Villanova, 2006 (2nd round) • Signed by: Scott Hunter Background: The Mets' top pick in the 2006 draft, Mulvey reached Triple-A New Orleans at the end of his first full season and pitched 13 scoreless, walk-less innings, including a playoff start. He was the organization's pitcher of the year and a Futures Gamer as well.
Strengths: Mulvey throws four pitches for strikes and keeps everything down. His fastball, which sits at 87-91 mph and touches 94, features good sink and run. He dominated righthanders, limiting them to a .224 average and no homers. His mid-70s curveball with 11-to-5 break and his low-80s slider both are average pitches, and at times his slider is a put-away offering. His changeup shows signs of being average. His competitiveness makes his whole greater than the sum of his parts.
Weaknesses: Mulvey has trouble against lefthanders because he can't work them inside easily. At times his changeup is too firm. He has lost 2-3 mph off his fastball from his days at Villanova, but he could gain some of that back as he gets accustomed to the pro workload.
The Future: He'll open 2008 in Triple-A, but Mulvey could get a look in the rotation by midseason. He projects as a No. 3 or 4 starter.
******************************************** 7. Philip Humber, rhp Born: Dec. 21, 1982 • B-T: R-R • Ht: 6-4 • Wt: 225
Drafted: Rice, 2004 (1st round) • Signed by: Dave Lottsfeldt Background: Humber won the championship game of the 2003 College World Series and went third overall in the 2004 draft. He made just 15 pro starts before needing Tommy John surgery in July 2005, and he hasn't been the same pitcher since. He made his first big league start in September, giving up five runs in four innings.
Strengths: Humber still has the best curveball in the organization, and he has learned to shorten it up a bit and throw it for quality strikes. He's learning to spot his fastball better down in the zone, where it has more life. His changeup, which he has used since junking the splitter he had in college, has developed into an average pitch.
Weaknesses: At times Humber still tries to pitch up in the strike zone, and he doesn't have that kind of velocity anymore. His fastball ranges from 87-91 mph after he used to touch 94-95 at Rice. He's still refining his command two years after his elbow reconstruction.
The Future: Humber is likely ready for on-the-job training in the majors, but he'll have to earn the spot in spring training. He now projects as a back-of-the-rotation starter.
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Post by grover on Jan 30, 2008 10:45:25 GMT -5
This also puts a lot faith on the Yankee 3 starters, which is nice, but it also put a ton of pressure on them, because they now have to show everyone that they have what it takes and the best pitcher in Baseball wasn't needed. We shall see what they are made of, and hopefully they pan out to be what Yankee fans are saying they will, because Pettitte is not going to have his head on straight and Wang will crumble under the pressure.
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Post by jwmcc on Jan 30, 2008 10:47:28 GMT -5
Not to mention there's talk now that Joba might not even be in the starting rotation for the beginning of the season. And with the "rules" on the other two who will they be throwing out to get through those middle innings?
2008=fuck all
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Post by grover on Jan 30, 2008 10:49:09 GMT -5
Rules because Girardi blew out his young arms in Florida. Shit, even with no rules the kids may be wrecked, and we might be fucked either way.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Jan 30, 2008 10:55:36 GMT -5
It's called patience. Three 21 year olds are not going to pitch 200 innings each. It takes time to build. At 21 years old, Santana pitched less than 90 innings. Roger Clemens pitched 133.33 innings. He didn't top the 200 inning mark until he was 24.
2008 could very well be fuck all. But people said the same thing in 2007 and 2006. There are several candidates that are at or near MLB readiness for the pen as the season goes on.
Joba may start in the pen so he can work as a starter in the second 2/3 of the season. It's a way of limiting innings.
But it's not just about 2008. It's about 2009, 10, and beyond.
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Post by grover on Jan 30, 2008 11:05:57 GMT -5
Yeah but these rules are in place because of the baggage Girardi brings. Who knows how he is going to handle our young arms.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Jan 30, 2008 11:16:24 GMT -5
Probably not well.
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Post by grover on Jan 30, 2008 11:32:12 GMT -5
And that's why I wanted this deal done. If there are rules behind these young pitchers, maybe we'll see what happens, but what's going to happen if we are in the thick of things and we need Hughes to go that extra distance and Joba is not available out of the pen? Is Girardi going to say fuck the rules?
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Jan 30, 2008 13:05:49 GMT -5
I think that would depend on the time of year. If Joba starts in the pen, I doubt it would be for too long. Plus, assuming no injuries, we'll have six starters. I've heard rumors of a six man rotation to deal with the innings. Girardi is going to have to actually manage the team until these guys can build their arms up to throw a 200 inning season.
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Jan 30, 2008 14:42:51 GMT -5
wow guys. im really stunned the mutts pulled off this deal (if they sign him). i didnt think they had the minor league talent to do it.
while i actually agree with msb, that the twins fucked themselves here and got less than they could have, they could still make out on this deal BIG TIME. while the yanks and sox had better offers with more major league ready players, the younger talent the mets supplied probably have a higher ceiling but obviously comes with much more risk because of their ages.
either way, i would expect 1 or 2 of the players the mets dealt to make some big time contributions for the twins down the road.
im so glad johan is not in boston. and i dont mind we didnt get him. what the twins wanted from us was mighty steep. lets roll with the kids and if the season is a waste, so be it. our future wont be.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Jan 30, 2008 14:59:22 GMT -5
Thing is though, I don't know how high their ceilings are.
Guerra has good projection, but it's all theory. Even Baseball America's evaluation is very vague. Not enough innings under his belt to really figure out where he is.
Gomez is interesting, but also not necessarily a stud. Potential, but his bat is nowhere near big league ready. Seems to be a very good defender. But unlike Melky, there is no chance this guy is going to step in and try to replace Torii Hunter NOW, even if this guy eventually does have a better career than Melky.
And I agree 100 percent with rolling the dice with what we have. I do think 2008 may not pan out, but beyond that looks a lot better. Top pitchers don't seem to be making it to free agency anymore. Developing them is a must.
Mulvey and Humber just aren't all that impressive.
For the Twins to do well on this deal, I think BOTH these guys need to reach full potential, which is years away. And not every player does that, especially when you're looking at 18-19 year olds.
Even if these guys are good MLB players, the real question to ask in a few years is whether these guys, at their best, combined with waiting the years it takes for them to get there, is worthy of one of the best pitchers in baseball.
For the Twins? The odds are that this deal will look like a massive bust. Obviously, we can't be certain now, but I wouldn't be shocked.
For the Mets? Assuming they sign Santana in their window, this deal could be the steal of the 21st century to date. All Santana has to do for that to be the case is to pitch at the same level he has pitched for his time as a Met.
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Post by thecaptain15 on Jan 30, 2008 15:06:48 GMT -5
larry the reason the Twins took this deal is because the Yanks pulled Hughes off the table and rumor is the Sox pulled Lester once they heard the Yanks were out as their main purpose was to block the move here..I also am glad he ended up in the NL and I said that was my #1 choice all along....
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Jan 30, 2008 15:36:49 GMT -5
Mulvey and Humber just aren't all that impressive.
Scuse me??
They are comparable to Ian Kennedy.
Again, aside from Hughes the Yankee package was not so tremendous. And AGAIN, even if they end up #3 - # 4 starters, you still need those starters to fill a rotation and win!
I have to laugh to hear you talking about Phil Humber like you know ANYTHING about him. I have been following Phil Humber since his days at Rice with Wade Townsend and Jeff Niemann in a 3-headed monster of a pitching staff.
So go screw.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Jan 30, 2008 15:39:58 GMT -5
They are comparable to Ian Kennedy. ================
Says you.
And you may have been following Phil Humber too, and if you had, you would know that the report, in your own post, says he has never fully recovered from TJ surgery and only projects as a #4. Sorry, but you cannot spin this one into a good deal for the Twins.
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$heriff Tom
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Post by $heriff Tom on Jan 30, 2008 15:44:31 GMT -5
And what do you think Kennedy profiles as, you jackoff?
Also, even the report above has Mulvey as a #3. Thats all semantics. I spend a few hours a week reading the voluminous subscriber content and paper BA offers, and more time listening to prospect PODCASTS than you do watching Dukes of Hazzard reruns, and that is a lot. Humber and Mulvey are two talented guys, akin to Ian Kennedy, with probably better STUFF.
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Jan 30, 2008 15:54:25 GMT -5
larry the reason the Twins took this deal is because the Yanks pulled Hughes off the table and rumor is the Sox pulled Lester once they heard the Yanks were out as their main purpose was to block the move here..I also am glad he ended up in the NL and I said that was my #1 choice all along.... thx. didnt know this. was out of town a few days and out of the loop.
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Jan 30, 2008 15:55:49 GMT -5
even if gomez has a better career then melky? ?? with his speed and arm, even if he hits .250, he will probably have a better career then melky. his speed is game changing.
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Jan 30, 2008 15:58:45 GMT -5
You really think so though, if he hits .250? Speed is great, but Melky is currently a starting CF with pretty good defense, very good arm, hitting .270. He doesn't have much power, but he's a solid player. Time will tell.
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Post by thecaptain15 on Jan 30, 2008 16:22:59 GMT -5
Gomez defineitely has more upside then Melky but Humber and Mulvey are not Hughes..........They always say always get the best player and not the quantity. Hughes was the best player out of all the offers the Twins received.......They got greedy and thought by luring in the Sox that the Yanks would panic and kick in Kennedy too except Cashman and Hal brought Hank to his senses before he pulled an old school George move....
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Post by Bad Mouth Larry on Jan 30, 2008 16:23:00 GMT -5
gomez has incredible speed. i think he could steal 60 bases if he hits .260. thats crazy. if he gains plate discipline. watch out!!!
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Post by thecaptain15 on Jan 30, 2008 17:00:34 GMT -5
Bill Plaschke just hit the nail on the head on Around the Horn..He said he is tired of everyone yelling the "rich get richer and the poor get poorer, when it is stupid managment decisions that are the reason"...I chuckled when he went on to say that the Twins should immediately cut all ticket prices in half...LOL
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Post by thecaptain15 on Jan 30, 2008 17:04:48 GMT -5
In his follow up when they mentioned the Yankees he said Hank Steinbrenner is probably going nuts saying they got Santana "for a bag of balls" and could have given them more without giving up Hughes (which I agree with)...
Also Riaele just added that he spoke to Gammons and Gammons said that the 4 prospects the Mets gave the Twins none of them would be in the Yankees Top 5 and probably even the Top 10 in Yankee system......
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Jan 30, 2008 17:07:53 GMT -5
Very interesting reports. We'll see where Gomez ends up. But yeah, the Yanks and Sox both have a right to be pissed.
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Post by thecaptain15 on Jan 30, 2008 17:11:57 GMT -5
I think if the Yanks offered Kennedy, Marquez, Horne and Melky that is better then what the Mets gave........
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MSBNYY
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Post by MSBNYY on Jan 30, 2008 17:22:01 GMT -5
No doubt. Substitute Jackson for Melky, and given how low people seem to think of Melky, that's a much better deal.
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